Options before Ukraine
Russia’s ties with its former republics have generally been good, even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1996. It was only natural for Russia’s smaller neighbours to seek to widen their regional and international options, which is happening now. Moreover, there are millions of Russians living as local citizens in virtually all former Soviet Republics. Russia also has a long coastline across the freezing waters of the Arctic Ocean. It has, therefore, historically used ports, in what is now Ukraine, for the bulk of its trade and military operations across the sea. It also has serious concerns about ensuring uninterrupted access to the seas, through Crimea, in Ukraine. Under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine has, however, in recent years, sought to widen its options through a growing strategic partnership with the US.
India has positioned itself as a constructive participant in the emerging situation in Ukraine.
Russia took control of the port facilities in Crimea in southern Ukraine in 2014. Russian population constituting 17% of Ukraine’s population lives largely near and across the shores of the Black Sea. Matters came to a head when the young and charismatic Zelenskyy hastily sought close military relations with President Biden’s administration in 2021. This transpired even as ethnic tensions between Russians and Ukrainians in southern Ukraine were escalating. Rather than seeking to promote stability in Ukraine, the Biden administration chose to play to the ego of the Ukrainian President.
In 2021 emerged a joint declaration by Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart, laced with strong anti-Russian rhetoric, which included: ‘Unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders, including Crimea, and extending to its territorial waters, in the face of Russian aggression’. This was an assurance of support to Ukraine for actions which would undermine Russia’s access to the sea in Crimea. This was accompanied by rapid transfer of sophisticated US military hardware to Ukraine.
President Putin ordered his troops into southern Ukraine in February, with the stated objective of seizing the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk by declaring them independent states. He thereby established Russia’s control over areas where the Russians are well positioned. There are an estimated 7.7 million Russians in Ukraine, which has a total population of 43.3 million. The Russian population resides predominantly in six southern districts of Ukraine which control Russia’s access to the sea in Crimea. The Russian Black Sea Fleet was established in the Crimean Peninsula in 1783. It has historically been the gateway of Russia to the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean Sea. The ill-planned and poorly executed Russian military response that followed the Biden-Zelenskyy declaration, combined with massive US and NATO arms assistance, threatened the only historical Russian access to the seas.
The Russians are now confined to operating almost exclusively in Ukraine’s six districts of Mariupol, Luhansk, Donetsk, Melitopol, Kherson and Crimea. While Russia had taken control of these largely Russian-dominated areas, its forces are now under tremendous risk of being overrun by far better equipped Ukrainian forces. Given the strategic dimensions and the location of these areas, there is every possibility of Russia resorting to the use of tactical nuclear weapons, if unavoidable. Just over a year ago, Biden and Putin proclaimed in a joint statement that: ‘A nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought’. The durability of that statement is now under test, with Putin not ruling out the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Biden, in turn, is warning of dire consequences if Russia does so.
Putin placed Russia’s nuclear forces in ‘special combat readiness’ on February 22, and held high-profile nuclear drills. More recently, he said: ‘If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will, without a doubt, use all available means to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.’ Biden predictably rebuffed Putin’s threat. This is the first time that the world is facing such a dangerous threat of an impending use of nuclear weapons, especially as the Ukrainians are now eyeball to eyeball with Russians. While many Russians may not agree with Putin’s policies, they will rally behind him in such a situation.
While the atomic bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki had a capacity of 15-25 kilo tonnes of high explosives, tactical nuclear weapons have capacities ranging from 0.1 to 1 kilo tonne. According to US intelligence, Russia has about 2,000 tactical weapons. One hopes Zelenskyy does not provoke the Russians to act drastically.
Russia has lost support and sympathy across Europe. But, it is a country with scientific skills and immense natural resources. It is also one of the world’s leading producers of oil and natural gas. With shortages in supplies worldwide, there is little the western world can do to halt the looming rise in oil prices now brought about by Arab oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This, despite appeals by Biden to lower oil prices. Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia, however, appears determined to challenge Biden’s diktats. The impact of Russia’s actions will be felt by people in Europe during winter months without the availability of Russian gas supplies.
India has positioned itself as a constructive participant in the emerging situation in Ukraine. This is evident as all sides have hailed PM Modi’s talks with Putin at the recent SCO Summit, where Modi drew attention to the reality that: ‘Today’s era is not an era of war.’ This statement has been welcomed by the governments and media in the US, Russia and across Europe. One hopes that Biden, Putin and Zelenskyy heed the advice and move towards a negotiated settlement to avoid a looming, dangerous conflict.
