Threat to Chinese game plan
THE dissolution of Parliament in Nepal by KP Oli is a constitutional coup but no surprise, coming from an embattled Prime Minister. The power struggle between Oli and Nepal Communist Party (NCP) Chairman PK Dahal started soon after their two parties — CPN Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) and CPN (Maoist-Centre) — won the elections in a historic mandate in 2017 and then merged. The NCP’s rise on an anti-India, ultra-nationalist wave led by Oli also galvanised the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), with China gradually overtaking India in several spheres of influence. Beijing has invested heavily in the stability of the NCP and the Oli government to undercut further New Delhi’s fading footprint. India had resigned itself to the idea of five years of NCP rule, hoping, not expecting, a split in the party, though a leadership change was not ruled out.
Oli has proved to be an ineffective leader, fumbling with overwhelming majorities in both Houses of Parliament, six out of seven provincial governments and local bodies. Oli’s personal agenda not only antagonised members of his own party, including former Prime Ministers Madhav Nepal, JN Khanal and Dahal, but also members of the Opposition, including another Leftist ex-PM, BR Bhattarai. But President BD Bhandari and the redoubtable Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi, who rescued Oli from multiple crises, remain steadfast allies. Last week, Oli reintroduced an ordinance on the Constitutional Council Act that he had deviously promulgated and withdrawn in April which changes the quorum for appointment to statutory bodies. He immediately filled 45 posts even as he was being questioned over his conduct and performance by the Party Secretariat and Standing Committee where his faction is in minority. The last straw which broke Oli’s back was when 91 of the 170 party lawmakers presented a no-trust motion replacing him as Prime Minister with his nemesis, Dahal, and also the new leader of the parliamentary party. With presidential blessing, Oli dissolved the House in which the NCP has a near two-thirds majority and two years to go. Next day, he addressed the nation, justifying his drastic action, but not before political and public anger had swept the streets.
As Nepal’s new Constitution does not provide for dissolving the House, the Supreme Court has been flooded with petitions. Oli is likely to be the caretaker PM till the mid-term elections are held in April/May during a pandemic that is nowhere under control, for which his government is to blame. While seven Cabinet ministers from the Dahal faction have resigned from the government, two ministers have not. Plenty of factional crossover has taken place within the party and more will follow, depending on the court verdict. If the court rejects Oli’s plea and restores Parliament, he will have no legs to stand on and will be compelled to resign. On the other hand, if Oli’s decision is upheld, Nepal will undertake a dangerous election. Either way, the stability of the government and the party will be the casualties.
The origin of the Oli-Dahal power struggle goes back to early 2018 when Dahal, as NCP president, considered friendlier to India than Oli, was invited first on an official visit and spoke at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), New Delhi. In response to a question on power-sharing by me, he said: ‘yes, there is an agreement between Oli ji and me that we will be prime ministers for two-and-a-half years each.” The uneasy lull over this agreement continued till March 2019, when Oli refused to endorse Dahal’s nomination of communist stalwart and former Deputy PM BD Gautam to the Upper House. This was days before Oli was hospitalised for his second kidney transplant. I was in Kathmandu at the time and the grapevine had indicated that Madhav Nepal would become the next PM; Dahal, the permanent party chairman; and JN Khanal, the President-in-waiting. The Dahal group had written off Oli but in deference to his health, another ceasefire was declared. Then in November 2019, President Bhandari brokered the famous Oli-Dahal agreement which buried the power-sharing agreement and clarified their roles as Prime Minister and Executive Chairman with finality. But Oli refused to give up his party co-chair, encroaching on Dahal’s turf. In September 2020, a six-member NCP Task Force defined further the mandate of the two warring leaders.
But the two main crises were in April/May and July. The first was over the implementation of the agreement on one-man-one-post. The second was in July when the Dahal faction demanded Oli’s resignation over his allegation that India was trying to unseat his government. In both these crises, Yanqi, Bhandari and Gautam turned the elusive Pimpernel, played a crucial role in saving Oli and his government as well as preventing the break-up of the NCP — till Sunday’s blow-up.
China has made deep inroads in Nepal, broadening relations with all political parties, government institutions, security forces and civil society. The CCP and NCP have institutionalised their ties. Political and military delegations are expanding exchange programmes. Last year, Chinese tourists coming by air outnumbered the Indian ones. President Xi Jinping recently spoke to his counterpart Bhandari and Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held two virtual meetings with Pakistan, Nepal and Afghanistan on the pandemic. Chinese aid and investment now exceed India’s, but connectivity projects are yet to take off. Beijing has shed all inhibitions on interference in internal affairs as it attempts to improve its political and strategic profile in Nepal. The ongoing political turbulence could end up from being a serious jolt to undermining the Chinese game plan.
Whatever the outcome of the parliamentary and intra-party crises, it is advantage India. A change of guard will deal a new hand to India as Nepal sadly transits to a new mess.
