Mounting domestic discontent spells trouble for Xi
BARELY had the dust settled after the disappearance of the Chinese State Councillor, the Foreign Minister and Chinese President Xi Jinping's protege Qin Gang that three months later, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu was 'removed' from his post. Li Shangfu, too, was a close associate of Xi Jinping.
Confirmation has now come on November 28 that the Political Commissar of the Central Military Commission (CMC), Admiral Miao Hua, another close associate of Xi Jinping, is under investigation. Till being placed under investigation, Miao Hua was the top official in charge of ensuring compliance with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)'s ideology and regulations throughout the PLA.
The sudden fall of three of Xi Jinping's close associates points to dissatisfaction with Xi Jinping in the senior echelons of the CCP and certainly signals that all is not well inside Zhongnanhai — the residential walled compound in Beijing of the senior-most Chinese leaders.
The recent dismissals in the PLA Rocket Force, together with the removal of some senior generals, suggests problems in the PLA. Indicating that the circle of enquiry among senior PLA officers has expanded, latest reports, though as yet unconfirmed, state that the Commander of the PLA Eastern Theatre Command, General Lin Xiangyang, and till now Chief of Staff of the CMC Joint Staff Department and CMC member Liu Zhenli are both being investigated. The Eastern Theatre Command is the frontline command for operations against Taiwan. Liu Zhenli is the senior-most PLA officer. Chinese Defence Minister Admiral Dong Jun is already under investigation.
Rumours have been circulating for some months of a power struggle in the PLA's top echelons. There are two strands of rumours. One is that General He Weidong's 'helicopter' promotion as one of the two CMC Vice-Chairmen has been resented by senior PLA officers, who feel that he was not adequately experienced or senior. The other is that there is rivalry between General Zhang Youxia and General He Weidong. The former is a war veteran, having fought in the war with Vietnam and General He Weidong has experience of confrontation with Taiwan. The latter is influential in the Southern and Eastern Theatre Commands. He Weidong also forged close personal ties with Xi Jinping and the two were drinking buddies when Xi Jinping was posted in Fujian Province. The rumours claim that He Weidong represents a "Taiwan faction" in the PLA.
Zhang Youxia, the senior Vice-Chairman of the CMC, is also a 'princeling' and close second-generation family friend of Xi Jinping. Their fathers served together in the 1940s. This proximity and Zhang Youxia's reputation as a military professional prompted Xi Jinping to retain him in the CMC as Vice-Chairman at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, though he had crossed the retirement age. Zhang Youxia was also re-appointed as one of the two PLA officers to the CCP CC Politburo. As the senior-most General in the PLA, Zhang Youxia commands considerable respect among PLA personnel and veterans.
Miao Hua, who held the PLA Navy rank of Admiral, was, till his removal last week, the Director of the CMC Political Work Department and a member of the CMC. He was retained as Director of the CMC Political Work Department and CMC member at the 20th Party Congress. Miao Hua is the first among an elite group of officers who earned their spurs in the PLA's 31st Group Army in the Nanjing Military Region near Xiamen. He and others, like former People's Armed Police Commander Wang Ning and new PLA Army Commander Han Weiguo, came into contact with Xi Jinping who was the Deputy Party Secretary of Fujian. All their careers were fast-tracked.
Miao Hua is a close associate of Xi Jinping and their tenures overlapped when Xi Jinping was Party Secretary of the Zhejiang province. In mid-2012, Miao Hua was promoted as Deputy Political Commissar of the Lanzhou MR and Secretary of its Discipline Inspection Commission and, within months, was appointed the Political Commissar of the Lanzhou Military Region. Considering that the Lanzhou Military Region was long regarded as a powerbase of Guo Boxiong of the Jiang Zemin faction, Miao Hua would have had a role in the investigations against Guo Boxiong and removing remnants of his influence in the region. Miao Hua was among the senior PLA officers who published articles in April 2014, pledging loyalty to Xi Jinping. General Miao Hua was given a double promotion by Xi Jinping to become one of the PLA's youngest officers to be promoted to the rank of PLA General.
The ouster of Miao Hua, for whatever reason, could mean that his associates, proteges and persons appointed on his recommendation would now be subject to renewed vetting. This could include CMC Vice-Chairman General He Weidong. Given Miao Hua's long tenure as Political Commissar in the CMC, he would have had a key role in the elevation and appointment of many senior PLA officers.
But the implications of these removals would be wider. They point to either poor judgment of personnel by Chinese President Xi Jinping, or that Xi Jinping is himself under attack. There is enough popular dissatisfaction, including within the CCP, with Xi Jinping's policies. The slowdown of the economy and consequent joblessness, graduate unemployment and rising cost of living have aggravated societal discontent.
A lot depends on the extent of support Xi Jinping enjoys in the PLA and whether there is substance in the rumours of differences between Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. The looming unpredictability in China-US relations amid mounting domestic dissatisfaction point to difficult times ahead for Xi Jinping.
