Russia-Ukraine war yet to reach a turning point

THE Chinese opinion was prescient. The crippling dawn attack on October 8 on the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge linking the strategic 2014-captured Crimean peninsula to the Russian mainland had crossed a red line, thereby inviting severe countermeasures. This was what China’s Global Times opined. The unprecedented Russian retaliation on October 10 comprised waves of 83 land/sea/air-launched cruise missiles and 17 Iranian suicide drones, attacking 11 major infrastructure targets in eight regions, including Kiev, leaving parts of Ukraine without electricity and water. The Global Times saw the attacks as ‘symbolic’, with Vladimir Putin having just celebrated his 70th birthday.

While Ukrainians vociferously celebrated the Kerch damages without claiming responsibility and the Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage remains unattributed, news agency RIA reports Russian parliamentarian Oleg Morozov as saying: “If we remain silent and don’t give an adequate response, such attacks will multiply.” Ukrainian Maj Gen Dmytro Marchenko’s assertion that the Crimean Bridge would remain the No. 1 attack priority when advanced western weapons are received and Putin’s statement vowing to punish Ukraine for Kerch through systemic energy infrastructure degradation indicate spiralling escalation.

Called ‘Putin’s Bridge’, Moscow built Kerch Bridge to link the Crimean peninsula to the Russian region of Krasnodar Krai in Northern Caucasus. The 19-km-long bridge with parallel road/rail connectivity services the logistics needs of the Black Sea Fleet and controls access to the Azov Sea thence to the Black Sea through a lifting bridge portion allowing access only to a certain size of ships suiting Russian perceptions. Russia’s ultimate strategic aim is also to link Crimea to the Donetsk/Luhansk regions, already under Russian occupation.

Ruthless, focused and pragmatic by reputation, Gen Sergei Surovikin of the elite Guards Spetsnaz (Special Forces) was appointed Commander of all Russian forces for the special operations on the very day Kerch happened. The retaliatory infrastructure strikes were planned with Russian technical experts’ help. Iskander/Kalibr/Kh-101/Kh-55/S-300/Tornado cruise missiles and suicide drone strikes were employed in several tranches. “In the five waves executed so far (thrice in October and twice in November), nearly 50 per cent of critical energy infrastructure has been destroyed,” said Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal, leaving millions without power and water.

Thermal power plants, sub-stations, high-voltage transmission/distribution lines/transformers, wind/solar plants, railways, fuel depots/production facilities, military command/control/communication centres/operational logistics/equipment stores and bridges were hit to inhibit stores/fuel/information from reaching the frontline troops. The fourth wave of strikes from November 15-23 stands out being the largest, using 96 missiles on a single day, most of which the Ukrainians claim to have downed. Ukraine has had no choice but to impose rolling blackouts, affecting up to 10 million people. The seriousness of degradation Ukraine has undergone becomes clearer against its population template of 43.1 million. Around 7.8 million refugees have fled for safety across Europe, while 8 million are displaced within Ukraine. With 50 per cent infrastructure destroyed, the country faces unprecedented ‘nuclear winter’ conditions, including the loss of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant (ZNPP). It met 20 per cent of Ukraine’s power needs.

Ukraine has set up 4,000 ‘invincibility centres’. These provide free generator-delivered electricity, water, Internet, mobile phone connections and a 24×7 pharmacy. Ukraine has 14 billion cubic metres of gas in reserve storage, but faces a long haul. With Donbas coal no longer available, it has funding problems as fuel/gas/electricity costs abroad have escalated. Ukraine is synchronised to the European electricity grid, but supply from Romania/Slovakia/Hungary/Moldova is costly. Long-term plans include more dependence on solar/battery power. The harsh reality is euphoric promises of assistance, but tardy, limited supply.

Ukraine operates four nuclear power plants (NPPs) with an installed nuclear power capacity of over 13 GWe. The 6-GW ZNPP, when operating, produced 40 per cent of electricity generated by the Ukrainian NPPs. The huge plant’s capacity is better understood on realising that India generates 7.3 GWe from eight NPPs. Located 200 km north of Crimea, the ZNPP is currently ‘cooling down’.

Although ZNPP was disconnected from the Russian to the Continental Europe grid, Russia is implementing its plan to connect it instead to the Crimean grid. Michael Black, Director, Centre of Nuclear Engineering at Imperial College, London, feels this could interrupt the off-site power to the reactors. “You need that power to provide cooling to the reactors even with the NPP switched off. As long as those generators function, everything is fine. It’s encouraging to see that the Russians want to use the electricity; that implies that they don’t want to damage ZNPP,” he said.

While reinforced concrete containment structures protect the ZNPP reactors from direct hits, radiation release post missile attack will be disastrous. Fears of a Chernobyl redux remain as the 1986 disaster in northern Ukraine is the world’s worst nuclear disaster. The ZNPP, however, has advanced safety features, including reactor/spent fuel cooling, negating a Chernobyl recurrence. The chances of explosion, nuclear meltdown or radioactive release are remote.

Along with focused energy infrastructure degradation operations, Gen Surovikin is consolidating his ground forces; mixing the 30,000 withdrawn veterans from Kherson with the recent draft of 3,00,000 inductees. The Ukrainians are so busy tending to infrastructure restoration and linked defensive issues that their offensive push has noticeably declined. Ukrainian estimates suggest that 700 attacks have been carried out on hundreds of Ukrainian cities, causing severe degradation of life and health services in this hostile weather.

What’s thus been engineered is a strategic pause favouring Russia more than Ukraine. The war has still not reached a turning point. Western allies, who clinically used Ukraine as a “fall guy” to belittle Russia, realise that Ukraine cannot be allowed to lose nor Russia allowed to win. The situation thus suggests negotiations as the only way out, with recent diplomatic developments suggesting Indian involvement. India has been guarded in its response and will await developments till its national interests dictate an opening.