Israel-Iran face-off adds fuel to West Asia fire
AFTER reaching an understanding with the Joe Biden administration, Israel despatched about 100 aircraft to bomb 20 select targets in Tehran, Khuzestan and Ilam provinces of Iran on October 26, reportedly including its air defence systems such as S-400, S-300, missile and drone manufacturing units and other military targets. The Israeli strike was in response to more than 180 missiles which Iran had fired at Israel on October 1 to damage its military bases. Since the US and its allies had insisted that Iran’s nuclear installations and oil production facilities must not be attacked to prevent a wider war, the Israelis focused on making Iran ‘defenceless’, destroying its radar facilities for future strikes. Israel also decided not to attack the top Iranian leadership to avoid provoking the Iranian military to retaliate with a second strike on Israel.
The Iranian Foreign Minister had told Arab governments earlier that Iran did not want a wider war and it could absorb an Israeli retaliatory strike if military sites were targeted rather than sensitive oil or nuclear facilities. The extent of the damage to Iranian military facilities is not clear as the Islamic regime has prohibited its people from revealing details in order to prevent a national uproar. The Ayatollah Khomeini international airport in Tehran was reopened for normal flights after the Israeli military announced that its overnight attacks on Iran had concluded. The US had warned Iran that if it decided to retaliate, it (US) would join the war on behalf of Israel and cause massive damage. Israel also bombed military targets in Syria and Iraq; there were reports of fire at several places.
Iran’s reaction so far has been restrained. It has stated that the Israeli strike had resulted in only ‘limited’ damage and it would humiliate Israel again. But Iran is not talking about taking any punitive action against Israel immediately. Iran needs time to rebuild its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and others which have been dealt a devastating blow by Israel.
President Biden monitored the progress of the Israeli strikes from his office. The ‘controlled and limited’ conflict allowed both Israel and Iran to save face domestically without triggering a wider conflict which could damage their economies and those of other countries. A full-blown regional war would have carried significant repercussions for US domestic politics as Democratic Party candidate Kamala Harris is in a close race against Republican nominee Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential elections. Harris has called for de-escalation of this conflict to attract the support of Black, Arab, Muslim and Hispanic voters.
What are the lessons from the Iran-Israel conflict? First, Iran has buttressed its comprehensive national power by mastering the nuclear fuel cycle and manufacturing advanced weapons. After this round, it is likely that Iran would augment its security by taking remaining steps to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has reportedly reached an agreement with Russia to begin manufacturing the advanced Sukhoi-35 fighter aircraft in exchange for setting up similar facilities in Russia to manufacture various missiles. It is already building drones, autonomous vehicles, submarines and other advanced weapons. Iran is also likely to seek more advanced air defence systems such as S-400 from Russia to protect its sensitive installations. With its revolutionary Islamic ideology strongly guiding its foreign policy, Iran would continue to play the role of a disruptor in any reorientation of the political or economic framework of the region.
Second, though the US continues to wield predominant influence in West Asia, it can’t impose a solution of its choice anymore in the region. The Great Powers’ rivalry has intensified, with Russia and China actively supporting Iran, Syria and others. It will become more difficult for the US to impose sanctions against the sale of oil by Iran in future as many BRICS countries are now keen to transact oil purchases in local currencies, bypassing Western mechanisms.
Third, the current war has further diminished the prospects of finding a solution to the Palestinian issue or other problems festering in West Asia. While most countries are now in favour of a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem, Israeli PM Netanyahu does not want to even consider such a suggestion. His priority is to continue attacking Iranian proxies in the region and decimate their infrastructure and power. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza and southern Lebanon has worsened and there is no consensus yet on ending the conflict, the return of Israeli and other hostages and future governance of the Gaza Strip.
After the beginning of Israel’s war in Gaza, the Biden administration had four important objectives: supporting Israel’s war to eliminate the threat posed by Hamas; helping to secure the release of hostages; protection of civilians; and preventing an all-out war in the region. While the threat from Hamas has been considerably neutralised and a regional war has been prevented, the Biden administration has failed to prevent the killing of more than 42,000 Palestinians, including a large number of civilians and children. Two million Palestinians are facing a major humanitarian disaster, and about 3,000 people have died in Lebanon.
While Iran, Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah bear the main responsibility for the ongoing violence, the Biden administration must also accept blame as the most important foreign policy actor in the region and chief enabler of the war. The breaking out of a direct war between the two regional powers, Israel and Iran has put West Asia in a dangerous bind. India has rightly reminded all parties that the “ongoing hostilities are to nobody’s benefit as innocent hostages and civilian populations continue to suffer. They should exercise restraint and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy”.
