Rajapaksas poised for a win in Lanka polls

Sri Lanka is all set for its most expensive parliamentary elections, to be held on August 5. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has been running the country since his election in November last year with his Defence Secretary and Chief of Defence Staff, both war heroes, but all three charged with alleged war crimes. On March 2, under sweeping presidential powers, Gotabaya dissolved parliament whose term was till next month.

The Supreme Court dismissed seven petitions seeking its restoration as the country was being governed without parliament and with a caretaker government. Elections were postponed twice due to the Covid-19 pandemic. As many as 7,452 candidates contested the 196 directly elected seats from 25 districts with 29 lawmakers to be nominated by parties from a national list based on the share of national vote.

Gotabaya’s elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is leading Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP), which split from the Sri Lankan People’s Front (SLPF) in 2015, has been president twice and together with Gotabaya as the Defence Secretary, won the war against Tamil Tigers in 2009. He is likely to be confirmed Prime Minister from being the caretaker. The Rajapaksas are poised to emulate the Kaczynski twins, who served as Poland’s President and Prime Minister in the mid-2000s.

Gotabaya won the election with a rare 52.5 per cent, almost the entire Sinhalese vote, on the national security plank following the Easter Sunday terrorist attack last year in Colombo. He has governed Sri Lanka in a constitutional vacuum under allegations of militarising his country.

A former army colonel from the Gajaba regiment, he has invested heavily in the military administering the country. All intelligence agencies were concentrated under Maj Gen Jagath Alvis, who reports to the Defence Secretary, Maj Gen Kamal Gunaratne (retd), whose 53 Division ambushed and killed Tiger supremo Prabhakaran near Nandikadal lagoon on May 19, 2009.

The first task force Gotabaya formed was under Lt Gen Shavindra Silva, CDS and army commander and another Gajaba — the National Operational Centre for the prevention of Covid-19 outbreak; a task force headed by former Marshal of Air Force, Air Chief Marshal Roshan Gunatilake for health and security in military camps; two task forces under Gunaratne to build a secure country — disciplined, virtuous and lawful society and; for the protection of heritage monuments in the eastern province where 75 per cent of Muslims and Tamils live, but without any representation on the task force. A former army commander, Lt Gen Daya Ratnayake, heads the Sri Lanka Port Authority and former Naval Chief Admiral Jayanth Colombage is foreign policy adviser to the President.

The first case of Covid-19 occurred on March 10 and the tally on August 2 was 2,816 cases; deaths 11, recovered 2,514. The pandemic has been efficiently managed through a good public health system, sound immunity levels of population and successful contact tracing by the military complemented with food distribution and Rs 5,000 as subsistence allowance which was objected to by the National Election Commission. After April 30, not a single case of Covid-19 was reported for 40 days and by June 3, General Silva declared the Covid threat over, except for a second spike. Of the 1,600 cases, 800 had recovered by then.

The Rajapaksas, in alliance with the SLFP, are seeking a two-thirds majority which is unlikely in a mixed electoral system. Given the split in the opposition United National Party (UNP) — like the split in SLFP in 2015 — the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by presidential contestant Sajith Premadasa, son of former President R Premadasa, which is backed by the UNP’s former allies like the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) and the groundswell of support for the Rajapaksas, the SLPP is assured of a simple majority.

The Rajapaksas wish to abrogate the 19th Amendment of 2015 so that a strong, centralised structure can rule the country. Besides, the SLPP will likely repeal the two-term limit on presidency, opening the door for Mahinda to contest in the 2024 presidential elections, provided Gotabaya is willing to oblige. Article 19A is a necessary safeguard for the independent Constitutional Council which ensures that public institutions like the Election Commission, Human Rights Commission, Public Services Commission and the judiciary are insulated from political interference.

India has a big stake in Sri Lanka, given its geostrategic location dominating the sea-lanes of communication across the Indian Ocean to the Malacca Straits, with the first two of its three ports in Colombo, Hambantota and Trincomalee, partially or wholly Chinese-owned, even as New Delhi and Beijing are in eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation across the LAC in Ladakh.

Not for nothing did Foreign Minister S Jaishankar dash to Colombo within hours of Gotabaya’s election to invite him to New Delhi. India has made generous offers — a $450-million line of credit and agreed to two currency swaps. India is heavily invested in the development of the North and East and also of the Hill Country Tamil area. It was the first to deliver 10 tonnes of medical succour on a special flight after Covid-19. Fifty per cent of India’s foreign military training is for Sri Lanka.

China is way ahead of India in its penetration of Sri Lanka since its military backing to Colombo during the war when India was unable and unwilling to do so. With deep pockets, China has a 35 per cent FDI, overtaking India’s 16 per cent investment. Both President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Gotabaya about Covid-19 in May.

The Rajapaksas call India a relative and nearest neighbour while others are friends. They also hint that while they rely on India for security, it is China for economic development. That equation could, of course, change.

Besides the China worry, India has serious unfinished business in Sri Lanka — the Tamil national question. The Indo-Sri Lanka Accord of 1987 provided for the 13th Amendment which led to devolution for the Tamil-majority North and East and a provincial council system. The divided TNA, which has sought the implementation of 13A and merger of North and East, wants a minimum of 20 seats in parliament (in 2015, it secured 16 seats).

The Rajapaksas are determined to underplay devolution and focus on development. India is unlikely to press Colombo beyond a point — its abrogation — for meeting Tamil political aspirations, but may persuade Rajapaksas to act on ‘Truth, Justice and Reconciliation’, pledges made to Tamils in the past.

With Rajapaksas at the helm, Colombo will steer a mid-course in the short term. India’s proximity and persuasion will balance China’s wealth and coercion.