The potential global benefits of being the most populous country

THE year 2023 proved to be a great one for India on the global stage. For most, the obvious reason would be India’s G20 presidency and getting the most powerful countries in the world to agree on a declaration on contentious global issues. This major diplomatic coup showcased an ‘arrived’ India and won accolades for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Added to that was India’s Chandrayaan-3 success.

These are, of course, very important achievements, but the key global milestone of 2023 for India was becoming the largest country (in terms of population), pushing China to the second place. This is a game-changing happening, with many possibilities of global positivity for India in the years and decades to come.

A large population generally means a rising tide of problems in the understanding of most people in India. This is true domestically and obviously colours perceptions in the country. It, however, belies the fact that it is population that leads to market size and interest in a country as far as the world is concerned, more so when it is also coupled with growth and purchasing power.

As 2023 ended, nearly every major economic entity noted India as the major sweet spot in the global economy with significantly increasing salience for years to come. Of course, the key reasons include China continuing to face an economic downturn after the Covid-19 pandemic and Europeans suffering from the fallout of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. But the fact that India would be the third largest economy in the world, after the US and China, by 2030 is now a no-brainer; even more interesting are the projections that by 2070, India would be the second largest economy in the world, surpassing the US.

Basically, these large aggregates for India are the power of demography as even today, India is at place 145 out of 193 countries in the global per-capital income (nominal) ranking of countries.

Size matters in global recognition, but the key add-on is not just the aggregate but the placement. India’s size and that of its market did not jump exponentially in April 2023 when the UN recognised India as the most populous country in the world. India was and remains a huge market, but being the most populous country makes a tectonic difference in recognition, maybe not so much among economically wise corporate honchos, but among people across the world, and this brings about an attendant political recognition. In a sense, it is like the child who comes first in class and gets all the accolades or the Olympian who gets the gold medal, while the next best, no matter how good, must settle for the silver.

For people in India, there is every reason to believe that school-going children across the world have heard of our country. Really? Think of someone in Latin America or Africa who has had only one lesson in world geography. The chance that India hasn’t yet been covered cannot be dismissed, but China would be in the opening chapter on world geography. This would now change.

Being the most populous country in the world would even challenge the legitimisation of China’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council.

In 1945, when the UN charter was signed, India (of course, undivided) was the largest country in terms of population, but was a British colony. China, though fairly under the thumb of colonial powers, was nominally independent. Bestowing it with the permanent membership was portrayed as an act of inclusion. It being among the world’s largest economies is only a recent fact and its representation of the Global South is, in any case, under challenge by its own economic growth.

What has happened won’t change, but recognition as the most populous country in the world would give India a certain leadership status now onward. This first position also provides a special opportunity for setting the discourse, including putting forth a Global South perspective at the very beginning, and shaping global rules. It changes perceptions and perceptions matter critically in the world, particularly in global governance.

Throughout the history of multilateralism, Indian diplomats couldn’t argue against being asked to go second, but from now on, India would have the opportunity to ‘go first’.

At a recent conference in New Delhi, Chinese diplomats heard this and one of them appeared a trifle unhappy about the change. However, he soon broke into a smile, possibly realising that in the decades to come, his country would be at the top of another line of countries with the largest GDP, with India in the second place. The who’s who of the past may not savour this, but globalisation and demography make this trend secular. And for those holding their heads within the country and bemoaning the burgeoning population, do remember its possible global benefits; in any case, becoming No. 1 doesn’t alter the absolute numbers, but makes a huge and positive change in global perceptions.