No let-up in conflict
While most former Soviet republics have maintained good relations with Russia, Ukraine has, in recent years, believed that it has the political resilience and economic clout to seek substantial changes in its ties with Russia. It has done so under the leadership of its young and charismatic President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has received significant support from the US. Russia’s strong concerns about moves by the Zelenskyy government to hinder Russian access to the strategic port in Crimea and about the welfare of Russians living in southern Ukraine led to Russian military intervention in Ukraine.
The demand for natural gas is growing across Europe. Public anger will inevitably grow in Europe as freezing winter continues across EU countries and eastern Europe.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict has led to horrendous casualties on both sides. According to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Military, Gen Mark A Milley, the conflict has resulted in an estimated
1 lakh Russian troops killed or wounded, with similar figures on the Ukrainian side. He also stated that about 40,000 Ukrainian civilians and military personnel had been killed and 15 to 30 million Ukrainians displaced from their homes. The Russians have been unsparing in their response to Ukrainian attacks, with their missiles targeting electricity supply lines and destroying power supplies and communications across Ukraine. A large number of Ukrainians have been forced to shift to new locations. Russian oil and gas supplies to EU countries, like Germany, also stand cut off.
Russia has two crucial interests in its relations with Ukraine. The first is its uninterrupted access to the sea through Ukraine. Secondly, Russia has a natural interest in the safety and security of Russians living in southern Ukraine. Equipped with some of the most modern weaponry supplied by the US and its NATO allies, Ukraine had initially started pushing out Russian forces in southern Ukraine. This has been followed by devastating missile attacks by Russia, which have destroyed the infrastructure for transmission of electricity and gas. The consequences of continuing attacks are going to be devastating for the people of Ukraine.
The conflict has raised passions across Europe, with considerable sympathy for Ukraine. Developments in Ukraine now are the constant focus of international media attention. Initially, India had preferred to remain on the sidelines. PM Modi, however, became the focus of global attention at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, when he proclaimed in the presence of leaders across Asia, including Putin and Xi Jinping: ‘Today’s era is not of war and I have spoken to you about it on the call. Today, we will get an opportunity to talk about how we can progress on the path to peace.’ While most of US NATO partners, including Germany and the UK, have joined the US in military assistance to Ukraine, French President Macron appears to be leaning towards facilitating a meaningful dialogue for restoring peace in Ukraine. This broadly coincides with the position that both India and China have taken. Modi’s call for peace was endorsed by the recent G20 summit in Indonesia.
The demand for natural gas is growing across Europe. Public anger will inevitably grow in Europe as freezing winter continues across EU countries and eastern Europe. While Putin would eventually welcome a dialogue with Ukraine, his primary focus will remain on Russian access to Crimea, and possibly to the Port of Odessa in southern Ukraine. Odessa has been the centre of trade of the erstwhile Soviet Union, with countries across the world, including India. The world is also set to face a strong effort by the US and its NATO allies to restrict prices of Russian oil exports to $60 per barrel. It remains to be seen how this issue is handled.
While western countries predictably resorted to strong criticism of Moscow at the G20 summit, China and India are convinced that such criticism is not going to affect Russia’s determination. It is essential that Russia and Ukraine should meet and adopt a realistic policy to deal with the growing challenges.
Pakistan has surprised many in the world by its policies during the Ukraine crisis. Developing countries have been circumspect in dealing with both Russia and the US, though many countries have expressed disapproval of the Russian military action. Pakistan, however, initially chose to be discreet by not passing any judgement on Russia’s actions. India, China and some other countries in Asia were also circumspect and avoided being judgmental on developments in the raging conflict. The world, at large, was surprised when Pakistan provided facilities to aircraft of the British Royal Air Force to transport large amounts of Pakistani military equipment, including ammunition, to the Ukraine military — obviously, with US support. This accompanied a US declaration of supplying military equipment valued at $450 million to Pakistan.
The entire air operation was evidently supervised by Pakistan’s then army chief General Bajwa, who was, thereafter, feted during his visits to Washington and London. Astonishingly, this was followed by a visit by Pakistan’s minister of state for petroleum Musadik Malik to Moscow, where he asked his hosts for a 30%-40% discount on prices of Russian crude, and indicated that the Russians had agreed to his request. However, the Pakistan media disclosed that the minister’s talks in Moscow ‘had ended with no cogent conclusion’. The Russian side, however, reportedly agreed to consider the demand of Pakistan, and to ‘share its mind later on through diplomatic channels’.
