In fighting form
The BJP will win easily in Gujarat. Some of its erstwhile supporters may vote for the AAP, but that will only make the party work harder to assure ultimate victory. Gujarat has become the crucible of Hindutva ideology. Modi and his acolyte, Amit Shah, both belong to that state. They cannot afford to lose Gujarat and they will not lose it.
The Morbi bridge collapse, rising prices and unemployment should have combined to conspire against a cakewalk for the BJP, but what gives it the edge is Modi’s persona.
Modi has put in much effort during the current electioneering. It could be that the Congress, and Rahul Gandhi in particular, gave him a scare in the last Assembly elections, forcing him to make Herculean efforts in the last round of voting in the state. This time, that same level of effort on the part of Rahul and his party is not in evidence. The AAP has replaced the Congress as the main opposition party, at least in the streets of Surat and some notable cities in the Saurashtra belt.
The Congress cannot be written off, though. Its influence in the rural areas and the tribal belt is still apparent. It can compete with the AAP for the position of the main opposition party, but the AAP is certain to pluck a sizeable amount of votes from the Congress, just as sizeable as the number of BJP voters it will lure away. Yet, Modi’s personal attraction is too strong for the AAP or the Congress to battle.
The Morbi bridge collapse, the rising prices of essential commodities and unemployment should have all combined to conspire against a cakewalk for the BJP, but the one factor that counter balances all the negatives, and even gives the party the edge, is the persona of Modi. It rescues the party and paints it as the party of salvation, even though some of its policies should trouble the conscience of thinking citizens.
Take, for instance, the release of the convicts in the Bilkis Bano rape and murder case. Modi has been repeating ad nauseam that women should be treated like princesses, but the 11 convicts were released prematurely with the consent of the ‘double-engine’ governments in the state and at the Centre, though their crime was heinous.
Recently, Ram Rahim, a ‘godman’ with an eye for women, also convicted for rapes and murders, was let out of jail on parole — not for the first time — by a state government that swears by the ‘double-engine’. Where is the fear required to be generated in the minds of rapists and murderers if they are sure that they will be treated with kid gloves by governments that are guided more by a preference for votes rather than the rule of law?
And then, there is also the BJP’s sharply-honed skill in enticing elected representatives to defect when election results do not give the party a clear mandate! A ‘party with a difference’ should not flaunt its ‘difference’ in ways that are shameful and condemnable. Other parties have also indulged in such malpractices earlier, but the BJP has made it a matter of habit, and perfected the policy of engineering defections to a fine art.
Winning elections is the sine qua non for attaining power. But to stoop so low is not what a party striving for the RSS goal of a ‘Hindu rashtra’ should instil into the DNA of members of the majority community. For instance, even if the BJP felt that the premature release of the Bilkis Bano convicts was essential for garnering votes in the coming elections, was it necessary to publicly felicitate them? By doing so, the BJP made a mockery of the entire judicial process system and the rule of law!
I have always liked the people of Gujarat and would like to believe that my feelings were reciprocated. Rajesh Pilot once asked me if I had ever thought of entering politics. He said the Congress would be willing to offer me any seat from Gujarat if I did. He was sure I would sail through! I do not know the logic behind his calculations, but I was not cut out for politics and I told him so.
That the people of Gujarat were my friends I had no doubt. After all, I had been a friend of theirs! Why would they not reciprocate? Business acumen was the defining spirit of the Gujarati, though only the Bania community was prominent in pursuing the profit motive. In their personal interaction with those in authority, the Gujarati is always polite, even fearful, in a manner of speaking. In particular, the uniformed men — in the Army and the police — are treated with great respect. I presume that is because in their subconscious, security of their property is paramount.
Gujarati society was ripe for Hindutva’s bite — and it was not only bitten, but smitten! The Sangh Parivar used Gujarat as its staging ground for its campaign for a ‘Hindu rashtra’. Gujarati society was ready for such ideas. The Muslim was always an enigma to a gentle and peace-loving people. The fact that the temple at Somnath was sacked and looted by Alauddin Khilji, not once but twice, had stuck in the collective memory. It rankled.
Himachal Pradesh, however, will not be so easy for the BJP. The outcome is still uncertain. The electorate consists of a sizeable percentage of ‘forward’ caste voters who could normally be counted as BJP supporters. To add spice to the quotient, the Supreme Court has given a boost to the BJP’s efforts by sanctioning a quota for the poorer sections of castes presently not covered by reservation.
This will favour sections of the majority population aspiring for government jobs and seats in higher educational institutions. But whether that alone will help is doubtful. The state is known to reject the ruling dispensation every five years. The indifferent performance of the BJP government in its last term in office is sure to be a factor that will militate against giving it another term, despite Modi’s personal exhortations.
A caveat — these calculations are my own!
