Imponderables in Gujarat pre-poll scenario

Radhika Ramaseshan

Senior Journalist

A black swan — that was the phrase a senior Gujarat BJP leader used to describe the Aam Aadmi Party, which is looking to register more than a token presence in the state elections. The characterisation reflected a degree of seriousness in the BJP’s view of AAP, which was a non-starter in the 2017 polls. The Congress is sanguine about retaining its space as the main Opposition party. So, in essence, for the Congress it boils down to not whether the BJP will be upstaged after ruling Gujarat for 27 years but who will occupy the second place. Isudan Gadhvi, AAP’s chief-ministerial face, rather audaciously claimed that the elections were not about creating a third party but a rite of passage for his party, as though it were about to displace the BJP.

The unpredictability about AAP arose largely from the Congress’ seemingly lackadaisical attitude towards these elections. It is still unclear what the Congress’ Gujarat agenda is: fighting to displace the BJP from pole position or struggling to retain the second place? Five years ago, Rahul Gandhi had addressed nearly 40 meetings, went on a hectic temple sojourn whose defining moment was the Congress’ declaration that he was a ‘janeu dhari’ Hindu (a sacred-thread-donning Hindu) after a controversy arose during a Somnath temple stopover and the party’s Navsarjan Yatra. Ahmed Patel, Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary, was the pivot on which rested the electioneering and Patel deputed Ashok Gehlot (who was then not the Rajasthan chief minister) as the impresario. The efforts paid off. The Congress netted 77 of the 182 seats, its highest output since 1990, while the BJP was down to 99, its lowest tally since 1995.

This time, Rahul has been too preoccupied with the Bharat Jodo Yatra to give Gujarat much attention. His sibling, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, tried to fill in his absence in Himachal Pradesh, but seems indifferent to this western state. Her last Gujarat visit was in February 2019 when the Congress Working Committee met in Ahmedabad. Ahmed Patel passed away in 2020, leaving the Congress without a resident commander-in-chief. Gehlot is around, but not steering the ship because he has Rajasthan and his internal struggles to contend with. The Congress lost a considerable number of legislators to the BJP in 2017, increasing its respectable gap with the BJP from 22 to 49.

The objective circumstances that favoured the party were non-existent. There is no Patidar or backward caste agitation against the BJP, the Centre and the state government have apparently tided over the issues — primarily demonetisation and a GST regime — that triggered enormous economic distress in the villages although the ruling party was beset with other challenges.

On top of it, the Congress has not fashioned a narrative to confront the BJP and force a response. An incumbent government ruling for 27 years should have unspooled issue after issue for the Opposition, but going by the Congress’ inability to think up a strong slogan, it appeared as though the BJP sat pretty.

The Congress took certain remedial measures to galvanise its organisation, although it has not played its A game so far. For starters, it strengthened the booth network because it realised that AAP's structures were not in place and it could score on this count. It organised local rath yatras, one to cover two constituencies, and to purvey the message that the Congress had laid the foundation of India’s development long before the BJP arrived. Indeed, its mantra was “Congress’ work speaks for itself”, which is as safe and uncontroversial as it gets.

Aware that the BJP had eaten into its traditional Adivasi votes, especially in the 27 reserved seats of which the Congress won 17 in 2017, the party canvassed for support from every home, assuring the Adivasis that if elected, it will protect their right to ‘jal, jungle and jameen’ (water, forests and land). The Congress manifesto enshrined the promises put forth by Rahul Gandhi at one of the meetings he addressed in Ahmedabad last September. These included the payment of Rs 4 lakh as Covid compensation, farm loan waiver up to Rs 3 lakh and free electricity of up to 300 units per house.

The entry of AAP spurred a matchup on vows, on which party could outdo the other in gifting away lollipops. If the Congress followed up on Rahul’s pro-sop speech, the BJP, despite PM Modi’s well-known aversion to ‘freebies’, belatedly opened Santa Claus' sling bag. Among the goodies tumbling out were freeing the land given as compensation to those displaced by the Ukai dam in 1972, relief to fishermen using kerosene- and petrol-run boats and sanctioning pending payments to those operating cattle shelters.

Gujarat is not known to have an appetite for 'third parties'. It votes for the Congress or the BJP. Chimanbhai Patel, regarded as the most influential Patidar leader to date, had no luck with the Kisan Mazdoor Lok Paksha or the Janata Dal (G) which he floated. Shankersinh Vaghela launched three outfits after rebelling and quitting the BJP: the Rashtriya Janata Party, the Jan Vikalp Morcha and recently, the Prajasakti Democratic Party. He finally realised the futility of a "third front" and decided to campaign for the Congress in the ongoing elections. Another high-profile BJP dissident, Keshubhai Patel, went the same way, but his Gujarat Parivartan Party made no impact. An explanation was that they lacked the workforce of their parent parties because the cadre, especially that of the BJP, would not countenance quitters.

AAP, in that sense, is not a third force born of the BJP or the Congress. It is there on its own, with a war machine and a pro-welfare programme that has influenced the Congress and the BJP's discourse. Whether these factors will significantly impact its showing is another imponderable.

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