Myanmar crisis has its genesis in electoral row

After the military’s flip-flop on a takeover, Commander-in-Chief (C-in-C) and five-star Senior General Aung Hlaing declared a state of emergency for one year to ‘restore the Union’ on February 1, the day the new parliament was to convene.

Rumours and speculation late last month of a ‘threatened coup’ did not suddenly erupt in Myanmar, which has been under direct military rule for 49 years (1962 to 2011) and indirect rule since 2011. Tanks and armoured personnel carriers appeared on the streets in Yangon and roads to the new capital, Naypyidaw, were blocked.

The bone of contention is the alleged fraud during the elections on November 8 last year in which the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) scored a landslide victory and the military-backed Union Solidarity Democratic Party (USDP) was humbled. The NLD won 396 of the 476 elected seats in the two Houses of parliament while the USDP won just 33 seats.

As many as 25 per cent of the seats (166) are reserved for the military

in both Houses. The electoral victory does not change the balance of power, weighted heavily in favour of the military.

The military put out a statement that the C-in-C is in power for the duration of the emergency and Vice-President Myint Sue has been elevated as Acting President while detaining President Win Myint and NLD’s Aung San Suu Kyi. It attributed the emergency to the government and the Union Election Commission failing to clarify 10 million voting irregularities. It justified its actions under Sections 417 and 418 of the constitution. All TV channels, phone lines and internet connections were cut.

The US and other countries, besides the UN, have criticised attempts to alter the outcome of the elections and impede the democratic process. India has expressed ‘deep concern’ over the coup and the detention of top political leaders, and said the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld in Myanmar. The last coup occurred in 1988 when Suu Kyi won the elections with a massive majority.

The military gave mixed hints of its intentions of a takeover. Last February, Aung San Suu Kyi attempted to change the 2008 military-drafted Constitution, but failed as she could not get the numbers.

Senior General Hlaing, whose term expires in three months, has been hobnobbing with political opposition leaders and he has even expressed political ambitions to be vice-president, making him the first General to do so openly.

A combination of these factors had led to the coup threat being taken seriously, though Suu Kyi did not react to military utterances. Charges of political misconduct have been made against President Win Myint, Aung San Suu Kyi and Union Election Commissioner U Hla Thein. The Election Commission was asked to explain before February 1 (postponed to February 2 due to the coup rumours) when parliament was to open.

Rewind to January 26. Military spokesperson Maj Gen Zaw Min Tun told the Military True News Agency that he could neither deny nor confirm that Tatmadaw (military) would seize power, adding: ‘what we can say is we will follow existing laws and the constitution.’ The next day, Senior Gen Hlaing said: ‘Revoking 2008 constitution could be necessary under certain circumstances.’ His remarks created a storm in dozens of countries and UN Secretary General Antonio Guterrez asked the military ‘to adhere to democratic norms.’

On January 30, the military released a statement that General Hlaing had been misunderstood: Tatmadaw will abide by the current Constitution and will perform within the law by defending it. The international community, Myanmarese and State Sangha Mahanayaka resumed breathing normally even as Suu Kyi called it ‘a suitable explanation.’

The electoral row goes back to early November when General Hlaing accused the government of unacceptable mistakes in the management of elections and ‘as guardian of country, military was watching preparations closely.’ He accused UEC Thein of mishandling the elections as he had expected free and fair polling.

The President’s office reported that the military chief’s remarks violated law under Article 26 (A) which calls for the military to be free from politics. A stinging rebuke followed when the military warned the President of impeachment which was rejected by his office. On November 8, while casting his vote though, General Hlaing declared that the military would accept the voting as it is. It is reported that on January 12, General Hlaing even complained to visiting Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and on January 20, asked the UEC to provide proof that the elections were free. This ultimatum and proof of fairness of elections had to be provided before the parliament inauguration.

So why did the military renege on its chief’s words on January 26 and then have to eat its words again, saying: “Gen Hlaing was misunderstood?”

Myanmar has been under absolute military rule since General Ne Win’s coup in 1962. The 1974 Constitution was scrapped in 1988 after a massive win for the NLD. Besides political reservation for the military, it enjoys ownership of internal, defence and border affairs ministries. It controls the wealth of the nation and the clergy and is the final arbiter in Myanmar despite the Army Chief figuring fifth in the warrant of precedence. The NLD’s attempt to tinker with the constitution failed as the Constitution is impeccably change-proof.

Analysts in Yangon are mulling over the army chief’s flip-flop and then the coup. The comments on a military takeover made by Major General Tun were not off the cuff even though the Constitution provides the military with more powers and privileges than are guaranteed to any other military in the world. But the Constitution does not give the army chief the right to stage a coup. Article 40C grants sovereign power to the army chief during an emergency. But only the President can declare an emergency after consulting the National Defence Security Council (Chapter 11 of the Constitution). It also provides the military permanent representation in parliament without being elected.

Clearly, General Hlaing has violated the Constitution, without scrapping it. His political ambition, no doubt backed by China, has undermined Myanmar’s national interest and will lead to the dark unknown, but definitely sanctioning of the military.

Abrogation of the Constitution is the military signing its own death warrant. During the military uproar, Suu Kyi behaved with characteristic cool, saying on January 27 that there was no problem with the Covishield vaccine donated by India. Myanmar requires a vaccine against military rule.