The Moscow declaration
THE US and its Western allies were hoping that the Putin-Xi Jinping summit would turn out to be a damp squib. The recent Moscow summit has, however, produced a comprehensive plan by China and Russia to jointly meet the challenges they face from the US-led global order. The US and its allies have been repeatedly calling for sanctions against Russia, following its conflict with Ukraine. Some hope was also unrealistically expressed that China could follow through on its Ukraine plan by joining them in persuading Russia to pull out of Ukraine on Western terms. That hope now lies shattered.
The joint declaration ends any illusion that Western powers may have had about China backing them on how the Ukraine conflict should be ended.
The joint declaration states that the US and its allies would have to respect the legitimate security concerns of all countries, while adding that confrontation must be avoided. Russia and China have emphasised that ‘responsible dialogue’ is the best way to resolve problems and the international community should support constructive efforts. The declaration, in fact, calls on all parties to stop actions that promote tension to prevent the crisis from further aggravating, and even getting out of control. It concludes that China and Russia are opposed to unilateral sanctions not authorised by the UN Security Council.
The US has, rather unconvincingly, been denying allegations made by one of its best-known investigative journalists, Seymour Hersh, that Washington had a hand in, and indeed organised, the bomb attack that destroyed the undersea Beixi gas pipeline (known also as Nordstream) carrying gas from Russia to Germany. Russia and China have bluntly noted, ‘The banner of extremism and the use of terrorist and extremist organisations to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries and achieve geopolitical goals.’ They have also demanded ‘an objective, impartial and professional investigation should be conducted on the Beixi pipeline explosion.’ It is going to be difficult for the US, and even Germany, which is reputed for observing high standards of respect for international law, to claim that they do not know who was responsible for blowing up the pipeline.
Expectations in the international community that Russia may be persuaded by China to be more flexible on the withdrawal from Ukraine have been dashed. Russia and China announced that the ‘legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected’, and that confrontation between camps, ‘adding fuel to the flames’, must be avoided. China firmly backs Russia’s position on the Ukraine crisis, averring that ‘responsible dialogue is the best way to solve problems steadily’. Most importantly, Russia has been assured of Chinese backing in the UN Security Council to ensure that ‘parties to the conflict stop all actions that promote tension, and delay the end of war.’ Putin could not have asked for anything more from his Chinese guest. What remains to be seen is whether China will provide the military supplies that Moscow needs.
The countries that would be most concerned by these developments are the US and its NATO allies. The declaration ends any illusion that Western powers, who speak for the so-called international community, have about China backing them on how the Ukraine conflict should be ended. China and Russia have also signalled that they have no regard for sanctions being imposed by Western powers. President Zelenskyy and the US would also have to think afresh on Russia’s concerns about the safety and security of Russians living in south-eastern Ukraine, while facing the reality that Russia intends to stay in Crimea, where it has exercised sovereignty for three centuries now.
The declaration is a clear signal from Russia and China that they are prepared to stand together on issues involving each other’s security interests. While India finds mention on some issues of regional cooperation, there is nothing in the declaration to which it could take objection to. What now emerges is that Russia and China have much in common in dealing with the US and its allies. China prefers to keep out any mention of India. This should not surprise anyone with even a cursory understanding of China’s growing hubris, as it moves to attain global recognition of its economic clout and military potential. Moreover, there is considerable focus by China on Sino-Russian cooperation to build a security framework in the oil-rich Gulf region. China and Russia appear more than pleased that thanks to clumsy diplomacy by the Biden administration, they have been able to commence a rapprochement process between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Similar efforts are underway to forge normal ties between Syria and Saudi Arabia. These developments have resulted in a stronger Russian and Chinese presence in the region.
There have sometimes been concerns about the impact of the growing Sino-Russia cooperation on Russia’s relations with India. Russia has for long been India’s largest supplier of modern weapons systems and has been helpful in India’s production of nuclear submarines. India is also manufacturing Russian-designed BrahMos missiles, which it has provided to friendly countries, with prospects of more buyers. Moreover, purchases of petroleum products at very reasonable prices from Russia have been helpful in managing India’s balance of payments. Russia, in turn, evidently understands that India’s defence cooperation with the US, together with its security links in groupings like Quad and I2U2 across the Indo-Pacific, are set to grow. While Russia is furious with Pakistan for supplying weapons to Ukraine, China would make every effort to get Moscow to assist Pakistan. Strategic autonomy, meanwhile, has been, and should remain, the hallmark of India’s defence and foreign policies.
