Focus on neighbourhood at the core of India’s foreign policy
The BJP-led NDA government has claimed that India’s foreign policy has moved towards establishing the nation as a decisive player in global politics over the past nine years. Backed by a strong majority in Parliament, the Modi government has had plenty of leeway in shaping foreign policy, in contrast to the coalition governments that ruled from 1991 to 2014.
At the practical level, no government can perform miracles in the realm of foreign policy without domestic economic strength and a favourable geopolitical environment. US diplomats advance their interests with the economic and military leverage at their disposal. The diplomatic weight of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the political and economic alliance of the six West Asian countries correlate with the wealth accrued from crude oil and, thus, enhance their ability to scout for newer investment opportunities globally.
An assessment of India’s foreign policy over the past nine years shows that it is not much in contrast to the post-liberalisation foreign policy orientation as changes in geopolitical dynamics and domestic strength determine the overall engagement.
In India’s case, the current foreign policy priorities pertain to the neighbourhood, including Pakistan and the economically disconnected South Asian region, besides relations with the US, the Gulf countries, ASEAN and the European nations. There is also the Chinese challenge as well as the military and economic dependence on Russia. Africa and Latin America are also becoming important as new frontiers of engagement.
The present trend lines are similar to what happened with Japan and South Korea in their era of industrial expansion. Their diplomats created newer trading opportunities in West Asia and Africa, apart from the traditional European and North-American economic zones.
In the context of the neighbourhood, the economic potential of the India-Pakistan relationship is predicated on the security aspect. Strikes across the Line of Control have been carried out as a deterrent in response to cross-border acts of terrorism. These strikes have put the onus on the Pakistani state. The relations with Bangladesh, whose per capita income has surpassed India’s, are in line with the stance of the previous governments as there is a determined support to the Sheikh Hasina government. Both governments are careful in managing occasional irritants of domestic politics that spill over to the other side. The $1-billion credit facility that India extended to Sri Lanka last year is part of the lessons that the Indian government has learnt over the years to engage with and support the country without getting entangled in its ethnic fault lines.
India’s external engagement is getting greater visibility outside the region. China’s economic and military threat has made India shed its inhibitions in terms of its military partnership with the US. Efforts are on to accelerate US-India defence co-development and co-production, keeping in mind the initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET).
Scepticism about the future of the bilateral relationship matters little in the context of the US stakes in Asia and India’s military and economic needs, which are creating win-win opportunities. Apart from the bipartisan consensus within the US, the relationship is a work in progress. The then PM Narasimha Rao’s visit to the US in May 1994 was a watershed moment and the progress continued during PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s tenure. The then PM Manmohan Singh got the credit for stitching the 2005 India-US nuclear deal despite opposition by the Left allies.
India’s ability to utilise potential foreign investments judiciously in key employable sectors will be shaped by its domestic capacity. China’s present economic power is seen as a consequence of the US support after the 1972 Nixon initiative as it tried to wean it away from the Soviet Union. China’s heavy outlays in education and health enabled it to create a trained citizenry to capitalise on that rare economic opportunity.
In India, southern states are ahead of the others because of their higher investment in health and education. FDI will flow to the states which are ready for the investors. For instance, Apple established its unit in Tamil Nadu in 2017 and will set up one in Karnataka in 2024.
The Modi government has got credit for its engagement with the Gulf countries. There were occasions when the anti-Muslim narrative of some members of the ruling party triggered a sharp response from the Gulf, but damage control was quick. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, along with China, Turkey and Egypt, didn’t participate in the G20 Tourism Working Group meeting in Srinagar in May, but the development was underplayed in the larger interest of bilateral relations. India has faced criticism from Turkey on the developments in J&K, but Foreign Minister S Jaishankar has been quick to retaliate diplomatically by underlining that the UNSC resolutions in respect of Cyprus must be respected. The engagement with Russia seems to be because of its dependence on the available cheaper crude oil and weaponry servicing.
A serious challenge that the Modi government has faced is China’s military adventurism in Ladakh. The huge military and economic gap between the two nations has led the government to avoid being hyper-aggressive on this issue in the public domain. This indicates the importance of domestic capabilities over mere grandstanding.
Comparing the Modi government to its predecessors in terms of foreign policy is unfair as the context is constantly evolving. The most populous country in the world, with 65 per cent of the population below 35 years, is an attractive market for the world. In order to alleviate poverty, a basic domestic economic ecosystem, including trained human resources, social cohesion, higher female participation in economic activities and the rule of law, is needed to translate the external initiatives and claims into outcomes on the ground.
