Recalibrating strategy
While India is celebrating its G20 rotational presidency in a high-voltage fashion and as a national endeavour, the rotational presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which it also currently holds, is being treated in a low-key manner. One obvious reason for this vast difference in approaches lies in the significance of the two groupings: the G20 is currently the world’s premier multilateral grouping, while the SCO’s international footprint is limited. Besides, there is no doubt that China is the main SCO country and Pakistan is also its member. India’s ties with both countries are passing through a very difficult phase. This, too, has led to the lack of enthusiasm about the SCO presidency.
What India will have to expect is that the Russians and the Chinese will have a go at the West and, in particular, the US.
A sign of this absence of zeal was witnessed in the somewhat routine manner in which India approached the SCO tourism ministers’ meeting in Varanasi on March 17-18. At the last SCO Summit in Uzbekistan, in 2022, the Samarkand Declaration noted, ‘In order to further promote the rich cultural and historical heritage of the peoples and the tourism potential of SCO member states, it was decided to declare the city of Varanasi (Republic of India) as the SCO Tourism and Cultural Capital for 2022-2023.’
It could have been expected that the Modi government and the Uttar Pradesh authorities, too, would go all out to project Kashi but no substantive attempt was made to greatly project Varanasi as the SCO cultural capital. Minister of Tourism G Kishan Reddy presided over the meeting which was attended by China and three Central Republics representatives in physical form but at vice-ministers’ level. The other SCO countries, including Pakistan, participated virtually, also at lower levels.
The SCO Summit will take place in India in July. In response to a question, the government said in the Lok Sabha on March 24 that ‘India will also host the Heads of State Summit in July 2023 and will fulfil the role of an active and constructive member of the organisation.’ Prior to the summit, three important meetings are to take place. These are of the national security advisers on March 29 (Wednesday), the defence ministers in April and the foreign ministers in Goa on May 4-5. On March 24, the government also intimated to the Lok Sabha that ‘Most foreign ministers of member states of SCO have confirmed their participation. Confirmation from foreign ministers of China and Pakistan is awaited.’
Prior to the summit, attention will be focused on how India navigates these meetings, which are likely to be held in hybrid format. That will enable Pakistan to participate without its defence and foreign ministers visiting India. Its approach on participation has been ambivalent till now. While it participated in the SCO chief justices’ meeting through a Supreme Court judge, the Pakistan foreign ministry official spokesperson confirmed that a ‘delegation from Joint Staff Headquarters’ physically attended an expert working group meeting which works under the SCO defence ministers. Pakistan also objected to India disallowing its delegation from taking part in an SCO meeting of ‘Armed Forces Contribution in Military Medical, Healthcare and Pandemics’ because of its insistence on using a map showing Kashmir as a part of Pakistan. Naturally, India will object to such a map. In 2020, NSA Ajit Doval had walked out of a virtual meeting when the Pakistani NSA projected the objectionable map as a background. That was the right course to adopt, especially as the host, Russia, had cautioned against raising a controversial bilateral matter.
The question is, what would India do if Pakistani ministers in the SCO meetings, either participating virtually or physically, raise controversial issues or behave inappropriately? As China and Russia have stakes in the smooth conduct of the organisation, it would be best if they and the SCO secretariat are asked to advise Pakistan to conduct itself in keeping with the basic principles of the organisation so that India is not compelled to take action that its people would expect their government to take. Pakistan foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto has, in the past, used unacceptable language against PM Modi; hence, his friends — the Chinese — should specially warn him against any theatrics if he decides to take part in the SCO meeting.
What India will have to expect is that the Russians and the Chinese will have a go at the West and, in particular, the US, in their statements. At the summit, Iran will join the SCO; so its President, who will surely attend, will also make strident statements against the West. This will give the Chinese satisfaction because they have brokered the re-establishment of diplomatic contacts between Iran and Saudi Arabia. There is little that India will be able to do to control what the Russians will say. It is likely that foreign minister Lavrov will take part in the Goa meeting, but will President Putin attend the summit? He was present in Samarkand and would not perhaps miss the Delhi summit.
The SCO meetings and summit will be taking place in the midst of the continuing war in Ukraine. In Samarkand, Modi had told Putin that today was not an era of war. Clearly, that did not make an impact on the Russian President. Western leaders will want Modi to press on Putin to put an end to the aggression. Modi will therefore have to navigate a difficult situation, especially as the G20 Summit will be held in Delhi in September.
The Samarkand Declaration did not refer to the Ukraine war or any specific international or regional issue, except the situation in Afghanistan. It will not be difficult to reach a Delhi Declaration on the lines of the Samarkand example, even if India has inhibitions on new proposals moved by China and Pakistan. The problem is that it will not be easy to work out a G20 Summit declaration by consensus. India would like that clean consensus documents emerge from both summits. That will be the real test of the Indian Foreign Minister.
