Sushant saga to make or mar NDA prospects

In the midst of the greatest despair is being offered the greatest distraction. There are many plots to the forthcoming Bihar assembly polls, the principal one being three-term chief minister Nitish Kumar, fighting for a fourth term in the face of growing anti-incumbency. Were he to win, that would make him the longest serving elected chief minister in the Hindi belt. Meanwhile, he also faces moves within the NDA to circumscribe his powers, but that’s not really engaging people too much.

In one of the nation’s most politically engaged states, it’s the story of Sushant Singh Rajput, the actor found dead in his Mumbai residence on June 14 that has entered the political realm. It’s not clear how exactly this helps or harms the either side, but the NDA partners believe it works for them. It’s the narrative of a Bihar youth going under in ‘Big Bad Bollywood’, opines a strategist of the LJP, one of the NDA parties, that claims to have been the first to demand a CBI probe into the death.

In this season of the ridiculous, a BJP insider takes a long-term view and jokes: now it is Sushant, but once Bihar is over and we face the next big battle in Bengal, we will begin rehabilitating Rhea Chakraborty (the Bengali girlfriend of the late actor). It’s all pretty puerile, but what is worth noting is that the political class believes it is happening.

No party understands distraction the way the BJP does and promotes it with enthusiasm. So in Bihar, stickers and masks bearing photos of Sushant Singh Rajput can be seen in various places. The BJP’s cultural cell, the Kala Sanskriti Manch, has released 30,000 stickers and an equal number of face masks with the photo of the actor. The election notification is expected later this month, by which time more face masks will no doubt be distributed. In addition, a video on Sushant’s life and ‘struggle’ is soon to be released by the party’s hyper active IT cell. The slogan attached to all the material about Sushant is ‘Na bhoole hain, na bhulne denge’ (we have not forgotten, nor will we let anyone forget).

That pitch is understandable as there are many things that the ruling NDA would want voters to divert their attention: floods, misery, reverse migration, joblessness, rise in crime, missing health infrastructure in the face of spreading coronavirus and so on. Overwhelmed by crises, two of which (Covid and floods) could perhaps be described as ‘acts of God’, the regime of Nitish Kumar is not evoking any enthusiasm. The CM has unleashed a host of promises but would be relying on BJP resources plus structures, the arithmetic of coalition and the apparent weakness of the Opposition, to see him through.

But he is also facing ploys by the BJP to encircle him. The national party is making moves to push Nitish and his JD (U) into parting with more seats in the eventual distribution that will take place. Although the national leadership of the BJP has categorically stated that Nitish remains the CM face, sections of the Bihar BJP are not happy with that and believe this election they could have risked going on their own. The BJP also believes that the anti-incumbency is against Nitish and not the entire NDA.

In the BJP’s game of chess, the LJP, now led by Chirag Paswan, has come in handy. Chirag, incidentally, also tried his hand in Bollywood and actually acted in a 2011 film titled, Miley Naa Miley Hum (Maybe you get me, maybe not) with no less than the 2020 newsmaker Kangana Ranaut. He would survive that flop and return to play a bigger role as inheritor of his father Ram Vilas Paswan’s party. While Paswan senior is currently in poor health, Chirag has kept up a constant critique of Nitish Kumar, even threatening to put up candidates in seats allotted to the JD (U) while he has continually praised the BJP. He is therefore doing the job of attacking his own coalition’s CM face and would presumably be rewarded by the BJP for his efforts (given their track record, the Paswans are unlikely to leave a financially solvent front that is in power at the Centre).

The RJD-led Opposition front is likely to include Congress, CPI and even the CPI (ML) that have stated they are in talks for seat sharing. They cannot match the BJP-RSS in terms of resources, but would be relying on disenchantment that is certainly growing with every passing day in Bihar. The RJD’s incarcerated president Lalu Prasad Yadav will determine the ticket distribution and would have a firm grip on the caste realities that lie at the fundamentals of Bihar politics. One of the most talented ground campaigners in contemporary political history, even those on the other side of the fence in Bihar, admit that a free Lalu may have been able to harness the growing misery of the poor to be a game-changer in 2020.

It remains to be seen whether his 30-year-old son Tejashvi Yadav can channelise that mood, particularly as there will be curbs on ground campaigns. It must, however, be noted that he has been in the field (unlike the 69-year-old CM who has begun with a virtual campaign) and is energetically issuing statements and taking positions. On September 9 for instance, Tejashvi urged people to come out and light a candle, lamp or lantern for nine minutes as a protest against unemployment and privatisation of government establishments. The lantern, incidentally, is the RJD’s election symbol.

This election is taking place in the backdrop of other realities. The only party with unlimited resources and manpower to bring voters to the booth after a terrible year could be the BJP. Even Nitish’s JD(U) would depend on candidates to ferry and motivate voters as would the RJD, both parties with deeper roots in Bihar politics. Unless an extraordinary event unfolds, there is also likely to be voter apathy and therefore, it will be the capacity of parties and candidates to ensure the last mile connectivity that could determine outcomes.

It will certainly be interesting to see how many vote in 2020 in a state where elections of the past consisted of crowds rushing around the helicopters of politicians landing in a cloud of dust. With human contact circumscribed, we would be having the first virtual election campaign in India. As this will happen in one of the country’s poorest states, the question is will the two worlds be able to meet in any meaningful way?