Tightrope walk for BJP in caste-ridden UP

At a time when it was trying to placate a section of the farmers, the BJP now has the task of doing damage control over the actions of the man projected by the national leadership as the Brahmin face of the UP dispensation. Brahmins make up 10% of the state’s population and are considered ideologically inclined towards the BJP; but they are also said to be somewhat alienated by the Yogi regime that has been accused of promoting domination of the Thakurs, the other prominent high-caste community, to which the CM belongs.

The BJP is looking at a caste chess board in Uttar Pradesh but some of the bishops and pawns are in danger of falling. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s unilateral revoking of the farm laws in a television address on November 19 was certainly guided by the desire to cut the party’s losses in the state from where it has the maximum number of MPs. The PM would know that his 2014 conquest of Uttar Pradesh was facilitated by the Jat farming community of the western part of the state, who gave the campaign a certain momentum and acted as force multipliers for the BJP following the Muzaffarnagar riots of 2013.

That is one caste group that has certainly been vocal and up in arms against the farm laws and their revocation is designed to offset some of the anger and if possible, win back support in the community for the BJP. It’s a challenge as the farm agitation also worked to repair some of the Hindu-Muslim cleavages in west UP, but as the ruling party in the state and Centre, there is time for the BJP to attempt to create new narratives.

That is why the SIT report about the Lakhimpur Kheri violence that took place on October 3, has turned out to be a spanner in the works. On that day, a convoy of vehicles hit and killed four farm protesters and a journalist in Lakhimpur Kheri district. One of the vehicles was linked to the son of Union Minister of State for Home Ajay Mishra Teni, a Brahmin strongman of the region. An FIR was registered and the Yogi Adityanath government set up an SIT. But as the matter reached the courts, the Supreme Court started monitoring the SIT and appointed three IPS officers because Chief Justice NV Ramana said it is important after such an incident “to preserve the faith and trust of people in the criminal administration of the justice system.”

Now, this SIT has described the deaths as resulting from a “pre-planned conspiracy” which potentially extends the dragnet to the minister himself and changes the charges of causing death by rash and negligent driving to murder and several more serious crimes under the IPC, including criminal conspiracy. The case is now a ticking time bomb — implying as it does in election season that a section of the BJP “conspired” to murder farmers— and the minister himself has exploded. He was captured on camera abusing and manhandling a journalist last week when asked about the SIT report. Indeed, days before the October 3 killings, he had threatened the farmers from a public platform. By any standards of propriety, Ajay Mishra should be removed from his charge. Besides, his threats to farmers then and journalists now clearly reveal that he is not fit for public office.

At a time, therefore, when it was trying to placate a section of the farmers, the BJP now has the task of ridding itself or doing damage control over the actions of the man who was projected by the national leadership as the Brahmin face of the UP dispensation. Brahmins make up 10 per cent of the state’s population and are considered ideologically inclined towards the BJP; but they are also said to be somewhat alienated by the Yogi regime that has been accused of promoting what is referred to as ‘Thakurvaad’, or the domination of the Thakurs, the other prominent high-caste community in the state to which the chief minister belongs. The BJP is, therefore, struggling to ensure that bits and pieces do not disappear from its so far successful and gigantic social engineering project in UP.

The party has an impressive vote share of 40 per cent and it is a task for any Opposition to defeat that. When Opposition votes are divided, it works well for the BJP in a multi-polar polity. But in this election so far, the BSP led by Mayawati appears to be taking a backseat while the SP led by Akhilesh Yadav is leading an energetic charge and has stitched up alliances with small one caste-based parties. The UP contest is beginning to look bi-polar which suggests that if the BJP drops some vote share of around 10 per cent and the SP picks up by that percentage (it had only 22 per cent in the 2017 state polls when Akhilesh Yadav as CM was unseated following), then it can be a very close call.

With Parliament in session, the SIT report has given the Opposition a new issue to rally round. Rahul Gandhi has led the charge, while sister Priyanka has consistently been on the ground in Uttar Pradesh. Yet the direct benefits for the national party in Uttar Pradesh are limited in this election. Indeed, in some constituencies where Priyanka Gandhi has travelled and flagged a particular issue, the matter has acquired urgency, but the benefit is going to the SP-led front as a thumb rule of politics is that people do not want to waste their votes and look for winnable parties and candidates.

The other noticeable element of the BJP campaign is that the PM appears to have decided to relegate the chief minister to a supporting act. It is worth noting that the mega spectacle organised in Varanasi for the opening of the Kashi corridor was in a sense a religious event. But although the chief minister is actually the leader of a religious order, he was pushed to the sidelines even as the event was choreographed with the PM at the centre of a new Hindu consciousness. If there is indeed some competition for who is the mightier ‘Hindu Hriday Samrat’, a phrase that the BJP itself uses, then at Kashi, the PM certainly came on top.

The undercurrents within the BJP are also an element in the politics of this election. Even if the BJP wins, will the MLAs be loyal to the CM or New Delhi. Ticket distribution, therefore, is key to what will unfold within the BJP in the run-up to polling day. Will New Delhi decide tickets in a way that undermines Yogi or will he also be allowed a say and his choices? Ajay Mishra, incidentally, is not close to Yogi but has been patronised by Home Minister Amit Shah who had facilitated the Modi conquest of UP in 2014. History sheeter and strongman that Ajay Mishra is, he must be rather miffed that a BJP regime dared to file an FIR, establish an SIT, and land him in the current mess. Currently, there are wheels within wheels in Uttar Pradesh and many imponderables.