Regime change can impact Bangladesh’s defence ties with India

IN a conversation with me after Pakistan’s surrender at Bogra in the 1971 Liberation War, Maj Gen Nazir Hussain Shah, General Officer Commanding of the 16 Pakistan Infantry Division, had said prophetically: “Bangladesh will be a disturbed desh.”

Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, head of the 16-member non-political interim advisory council that has two student leaders, has described Sheikh Hasina’s exit as ‘the second Liberation’. It has also been referred to as the ‘third revolution’, a redux of the 2006 Nepalese revolution and ‘Arab Spring on steroids’, and likened to the 2022 Aragalaya (uprising) in Sri Lanka.

There are conspiracy theories attached to last month’s Anti-Discrimination Students Movement. A warning by Bangladeshi filmmaker and philanthropist Chanchal Chowdhury about an impending US-led coup has gone viral on social media. The immediate fallout from Hasina’s eviction will be for India, which has historically put all its eggs in the Awami League basket. Faced with a crisis of legitimacy and the backsliding of democracy, Hasina’s port of call was New Delhi, which welcomed her with a bit of nervousness. The mayhem that marked the violence and revenge killings was similar to those witnessed during the regime change in Afghanistan in 2021. The army under Gen Waker-Uz-Zaman, praised by the US, carried out a coup, the fifth in 53 years.

During a lecture tour to the Centre for the Study of Genocide and Justice at the Liberation War Museum in Dhaka last November ahead of the January 2024 parliamentary elections, I failed to read the graffiti (read writing) on the wall: ‘Hasina go’. And so did India. My driver told me that if a free and fair election were held, the Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Begum Khaleda Zia, would sweep the polls. This was echoed by an officer of the Indian High Commission in Dhaka and several journalists. Still, India backed Hasina to the hilt. The civil-military relations seemed harmonised, with both sides marking their red lines. During several visits to Bangladesh since 1971, one saw the Awami League focus on two areas: the glorification of the legacy of the Liberation War and strengthening India-Bangladesh relations despite the lurking anti-India sentiment.

The battle between the two Begums (and the proxy war between their sons Sajeeb Wazed and Tarique Rahman) was clearly manifest in their love-hate approach towards India. During the BNP’s rule, the India connect with the Liberation War diminished. And when the Awami League regained power, especially in the last 15 years, emphasis was laid on reviving the cult of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and the war. Therefore, the image of a student defacing Mujib’s statue in Dhaka and the public hangings of Awami League workers illustrate the vicious cycle. India’s Eastern Command, which oversaw the 1971 war, commemorates the Liberation War with Mukti Jodhas from Bangladesh every year in December. And Dhaka reciprocates with warmth through a lavish felicitation of Indian veterans of the conflict. That ritual was sanctified by the construction of a war memorial for India’s 1,670-odd martyrs (similar to the one for the Indian Peace-Keeping Force in Colombo) at Ashuganj. It was to be inaugurated later this year by PM Narendra Modi and Hasina. Scholarships, medical schemes and myriad welfare facilities have been introduced for the dependants of Mukti Bahini personnel, and free medical treatment has been made available for members of the Bangladeshi armed forces.

The rise in military-to-military relations is a stellar achievement, given that the Bangladeshi military used to wargame scenarios with India as an enemy until recently. Almost everyone, other than the military and the beneficiary families, seems to have forgotten about the Liberation War. Enhanced defence cooperation between the two nations is marked by the $500-million line of credit extended by India.

There are tri-service interactions with institutionalised staff and training-level dialogue. Visits by military leaders are common. Gen Zaman was to visit India later this month. Last year, personnel of the Bangladesh Air Force had visited Dimapur, where it was christened in 1971. Bangladesh was also supposed to take part in the Tarang Shakti multi-national air exercise with the Indian Air Force this month. Joint exercises and sea patrols are rising. Service chiefs presiding over passing-out parades in each other’s military academies is a regular feature. Non-kinetic military equipment has been sold, as the armed forces division responsible for modernising Bangladesh’s military has categorised defence acquisitions under A, B and C groups. While India still falls in the C category, China — the mainstay of military hardware — comes under A. How much of the enhanced defence ties will survive the regime change is crucial for India.

Anti-India sentiment, a familiar refrain in the neighbourhood, has become a metaphor for New Delhi’s unflinching support to Hasina. Some Indian leaders have repeatedly called for the implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act/National Register of Citizens and described Bangladeshis as ‘insects’ and ‘infiltrators’. The China Media Group, along with Pakistan’s ISI, is encouraging the banned Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, to fuel anti-India sentiments.

Bangladesh shares its border with five Indian states. The turmoil along the India-Myanmar border, coupled with simmering unrest in Manipur, can wreck India’s Act East and Neighbourhood First policies if an unfriendly regime returns to Dhaka. The threat from China to the Siliguri corridor will also reappear. The BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) will also be destabilised as a regional grouping. Consequently, the role of the Army will be the key to maintaining India’s strategic interests and ensuring stable and friendly relations with Bangladesh, given the love and labour that have gone into building them. India must send the right feelers to the keepers of the keys in Dhaka. A great deal is at stake for New Delhi, which took its eyes off the neighbourhood.