General who calls the shots

IMRAN KHAN has been a mercurial and controversial person, whether in his days as a successful cricket captain, or in his marriages that commenced with his marriage to the daughter of a wealthy Jewish socialite. That marriage lasted nine years. He then married a Pakistani journalist. The second marriage lasted nine months, before he married his ‘spiritual mentor’ Bushra Maneka, who has Sufi orientation. However, queries are raised about her fondness for expensive jewellery! Khan is also known to have adversarial views about India, both in cricket and politics, and displays radical Islamic thinking in political life. His Tehreek-e-Insaf was swept to power primarily because of his charisma. The Pulwama attack in 2019 and the tensions that followed were attributed to the then PM Imran Khan’s support to jihadi organisations.

The US and its allies would welcome a continuing presence of Bajwa in Pakistan’s military affairs, but Russia will neither forget nor forgive Pakistan anytime soon.

He believes that his ouster was planned and executed by Army chief General Bajwa with US backing. He, however, did his country no service by earning the wrath of Saudi Crown Prince Salman by getting too close to Turkey and Malaysia. The Saudi royalty, which has close links with the Sharif family, welcomed Shehbaz Sharif’s appointment as PM and resumed financial aid to Pakistan. Imran has accused the Biden administration of participating in a ‘regime change conspiracy’. He played the ‘blame game’ with the US clumsily. There have been credible reports suggesting that the ISI did play a role in undermining his government.

There is widespread belief in Pakistan that there was ‘US hand’ in the installation of a coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League, arising from defections by Imran’s supporters. It was evidently a skillful ‘political management’ by the ISI which brought together erstwhile arch-rivals like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Bhuttos’ People’s Party. Subsequent months have been spent in trying to get Nawaz Sharif, now in London, acquitted of charges levelled against him, and for his safe return to Pakistan.

However, there appears to be a growing sentiment in Pakistan that Imran’s ouster is unacceptable. This has been manifested by the wide support for his candidates in the byelections held after his ouster.

General Bajwa has pleased the US and its allies in many ways. Imran’s ouster was merely the first step. There was then the assistance obviously provided by Pakistan for a US drone strike that killed Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was housed by the Taliban near Kabul. This enabled President Biden to declare: ‘We are developing a counter-terrorism over-the-horizon capability that will allow us to keep our eyes firmly fixed on any direct threats to the United States in the region, and act quickly and decisively, if needed.’ It is no secret that the ISI had reliable information on the hideouts of Al Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan. The Bajwa-US ‘nexus’ was in full swing. More evidence is emerging that he is a close associate of the US-British camp on developments across the world, most notably in Ukraine.

A cash-strapped Pakistan, meanwhile, faces bankruptcy and is desperately seeking assistance from the US, the EU, IMF and the World Bank for survival.

After praising and approving a $450 million package of military assistance for Pakistan, largely for maintenance, upgrading and operational use of American-supplied F-16 fighter aircraft, Biden averred that Pakistan could well be defined as ‘one of the most dangerous nations in the world’. He added that Pakistan had ‘nuclear weapons without any cohesion’. The State Department, however, immediately stepped in to heap praise on Pakistan for promoting US interests.

The British, meanwhile, spared no effort to flatter General Bajwa by inviting him as the guest of honour at the Sandhurst Military Academy. This was accompanied by an airlift of Pakistani military equipment and ammunition from the Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi in a Boeing C-17 aircraft of the British Royal Air Force — through Romania — for use in Ukraine.

The Russians will neither forget nor forgive Pakistan anytime soon.

The Election Commission of Pakistan found Imran guilty of improprieties and set aside his election to Parliament, which was soon overturned by the high court. This is obviously the beginning of a bitter legal process to debar him from future elections. This move will inevitably result in widespread demonstrations across Pakistan. The ISI and the Shehbaz Sharif government will spare no effort to get him debarred by the judiciary from participating in the parliamentary elections scheduled for December 2023. Both the US and Saudi Arabia dislike Imran, who could possibly sweep the polls next year, unless it becomes legally impermissible for him to contest.

An important event next month in Pakistan is the scheduled retirement of General Bajwa on November 29. While he could get yet another two-year extension, there will be pressure on the Sharif government to not extend his term. The US and its allies would obviously welcome a continuing presence of Bajwa in Pakistan’s military affairs, which will ensure that military supplies and support by Pakistan to Ukraine continue smoothly.