Defections and alliances redrawing Maharashtra’s political landscape

As Maharashtra approaches its pivotal 2024 Assembly elections, strategic defections and alliance shifts are redrawing the state’s political landscape. In the ruling Mahayuti coalition — comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction — cross-coalition defections underscore the fluidity of loyalties as leaders aim to secure viable seats. In parallel, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) — that included the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction — is seeing similar shifts as leaders navigate a rapidly evolving political terrain.

The intensity of Maharashtra's defection culture is unprecedented, marked by vertical splits within the NCP and Shiv Sena. The NCP’s split in July 2023, with Ajit Pawar and eight MLAs joining the Mahayuti government, followed the 2022 Shiv Sena divide, where Eknath Shinde led a rebellion against Uddhav Thackeray. These major fractures set off a series of smaller defections that have woven a complex web of shifting alliances. For instance, three of Ajit Pawar's legislators recently rejoined Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Likewise, the BJP saw leaders such as Rajan Teli and Deepak Salunkhe defect to Shiv Sena (UBT). This dynamic of party-hopping reflects the pragmatism adopted by many politicians, emphasising electoral viability over ideological constancy and is reshaping Maharashtra’s coalition politics.

Power dynamics: Defections and strategic alignments within alliances

Within the Mahayuti coalition, notable defections reveal a strategic recalibration of power. Beyond high-profile shifts, like BJP leader Shaina NC’s move to Shinde’s Shiv Sena, additional defections within the BJP signal broader strategic realignments. Leaders such as Sanjaykaka Patil and Prataprao Patil Chikhalikar defected to Ajit Pawar's NCP faction, with the intent to strengthen their influence in areas where the BJP faces resistance. Ajit Pawar's NCP faction has been positioning itself in western Maharashtra to increase influence, capitalising on defections to bolster its chances in areas where the BJP’s appeal has struggled to take root.

Nilesh Rane’s switch from the BJP to Shinde’s faction of Shiv Sena is a key move aimed at securing the Kudal-Sawantwadi seat, directly challenging Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. This contest not only pits him against sitting MLA Vaibhav Naik, but adds new layers to the rivalry between the two Shiv Sena factions. These manoeuvres represent strategic plays for electoral control within the Mahayuti, revealing underlying tension and competition among allies.

In the MVA, defections similarly underscore efforts to recalibrate influence. The transition of Fahad Ahmad from the Samajwadi Party (SP) to Sharad Pawar’s NCP highlights this trend. Ahmad’s move is significant, particularly in minority constituencies where the SP has historically struggled, reflecting a broader trend of shifting alliances among minority leaders. Additionally, Congress leaders Umar and Kamaal Farooqui’s defection from the NCP back to the Congress illustrates efforts to restore unity within the MVA amid defection pressures. The Farooqui brothers’ move is an attempt to reintegrate potential rebels, aiming to consolidate the Congress support and reduce internal dissent ahead of the elections.

Negotiating ideological and identity politics within alliances

Despite its alignment with the BJP, Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction has adopted what it calls a stance of “practical secularism,” aiming to balance economic development with communal harmony. This nuanced approach is intended to retain support from traditional minority voters without alienating the BJP allies. This strategy has attracted figures like Zeeshan Siddiqui, who left the Congress for Ajit Pawar’s camp. Ajit Pawar’s choice to give tickets to Nawab Malik and his daughter, Sana Malik, has furthered this appeal, despite creating friction with the BJP within the Mahayuti coalition, revealing the challenges of balancing ideological nuance with electoral pragmatism.

For the Congress, the emphasis on maintaining its secular ethos is central, particularly as it seeks to retain minority support. Integrating leaders like Umar and Kamaal Farooqui, who have taken on roles to manage internal Congress dissent, is key to reassuring voters of its commitment to secularism. The Congress' approach represents a bid to protect its traditional support base while managing defections and internal differences within the MVA alliance.

Within the Shiv Sena, ideological divergence further complicates voter decision-making. Uddhav Thackeray’s faction upholds Bal Thackeray’s legacy of Maratha pride and regional identity while adopting a more moderate stance on secularism. Conversely, Shinde’s Shiv Sena, in alignment with the BJP, has downplayed regional identity to focus on alliance unity. These differing approaches pose a choice for voters, who must weigh their support for regional pride against the practicalities of coalition stability.

Accountability and governance: navigating a new political reality

The steady flow of defections raises critical questions about governance and democratic accountability. As politicians defect in pursuit of greater electoral leverage, there is a risk of compromising policy consistency and governance stability, particularly if representatives switch allegiances mid-term. Such volatility has the potential to foster voter disillusionment, though it might also prompt an increased emphasis on issue-based voting as traditional party loyalties become less reliable in Maharashtra’s shifting political landscape.

The Mahayuti coalition faces the challenge of maintaining unity amid these defections. Newly aligned leaders seeking influence in territories previously dominated by other coalition members necessitate careful negotiation to avoid destabilising the alliance. Balancing power within the coalition’s factions requires delicate manoeuvring to ensure that the Mahayuti alliance remains cohesive and capable of contesting the upcoming elections without fracturing under the weight of shifting allegiances.

The MVA coalition similarly struggles with internal disagreements over seat-sharing, particularly in key constituencies such as Miraj and Pandharpur. The Congress’ attempts to reintegrate dissident leaders through initiatives like the Farooqui brothers’ involvement illustrate the coalition’s effort to present a unified front despite underlying rifts. Successfully managing these challenges will be vital for the MVA in providing a credible alternative to the ruling coalition in Maharashtra’s complex political environment.

The future of Maharashtra’s coalition politics

The 2024 Maharashtra elections represent a watershed moment in the state’s political evolution, with defections and alliance shifts already transforming the electoral narrative. These defections, while significant for individual political careers, suggest broader shifts in ideology and approach, as leaders navigate coalition politics in an environment where pragmatism increasingly supersedes ideological allegiance.

The success of both the Mahayuti and the MVA coalitions will hinge on their ability to manage defections, align divergent interests, and present cohesive electoral platforms. Whether Maharashtra’s new political fluidity proves sustainable will likely shape the future of coalition politics in India, raising important questions about the role of party loyalty, governance stability, and democratic accountability in the shifting landscape of Indian democracy. Maharashtra’s political alliances must demonstrate their adaptability and unity to effectively engage with an electorate increasingly attuned to the practicalities of coalition politics.

• The writer, a London-based columnist, is a South Asia analyst