Myanmar’s military junta losing ground to resistance forces

UNION Home Minister Amit Shah recently announced in Assam that the 1,643-km border with Myanmar would be fenced off from Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram, and the Free Movement Regime would be suspended. Such is the fallout of the civil war in Myanmar following the military coup. Resistance forces, comprising Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and People’s Defence Force of the parallel National Unity Government (NUG), have made substantial gains. That’s the big picture I mapped from travels this month to Thailand and daily bulletins from The Irrawaddy. The junta has lost considerable ground in the north — Shan and Karenni (Kayha) states bordering China, Rakhine and Chin states and the Sagaing region along India’s border. Fighting has crept towards Mandalay but is still some distance from the strategic heartland of the Yangon valley. On January 16, The Irrawaddy reported that pressure on the country’s naval base at Yangon could put the junta in a quandary. At many places, the army has deserted, surrendered, or defected. The situation is so dire that, in some locations, soldiers’ families are picketing posts.

After the February 2021 coup, Myanmar experts, including Thailand-based Bertil Lintner, claimed that the army rank and file would hold firm as too much was at stake for them. Evidently, the Generals have failed. The Irrawaddy reported that 33 towns and 200 bases were lost in 80 days of fighting. Two major offensives were launched against the junta forces — the first on October 27, 2023, and the second on November 11 of the same year, codenamed 1,027 and 1,111 respectively, with the figures corresponding to the month and date. Op 1,027 was mounted by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA), comprising the ethnic Rakhine Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), active in the Kokang region of Shan state. During this operation, the junta lost a regional operational command centre with nearly 2,500 soldiers and families surrendering. Lt Gen Peng Deren of MNDAA in his New Year message stated that Op 1,027 aimed to close down border scam centres involved in criminal activities. As a result, five border crossings into Yunnan (China) were shut down, and 40,000 Chinese scamsters were sent back. The MNDAA is fighting to restore its authority in Kokang, which it lost to the junta. It is sweet revenge.

In Rakhine, the junta suffered losses to the Arakan Army. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Rohingya rebels have joined the AA. Similarly, in Paletwa, a major town in Chin state on the Kaladan river, a nodal point for India’s multi-modal Kaladan project, an operational command centre has fallen. The Resistance gains extend to Bago, Sagaing and Tamu districts, close to our Moreh border town caught in renewed fighting in Manipur. Op 1,111, launched by the Karenni resistance in the North-East, supported the main offensive in Shan state and captured Laukkai and Pekon where another operational command centre is under threat. This is just 200 km north of capital Naypyidaw.

Several light infantry battalions have disintegrated. The United States Institute of Peace estimate puts desertions at 8,000 (all ranks). After losses in the north, six Brigadier Generals who surrendered have been detained, the Eastern Army Commander has been relocated and the Commander, 66th Light Infantry Division, has retired. Coup leader Gen Min Aung Hlaing has appealed for a political solution. In his New Year message, he admitted his inability to provide relief and reinforcements to the beleaguered north. He also announced that the national census for voters was scheduled for this year.

China is directly and significantly affected by the defeats of the junta because it is the dominant political and economic player. After fighting erupted in the north, China facilitated a ceasefire negotiation between 3BA and Lt Gen Min Naung, head of the National Solidarity and Peace Negotiation Committee. On January 12, Beijing reported that “a ceasefire without advancing any further” had been negotiated. The AA and MNDAA made no comment on this. Foreign Minister Zin Mar Aung of NUG has issued a 10-point policy statement on genuine relations (Pauk Phaw), assuring China that its economic interests will be maintained while endorsing the ‘One China’ policy.

During the Army Day press meet recently, Indian Army Chief Gen Manoj Pande said 416 Myanmar personnel who had abandoned their posts had been sent back. Another 286 soldiers have since sought refuge after fighting in Paletwa. Clearly, AA has become a key non-state actor in Chin and Rakhine states, contiguous with India. Fighting was also reported close to Sittwe, which is India’s acquired port in Myanmar and transshipment hub for the long-delayed Kaladan project. A parallel government has been established in Chin state (Chinland), claiming sovereignty and self-determination. Mizoram’s new Lalduhoma government supports the reunification of Zo communities — Chin, Kuki and Mizos — and has expressed solidarity with Chins in Myanmar and Kukis in Manipur. New Delhi will need to establish communication with these relevant new players now.

For the junta, the situation is not critical as the two offensives were presumably aligned to serve individual EAO interests. Many EOAs have enjoyed autonomy through ceasefire arrangements with federal governments. Ethnic groups on the rise will dwarf the NUG’s influence and demand greater autonomy in a post-conflict civilian government. The AA already keeps the NUG at a distance. The junta does not have good options for recovering lost territory, given its low morale in a fight against its own people. But its elite divisions around Naypyidaw are intact. The economy is in freefall and border trade has stopped, though China will force its reopening. The loss of territory and the erosion of state cohesion are significant blows to the junta’s image as the custodian of national core values. Furthermore, the prospect of facing the International Criminal Court represents the ultimate ignominy for the Generals if they lose.