Iran-Israel war takes a dangerous turn

AFTER Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and other leaders in Beirut on September 27, Iran fired around 200 missiles at Israel on October 1 without warning the USA. While most missiles were stopped by US and Israeli defence systems, a few hit Israel's Nevatim air base, damaging about 30 F-35 fighter jets. No one was killed, but a few people had minor injuries.

Not to escalate the conflict further, the Biden administration is trying to belittle the success of the Iranian attack, urging Israel to be proportionate in its response. Israel, on the other hand, is angry that Iran had the audacity to lob missiles at its nuclear plant in Dimona (producing nuclear weapons) and three critical air bases. It is mulling a tough response.

Iran's attack came after a series of killings by Israel of the senior leadership of Hezbollah, other cadres in pager explosions, the bombing of Yemeni ports, power plants and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in recent months. Iran realised that its lack of response had whetted the Israeli aggressiveness in killing its proxies in Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Syria and it had to act this time.

The Iran-Israel war has taken a dangerous turn as the two countries are now readying themselves for a direct fight, which they have avoided in the past. Iran reportedly looted an Israeli oil tanker in the Persian Gulf recently and Israel is contemplating an attack on its oil installations.

Iran has made it known that it does not want to attack Israel any further, but if the latter destroyed its oil facility, it would destroy oil wells of the pro-American Gulf states and US military bases in Middle East.

Most US allies want a ceasefire and no further escalation of hostilities. Several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain. Kuwait and Qatar, have declared their neutrality in the war and assured Iran that they would not allow the USA to use military bases on their soil against her.

Israel does not have the capability to take on Iran and its proxies together on its own. Even the attacks on Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon and targets in Yemen and Syria were undertaken mostly by American fighters, with Israeli pilots playing a symbolic role.

The US can't allow Israel to lose and does not want a full-scale regional war at this time when it is readying for the presidential elections next month. Any Israeli loss will affect the support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris as Republican candidate Donald Trump has promised to solidly rally behind Israel. Also, the US does not want to get involved in a major war in Middle East as it would affect its ability to prepare for a war against China in East Asia.

Israel can't allow Iran to walk away with a victory nor allow its "strategic superiority" against Iran to be weakened as it considers that crucial for the maintenance of peace and stability in the region. Iran has already suffered a huge fall in its prestige and military capabilities with the decimation of the top leadership of its proxies. Israel was keen to destroy Iran's nuclear facility, but that looks difficult as Iran has secured Russia's S-400 air defence system. However, Israel thinks that it has a golden opportunity now to weaken Iran by destroying its proxies and it must not let it go.

Russia is sympathetic to Iran, with the latter having supplied drones and missiles to her, but has its hands full with the Ukraine war. Russia and China will assist Iran to ensure that the USA gets bogged down in West Asia and damage its military capabilities. Russia is considering supplying long-range Onyx anti-ship missiles to Houthi rebels to attack western shipping in the Red Sea.

Prime Minister Modi has been in touch with PM Netanyahu and has supported him in taking strong measures against the terrorist groups. But External Affairs Minister Jaishankar has cautioned Israel against taking any actions which could precipitate large-scale casualties, particularly of civilians. India favours a two-state solution to the Palestinian problem, which even the USA and other countries want, but Netanyahu does not favour ceding any land to them.

India and other developing countries would be worried at the eruption of a full-scale regional war which could play havoc with the supply and prices of oil, gas and other commodities, disrupt travel and transportation of goods, damage environment and lead to the weakening of their currencies. Modi has called a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security to discuss the implications of this war.

The USA favours a limited response by Israel, without targeting Iran's nuclear plant or its top leadership. While the Biden administration has done the most to assist Israel by the provision of political, economic, military assistance, Biden exercises little control on Netanyahu. The latter did not listen to Biden in taking ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, Rafah crossing or ground hostilities in Lebanon and it may not listen this time, too.

The only restraining factor is that Israel does not have the military capability to undertake sustained long-range bombing of Iran. But Netanyahu has great ability to get the Biden administration to support him whenever he needs by influencing the all-powerful Jewish lobby in the USA. That introduces an element of unpredictability in the future trajectory of the Iran-Israeli war.

It is important for all major powers and influential leaders in Israel to put pressure on Netanyahu to not take any riskier steps, such as damaging Iranian oil installations, as that could take the world to the brink of a huge disaster.

India and Russia could play a vital role by asking Iran not to take any precipitate steps.