Reverse migration is here to stay

INDIA’S people are going back to their villages in large numbers. In the past five years, the policy-backed trend to push workers from ‘low-productive’ agriculture to seek better employment opportunities in urban centres stands reversed.

An indication of an upswing in reverse migration first came during the Covid-19 pandemic when millions of urban poor traversed long distances, mostly on foot, in what was seen as the largest movement of people since the days of the Partition. The unprecedented inter-state and intra-state migration was believed to be temporary, but defying the expectation that the workforce would return to cities once the pandemic was over, a majority of the migrants preferred to stay back.

Economists must

stop treating any proposed increase in the budgetary outlay for agriculture as an addition to the fiscal deficit.

Based on the data generated from National Sample Surveys and Periodic Labour Force Surveys, the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and the New Delhi-based Institute of Human Development had in a report first quantified an increase in agricultural employment. Contrary to the popular perception, an estimated 56 million workers were added to the rural workforce between 2020 and 2022. It only showed that at a time of jobless growth, the employment opportunities available in cities were no long attractive for migrants. Whether it was because of a slump in manufacturing and a decline in construction sector jobs, the migrants thought it better to move back to villages.

Subsequently, the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2023-24 showed a reversal of the population shift as per the economic design – moving a sizeable proportion of the agricultural workforce away from farming. Interestingly, while 66 million of the agricultural workforce migrated in search of menial jobs in the cities in a period of 13 years, between 2004-05 and 2018-19; economist Himanshu of Jawaharlal Nehru University estimated that in the next five years, between 2018-19 and 2023-24, more than 68 million people have returned to the villages. Not that agriculture suddenly has turned remunerative but the rate at which reverse migration has upturned the expected gains from the structural transformation underway, clearly showed that pushing people out of farms was not a viable strategy.

Although the PLFS survey report shows that the share of agriculture in the rural workforce has risen from 42.5 per cent in 2018-19 to 46.1 per cent in 2023-24, the absolute numbers added back to agriculture — and that includes a sizeable population of the youth — send a message that can no longer be ignored. While the popular economic thinking was based on a faulty design that had kept agriculture deliberately impoverished over the years in a quest to push people out of the sector, the spate of farmers’ protests following the iconic year-long agitation at Delhi’s borders has shown their anger over the continuous denial of a rightful income.

It was in 1996 that the World Bank had sought that India should move 400 million people out of agriculture — equal to twice the combined population of the UK, France and Germany — forcing them to migrate to cities. Instead of creating economic conditions that facilitate migration to urban centres, the emphasis should have been on rebuilding agriculture by making farming a viable enterprise. This is what Mahatma Gandhi had wanted, and the rate at which migrants have returned only shows how right he was. It is, therefore, time to dispense with the World Bank thinking and shift the focus to revitalising agriculture and turning farming into a sustainable, viable and a profitable enterprise.

If you are still not convinced, look at the report of the All India Rural Financial Inclusion Survey 2021-22 of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) that was released recently. Accordingly, the share of the population engaged in agriculture has significantly grown over the years. From 48 per cent in 2016-17 to a high of 57 per cent in 2023-24, the quantum jump in the number of agricultural households clearly points to the return of the native. Barring Punjab, where the share of agricultural households has come down from 42 per cent in 2016-17 to 36 per cent in 2021-22; in Himachal Pradesh from 70 to 63 per cent; and by a trickle in Gujarat and Karnataka, the increase in farm households has been substantial in many states. Agricultural households have risen from 3 to 18 per cent in Goa, from 34 to 58 per cent in Haryana; from 41 to 57 per cent in Uttarakhand; and from 13 to 57 per cent in Tamil Nadu; most of the other states also show an increasing trend towards agriculture.

Whatever be the reasons, the three surveys and studies by the ILO, PLFS and NABARD demonstrate the importance of agriculture to meet employment and livelihood challenges, not to forget the sector’s ability to ensure household food security.

While the dominant economic thinking is dismayed at the rate at which reverse migration has upset all previous estimates to reduce the numbers in agriculture, the rise in employment in agriculture is being viewed as ‘worrying’ and as a ‘matter of concern’ by mainline economists and economic writers. This pattern of reverse migration being seen in India is unique for a low middle-income group, but it is a pointer to the growing need to resurrect economic policies so as to rebuild agriculture. It is time to acknowledge the changing ground reality.

The dependence on agriculture will create its own viable pathways, provided the government is willing to put in adequate resources. First and foremost, economists must stop treating any proposed increase in the budgetary outlay for agriculture as an addition to the fiscal deficit. As per the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), India is the only country among 54 major economies engaged in agriculture where the losses farmers incur are not covered by budgetary provisions. As I have often said, farmers have been harvesting losses, year after year, for almost 25 years. This flawed economic design that leaves farmers ‘bhagwan bharose’ must end.

Reverse migration has to be viewed as good news. It is now time to put in resources where they are needed the most. That will eventually lead to Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas.