Drones add new dimension to air warfare

Defence Analyst

There has been some hand-wringing on social media about the alleged procurement of Turkish Bayraktar drones by Pakistan. Though the numbers are unknown, one machine has apparently been picked up by satellites at Murid Air Base located in Chakwal. Even assuming that the open-source “intelligence” is valid, let us take it for granted that drones would be a part of any future war anywhere. We have already seen the use of a quad copter-kind of platform, sporting two IED warheads over the Jammu Air Force Station technical area on June 27, 2021, clearly a trial run by our adversaries.

Now whilst analysing such plausible aerial threats, where the platform is located, is secondary and inherent operational parameters become more relevant. Whether the Pakistan Air Force, or for that matter China’s PLAAF, would embark on any aerial excursion into Indian territory employing drones alone or in concert with conventional air power and missiles is a moot point. But the fact remains that the capabilities of the enemy drone assets need evaluation before countering them through anti-drone measures and other means available to an air force touted to be a leading exponent of air power orchestration historically and generally accepted as such. Any air war, more so one in the context of the sub-continent, would involve an entire array of aerial operations ranging from counter air to counter-surface force, air defence, strategic, air transport, maritime and an entire panoply of combat support air campaigns. So, it is naïve to contemplate a future air war based on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict or the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war.

The drone in question, the Bayraktar, is a Turkish-made platform which has had some (media-hyped) kill successes against armoured vehicles recently. Capable of carrying four laser-guided Hellfire-class of air-to-ground missiles a la the acclaimed Predator/Reaper variety of American drones, the Bayraktar has an operating range of around 300 km, speed around 200 kmph and an operational ceiling of around 27,000 ft. Though statedly not GPS-dependent for navigation to its target, it still has a communication link for ground-controlled manoeuvring, which would be susceptible to electronic interference and other electronic combat. Though parameters such as radar cross-section are as yet perhaps unknown, the Bayraktar does not appear to be a stealth drone by any standard and could thus be intercepted by a conventional subsonic fighter and trainer-type aircraft. Besides of course, advanced stand-off missiles on Rafale, Mirage or MiG-29 class of interceptors and the newly inducted S-400 systems could pick them off the skies like flies. The relative cost factor of the drone and the countering platform or missiles would be important considerations for the operational planner. The intention here is not to tell our eminently capable air force its job, but to indicate to some of our newsmongers the nuances of air power employment. Be that as it may, it is a given that unmanned technology would increasingly show itself in the battle space in all domains of aerial, sea and surface warfare. Counters would also evolve all right, as drone capabilities reach even more advanced UCAV (Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle) levels. Recently, a drone in the USA is reported to have even launched an air-to-air missile. So that is where we stand in terms of the technology itself in today’s and tomorrow’s context. Suffice to state that a balanced air force as the IAF would more than be able to pull off a successful air campaign against any adversary, once other intangibles such as realistic training and innovative mindset are in place.

India’s own offensive drone capabilities are known to be developing well under agencies such as Mahindra Aviation enterprise and along with technology coming in from the USA (such as the IN Predators), we should be in a good space soon enough. Living in a dangerous neighbourhood as we do, the priority has to be to ensure that our defence spending is ample enough to provide all round tri-service military wherewithal and any adversarial move by awkward neighbours could be countered in a befitting manner. Let us not forget that the Bayraktar drone company’s co-owner is President Erdogan’s son-in-law and hence the possible hype surrounding their alleged out-of-proportion battle-worthiness. Military technology would keep evolving and reciprocal counters would evolve too but in the business of war fighting, doctrines and training are the real key areas to focus on if success is to be ensured. One small drone is not going to change the military equation between India and her adversaries. But yes, factor in we must the practicality of the emerging threat and have in hand counter measures as any professional arm would do. And as for media hypes about overstated capabilities, there is no cause to fret over it more than what is realistically called for. China too would be looking at employing drones against India; over time, developing even more capable drones to operate across the Himalayan terrains in the north perhaps. Employability at higher altitudes or mountainous valleys could be suspect for most of these drones, which do not have the altitude and weaponry combination of most UAVs such as the Global Hawk class. But once again, the counter would be found in a credible air defence posture comprising sensors, weapons and training, such that we do not get surprised. The advent of private players into the modern battlefield, such as Musk’s “Star Link” over Ukraine and other commercial imaging corporate entities such as Maxar, European Space Imaging and Galileo would also be factors shaping the battlefield in any future war across the globe.