India and Nepal must start talks on Agnipath urgently

THE Agnipath scheme, the intended new Gorkha connect between India and Nepal, was intriguingly not taken up by either side during recent talks between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’. Not a single Nepal-domiciled Gorkha (NDG) has been enrolled in the past three years due to the Covid pandemic and Nepal being unable to decide on the Agnipath’s terms of service that are not favoured by the famed warriors.

Before Prachanda’s visit to India, Nepal’s Foreign Minister Narayan Prakash Saud told BBC (Nepali) that they were not prepared for discussions on the Agnipath scheme. While Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra confirmed that no talks on Agnipath were held, Prachanda, in reply to a question from a Nepali journalist, said he had raised the matter informally, but would clarify on his return to Nepal. With whom he had raised the issue is not clear. Was it with PM Modi? Or with NSA Ajit Doval, who called on him separately? During Prachanda’s ‘grilling’ by the Opposition in Parliament, where he was accused of a sellout to India, Agnipath was not mentioned.

Last August, the then Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka informed Indian Ambassador in Kathmandu Naveen Srivastava that political consensus was needed on Agnipath and only a new government would decide on it after the elections. It is now one year since Agnipath was launched, but Nepal has been unable to take a call in the absence of a stable government with a full Cabinet. Pressing issues such as the Budget presentation last month prevented Prachanda from taking up the recruitment scheme.

When I met Prachanda on April 9 in Kathmandu, no urgency was indicated over Agnipath even though PM Modi had, in 2014, hailed Gorkha bravehearts for shedding blood in every war India had fought. The scheme became a stumbling block as the large Indian ex-servicemen’s community along with its extended families (approximately 2 lakh) preferred the traditional 15-year service, OROP (one rank, one pension) and elaborate welfare facilities. Army Chief Gen Manoj Pande, also an honorary General of the Nepal Army, created a stir last September on returning from Nepal when he told journalists that if Kathmandu did not decide in time on Agnipath, NDG vacancies would be offered to others.

Gorkha regiments are the worst affected by manpower shortage resulting from a recruitment drought. Gorkha battalions recruit both NDGs and Indian-domiciled Gorkhas (IDGs) in a proportion that has declined from 80:20 to 60:40. However, there have been reservations over foreign recruitment. In Nepal, they were mainly among the communists, especially Maoists, who raised the issue in 1990, calling it ‘demeaning’; Indian objections precede the Maoist resistance as in 1973, a proposal to phase out the Gorkhas emanated from the Indian Embassy in Kathmandu. Fortunately, the then Army Chief, Gen Gopal Bewoor, Colonel of 11 Gorkha Rifles, prevailed upon the then PM, Indira Gandhi, to reject the proposal.

The idea of reducing NDG intake resurfaced when the then Army Chief, Gen Bipin Rawat, also from 11 Gorkha Rifles, ordered experimental raising of a battalion composed entirely of IDGs (6/1 Gorkha Rifles), sending Nepal a signal on the longevity and legacy of Nepali Gorkhas. What he had not realised was that the IDGs were few in number, lacking the requisite minimum standards. Banking on the IDGs, Kumaonis, Garhwalis and tribals from the North-East to fill the NDG void is impractical and unrealistic; it is also non-strategic. The NDGs who shed blood in protecting India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty are a pillar of the bilateral relations.

Although the 1947 tripartite recruitment treaty between Nepal, Britain and India is outdated, its spirit is alive. Much of its spirit, including ‘consultation’, has evaporated, though its ethos and integrity were acknowledged by then PM Nehru on December 6, 1947, before the Constituent Assembly. He thanked Nepal for letting India retain the Gorkhas in service, a sign of close ties between the two countries. Although Agnipath does not technically violate the tripartite treaty, as Nepal’s former Defence Minister Bhim Rawal has alleged, it does rip apart the residual spirit, especially the absence of consultation when the 75-year-old recruitment scheme was radically altered. A key mention in the treaty is of ‘equal treatment’ of Gorkhas with Indian Army personnel; this has been meticulously observed with some welfare measures provided inside Nepal that are not available to the rest of the Indian Army.

The extraordinary relief and compensation pledged to demobilised Agniveers, especially the lateral induction into Central paramilitary forces, are not available to the NDGs. Many other facilities, such as re-employment in private and public industries and financial loans, are also unlikely as there will be no level playing field for the NDGs residing in Nepal. Khem Jung Gurung, a former Subedar Major in the Indian Army who is also the president of the Nepal Ex-servicemen and Police Federation and a member of the Central Committee of the Janata Samajwadi Party (one of the seven parties supporting the government), has highlighted grave infirmities in Agnipath with regard to Nepal. Ploughing back highly trained Agniveers into society when Maoist and Madhesi insurgencies are dormant is a dangerous proposition.

It will be tough to obtain consensus on Agnipath. While the ruling legislators are Maoists and Communists/Socialists, the Opposition’s Unified Marxist-Leninist party is led by India-baiter former PM KP Oli. Still, due to a job drought, the government might allow Nepali youth to be hired at recruiting depots in India, not at recruitment rallies on Nepalese soil. The options before India are relaxing Agnipath norms (seven years’ service and 50 per cent re-enlistment); exemption from Agnipath; and, most likely, no change, in which case be prepared for a reduction in the Gorkha battalions, their Indianisation through IDGs and tribals from the North-East and eventual dismantling of the 75-year-old Indian Gorkha Brigade, spelling the end of special relations with Nepal.

Lobbyists in Nepal are threatening that China, which has been demanding parity with India, will recruit NDGs. That is unlikely; it will breach the ultimate red line with India. But India and Nepal must start talks on Agnipath urgently as Gorkha training depots are lying idle for want of recruits. Strategic patience has its downside.