Rocky ride for Imran

Imran Khan had a very different entry and rise in Pakistani politics from virtually all his predecessors, ranging from Mohammed Jinnah to Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. The planning behind the entry and rise of Imran Khan in politics was, however, not through any political party. It was facilitated by a former ISI chief, Lt Gen Hamid Gul.

There are too many imponderables. Army takeovers and regime change are not unheard of in Pakistan.

I got to know Hamid Gul personally in Islamabad. Conversations with him during the height of the Kargil conflict were revealing about how long-time military dictator Gen Zia-ul-Haq ruthlessly ruled the country as its President and army chief. Zia led the country into adopting radical Islamic practices and policies nationally. As DG (ISI), Gul played an active role in fomenting conflict by radical Islamic groups, in both Afghanistan and J&K. 

Despite his efforts to portray himself as a liberal, Cambridge-educated cricketer, Imran Khan was in close touch with Gul, who became one of the founding members of his Tehreek-e-Insaf Party, now ruling Pakistan. Not surprisingly, Imran Khan’s growingly Islamist party was built on the support of the Pakistan military. Guided by Gul, Imran became a radical Islamist, articulating rabidly anti-Indian policies, while portraying a ‘liberal’ image to his western friends. He also has the dubious distinction of ruining Pakistan’s relations with erstwhile good friends, like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, by thoughtless actions, like his growing ties with Turkey and Malaysia. This, even as India’s relations with Arab Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE  grew stronger.

Pakistan has a record of living beyond its means and accumulating debts. Imran Khan has little choice now but to tighten his belt and accept growing conditionalities imposed by creditors for doles from the strictest international lender, the International Monetary Fund. According to recent studies, and reports of the Pakistan government, Pakistan has virtually doubled its external debt to over $85 billion in the past three years, while setting new records of external borrowing. Sri Lanka has, however, shown the foresight of not repeating its folly of borrowing more than it could repay from China for the Hambantota Port. Pakistan, however, seems to be digging an even deeper hole of unpayable debts, including to its friend, China. Pakistan continues to borrow recklessly from China for its much-touted CPEC. At the same time, China has taken virtually full control of the Gwadar transportation corridor, even as Chinese fishing boats use Gwadar extensively to denude the fishery resources of the Arabian Sea. US President Biden  has not spoken to Imran Khan after he took over. Moreover, Washington is not going to forget the humiliation that Pakistan led the US through, in Afghanistan.

Successive Pakistan prime ministers have recognised that while they could mould the directions of the country’s foreign and security policies, it would be dangerous for any ruler to take on the country’s military leadership, especially on issues of national security, and on relations with neighbours, India and Afghanistan. Imran Khan, however, seems to have set himself a route, which is increasingly at odds with Pakistan’s army chief, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa. Imran Khan forgot the reality that while he could seek ways to get around some of the policies that the army chief does not support, it would be dangerous to undermine the army chief’s role.  

Imran Khan’s problems with the army arose from the personal rapport he developed with his flamboyant and ambitious ISI chief, Lt Gen Faiz Hameed. The ISI boss made a serious mistake in seeking to become the centre of global media attention, when the last Americans were flying/fleeing out of Afghanistan. The ISI chief, thereafter, supervised, amidst worldwide publicity, the removal of senior Taliban leaders like Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, who were forced to flee from Kabul to Kandahar. They nevertheless soon returned to ostensibly less important, but influential positions. This  move was executed with the help of the powerful ISI-backed Haqqani network of the Taliban, which operates from both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Infuriated, Bajwa responded swiftly, transferring the ISI chief to  the post of Corps Commander of troops of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, which deals with challenges the Pakistan military is facing from  the Afghan Taliban, together with the separatist and nationalistic Pashtun Tehrik-i-Taliban, Pakistan, operating on both sides of the Durand Line.

Neither the Taliban nor the Tehrik-i-Taliban show due respect for the Durand Line as the international border separating Afghanistan and Pakistan. Afghanistan’s deputy foreign minister Abbas Stanikzai noted on January 6: ‘The Durand Line is an issue of the whole nation, not just the government. It doesn’t belong to the government. We will give the responsibility to the nation, so that the nation will make the decision.’ The political clock is now ticking within Pakistan on Pashtun territorial claims across the Line. Moreover, amidst  differences with General Bajwa, Imran Khan is also facing a restive Baloch population, angered by  violations of their  maritime frontiers by Chinese fishermen, and the erosion of their rights in Gwadar.

The coming 18 months will see important changes within Pakistan. Bajwa is scheduled to retire in September. The opposition is, meanwhile, flexing its muscle to secure enough defections to bring down Imran Khan’s government. That can succeed only if the army gives the green signal to all concerned. Moreover, Bajwa will have to recommend the name of his successor. Imran Khan would prefer to appoint his protégé Faiz Hameed as the next army chief, with whose support he can ensure that he gets re-elected, before October 12, 2023. This could cause ripples within the army, as Faiz Hameed is the junior-most three-star General, among the Corps Commanders. Would the army respect such a decision by a discredited Prime Minister in such circumstances, or would it act pre-emptively to enforce its priorities? There are too many imponderables right now. Army takeovers and regime change are not unheard of in Pakistan!