The Oppn’s dark horse
I was surprised to receive a call from a middle-ranking AAP worker thanking me for questioning the BJP’s intention in hurling allegations against one of their star performers, Manish Sisodia, in what has come to be known as the Delhi Government’s excise policy scam. The ‘scam’ has not been proved, but since human nature propels us to believe the worst, guilt follows Sisodia even as he canvasses for AAP candidates in the Gujarat elections.
While Kejriwal is the first real challenger to Modi ahead of the 2024 elections, Nitish could well emerge as the Opposition’s consensus candidate.
I was at pains to impress on my interlocutor that I carry no brief for any party. It is crass injustice that troubles my conscience. Corruption is a serious charge to make against a servant of the people. Unfortunately, the charges are so frequent and common that people have stopped counting or bothering. And that is a pity.
Sisodia had the education portfolio. The hands-on job may have been entrusted to the Rhodes Scholar, Atishi Marlena, but the official face of the government is the minister in charge. Hence, the BJP’s need to attack Sisodia.
Education and health are the two bulwarks of a nation’s well-being and progress. Healthy and educated citizens make a difference when parameters of progress are defined and measured. These have been neglected by successive governments, both in the states and at the Centre. The AAP is the only party I know which has made significant progress in both spheres. Other state governments should emulate its achievements, instead of playing spoilsport.
What I gathered from the Centre’s hounding of Sisodia was that the regime was unhappy that the AAP had made an impression on the minds of the electorate, especially the poorer sections whose children were getting quality education. Instead of learning and spreading the good news to states ruled by its party, the regime decided to pooh-pooh AAP’s efforts and remove from the scene its main functionaries who enabled this change.
That was the purpose of my article. I was not propagating AAP’s political philosophy.
To challenge Modi in 2024, Arvind Kejriwal is the first leader of a recognised opposition party to throw his hat into the ring. He has made his intentions clear in no uncertain terms. Mamata Didi seems to have seen the light of day. She has distanced herself by remaining neutral in the contest for Vice-President. She continues to rule West Bengal. I do not see her hold loosening despite the ED’s interest in her nephew and two important ministers in her Cabinet. Corruption and misuse of power do not seem to matter to the electorate. Charisma of the leader and the power of the spoken word matter more.
Rahul Gandhi has not shown any interest in pole positions. He is happy ranting and raving. He talks about the things that matter to the people he addresses. Price rise, the dying economy and unemployment are all causes for concern. He harps on these issues but when the final tally is taken, his lack of ambition plays spoilsport. The Congress has steadily ceded ground to the AAP, first in Delhi, and then in Punjab. Can the AAP displace the Congress in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Haryana? The answer will decide Kejriwal’s fortunes in 2024.
A new candidate has emerged for the PM’s job (vacancy possible if the BJP makes more gaffes like the premature release of 11 convicts by the Gujarat Government in the Bilkis Bano case). This candidate hails from Telangana, speaks Hindustani fluently, and advertises the achievements of his state in good governance. If he can get the other southern states to support him, he can make up some lost time. Otherwise, he has his work cut out.
Right now, Kejriwal is the front runner. Unless, of course, a dark horse appears on the scene, or Prashant Kishor pulls a rabbit out of his hat! Nitish Kumar could be that dark horse.
When the BJP paid Uddhav Thackeray in his own coin, other vulnerable leaders got alerted. The BJP is the only party that enjoys vast resources — financially and organisationally — to entice ambitious and disgruntled elements in the Opposition to break ranks and cross over to its side. In Bihar, Nitish felt the heat. He calculated from the circumstances leading to his party becoming the BJP’s junior partner in the state that he was next on the chopping block.
His discarding of the apron strings of the BJP was a major blow to the party. It means a drastic change in the configuration of Bihar’s Lok Sabha seats in 2024. Since Nitish gave his erstwhile colleagues no time to regroup. By the time they gathered their wits, the damage had been done.
Nitish holds the trump card. How he plays it will need the concentration of intellect of all of Sangh Parivar’s whiz kids, of whom there is no dearth. Political observers will have a field day. As of this moment, Nitish denies he is a Prime Ministerial candidate. But one cannot predict the course politics will take. He could well emerge as the consensus candidate. It might be a little too late to take on an entrenched leader like Modi, but Nitish feels that the BJP can be confined to just 50 seats in the Lok Sabha if the entire Opposition unites under a chosen leader.
And there lies the rub! Kejriwal’s body language is plain. He has his sights fixed, if not on 2024, then on 2029. He is hardly likely to concede ground to others. Certainly not to Rahul Gandhi.
Mamata is unpredictable. She can make inroads into Tripura, but even that would require Herculean effort. Chandrashekar Rao of Telangana does not seem to have made much headway even in the South.
The only practical alternative is Kejriwal. But the individualistic tendencies he has displayed will not help his cause. That leaves the Opposition with the dark horse. Will all these overeager leaders unite under him? We wait and we watch.
