Opposition disunity and the civil code
WITH just nine months left for the Lok Sabha polls, there is Opposition disunity before any sign of unity. Double standards and doublespeak are the hallmarks of politics and so it was with the practitioners of realpolitik at Patna. While CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury warmly shared the dais with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and former chief Rahul Gandhi at the grand Opposition meet on June 23, the CPM’s lone state government arrested the Kerala Congress unit president the same day and let him off only on the strength of a court order. It was as if the scandal-ridden Kerala CPM was signalling to the BJP top brass its intent to derail Opposition unity. Meanwhile, the AAP and the Congress fought over the Delhi ordinance. And now, the Punjab unit of the Congress has called the AAP the RSS’s B-team.
The mistake lies in the Opposition allowing the BJP to use the UCC as a diversionary tactic.
PM Narendra Modi’s pro-incumbency mass appeal has weakened considerably over the past nine years. Even if the Karnataka poll results are compared to the 2018 defeats suffered by the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh over local factors, it is a fact that fatigue has set in against state and Central governments in many parts of the country. It will not be easy for Modi to retain his pro-incumbency vote even after a decade of price rise and unemployment. Hindutva despite the best efforts of the West to paint Indians as communal is no antidote to the rising anger against the poor quality of life. This is the fertile soil in which the Opposition parties ought to be running their plough of unity to wrest power from the BJP.
But the present Indian Opposition has a structural problem that prevents various parties from coming together. It was easier to take on the Congress in its heyday of single-party rule, say during the 1989 General Election. The Congress was present from Kashmir to Kanyakumari as the undisputed ruling party. And each of the anti-Congress conglomerates was limited to scattered pockets across the country, making it easier for them to come together. Then, for instance, the Congress’ sole Opposition in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, which together account for 64 Lok Sabha seats, was the Left; its Opposition in undivided Andhra Pradesh, which had 42 seats, was just the Telugu Desam; in Maharashtra, with 48 seats, it was the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance and in the Hindi heartland, the Lohiaite Janata Parivar always squabbled but made up with the Sangh Parivar to form a joint Opposition against the Congress.
That is, however, not the case with the anti-BJP Opposition parties, which fight against each other for every inch of political space across the country. Take West Bengal as a test case: The Trinamool Congress had to finish off the Congress to establish itself as the primary Opposition party before decimating the CPM to grab power. Even now, the Left and the Congress do not see eye to eye with Mamata Banerjee. So, there is no real political reason for Mamata to anoint Rahul Gandhi as the next Prime Minister. The same is the case with the Left in Kerala. The BJP-led Central government has been treating Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan most magnanimously despite a string of allegations against him. The Supreme Court adjourned the CBI case against Vijayan for the 33rd time in April last. Imagine the CBI letting off any other Opposition leader in a similar fashion. The logic is simple the common enemy for the BJP and the CPM in Kerala is the Congress.
In Maharashtra, the ruling alliance seems wobbly in terms of people connect and Sharad Pawar appears to be gaining considerable ground. It is in Maharashtra and Bihar that the Opposition unity is intact. But again, there is no contract that cannot be broken, as Pawar hinted with his ‘googly’ about his nephew getting sworn in with Devendra Fadnavis in 2019 before the uncle changed his mind. And the role of vote-katwa or vote-splitting parties like Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen or Telangana’s ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi may also become crucial in a close contest. It is in this context that the BJP has announced the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) as its primary poll plank for the 2024 elections. Unlike the other issues on the core agenda of the Sangh Parivar, a common civil code is a constitutional requirement, which was debated and finally included in the Directive Principles by the Constituent Assembly.
The Congress or any other Opposition party hopes to defeat the BJP in 2024 on the demerits of the incumbent. So, the Opposition’s campaign is for a negative vote against the BJP. The common civil code does the same trick against the Opposition for the BJP. The UCC is a civilisational requirement for a progressive country. No nation can allow the most regressive men in society to hold others to ransom in the name of religion. The Supreme Court, in five different orders, has sought the implementation of the UCC and it is indeed the first step towards rescuing society from the stranglehold of the clergy. If the Opposition parties refuse to agree to the UCC, it is only to hold on to the orthodox Muslim votes by pleasing their vote contractors.
The UCC debate delegitimises the Opposition’s secular and progressive credentials more than anything else. The Opposition’s politicisation argument does not wash because opposing UCC for the sake of upholding the regressive Muslim clergy’s supremacy is the worst kind of electoral tactic that can be expected of any political entity. It was, after all, the overturning of the Shah Bano verdict and the banning of Salman Rushdie’s The Satanic Verses that robbed the Congress of its political legitimacy. Sure, for the BJP, the UCC is nothing but a part of its Hindutva agenda, which it will use as an expedient political weapon. But the mistake lies in the Opposition allowing the BJP to use it as a diversionary tactic. The Opposition, particularly the Left, will lose its moral compass forever when it opposes the UCC while desperately trying to split the Congress’ Muslim votes.
