Congress keen to snap at BJP’s heels in UP, Gujarat
IN a slow and steady manner, Rahul Gandhi is putting in place a game plan of sorts for the revival of the Congress and a strategy for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It is, however, jarring that Rahul seems in no hurry to settle the Congress leadership issue.
Like a chess player, Rahul is trying to match the BJP strategy square by square. If the Narendra Modi-led BJP is betting on caste aspirations, Rahul sprang a surprise by appointing a Scheduled Caste leader as the CM in Punjab. The media narrative of a potential post-poll tussle between Punjab Congress unit chief Navjot Singh Sidhu and Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is not only highly speculative but also misses the vital point of an incumbent Congress government returning to power. Also, the political dividends of empowering leaders from socially weaker sections outside Punjab — Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh — are sought to be underplayed. Most psephologists feel the Congress’ move to appoint an SC chief minister has a pan-India appeal.
However, the manner in which Rahul and Modi recently replaced chief ministers in Punjab and Gujarat, respectively, has raised several issues about how parliamentary democracy is practised. While it is true that during the rule of Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, chief ministers were often toppled and changed without consulting the ruling party’s MLAs, Modi and Rahul avoided making even a pretence of it. Events in Gandhinagar were not only unfair to Nitin Patel but also to 22 others who had been elected twice, thrice or four times to the Gujarat Assembly to make a legitimate claim to ministerial berths. Theoretically speaking, why should voters be re-electing their MLAs if they cannot make it to the council of ministers?
In Punjab, the proceedings were more haphazard. In August, Sidhu had repeatedly flaunted the support of 60-odd Congress MLAs when Capt Amarinder Singh was the CM. But less than a month later, Sidhu’s show of strength was nowhere to be acknowledged. The Congress central observers and party leadership struggled to find Capt Amarinder’s successor as the outgoing chief minister had a singular demand of denying Sidhu the top post.
Caste as a crucial factor in politics is nothing new. But when a popular prime minister looks for caste-based consolidation in his home state, it makes a telling commentary on the tall talk of development, ideology and organisational effectiveness. Gujarat is seen as Modi’s turf, an RSS laboratory which lacks an effective Opposition. Therefore, the prospects of Modi opting for a weak and pliable chief minister in other BJP-ruled states are bleak because of caste considerations. Take Madhya Pradesh, for instance, where three-time CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is at the helm of affairs. Hailing from the OBC (other backward classes) community, Chouhan has remained a low-key, performing chief minister. There are a number of BJP leaders eyeing Chouhan’s chair, but invariably most contenders — Narottam Mishra, VD Sharma, Rakesh Singh, Narendra Singh Tomar and Kailash Vijayvargiya — hail from the upper castes of Brahmin-Rajput-Bania castes.
In Rahul’s assessment, all is not well for the BJP in Gujarat. The former Congress president who is the de facto head of the party wishes to play a high-stakes, winner-takes-all game in Modi-Shah’s home state. The rationale is that once the BJP is humbled in Gujarat, it would signal its downfall across the country. Behind the scenes, Rahul and his core team are eyeing the young voters. Hardik Patel, working president of Gujarat Congress, is a key figure, while Independent MLA Jignesh Mevani is set to join the Congress along with Kanhaiya Kumar, a firebrand student leader. Rahul, party insiders say, continues to be unabashed about promoting left-of-centre leaders and ideology, an uncomfortable turf for the old guard, the G-23 dissenters, and others in the grand old party.
Rahul’s strategy for Gujarat has a possible solution to the impasse in Rajasthan, where CM Ashok Gehlot is at loggerheads with Sachin Pilot. Recently, Rahul had a long meeting with Pilot, though much of the conversation focused on Gujarat rather than Rajasthan. Apparently, Rahul has promised to address Pilot’s demands in Rajasthan, such as an expansion of the Gehlot cabinet (to accommodate Pilot’s supporters), if Pilot takes charge of the party for the Gujarat polls. The post of AICC general secretary in charge of Gujarat has been lying vacant since the death of Rajiv Satav in May 2021. Rahul is also keen to resolve the ongoing tussle between Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and state Health Minister TS Singhdeo. Baghel belongs to the OBC caste, a factor which is perhaps helping him cling on the CM’s chair.
In Rahul’s scheme of things, winning Punjab and Uttarakhand is top priority. In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress plans to focus on 100-odd seats (out of 403) and somehow deny Yogi Adityanath a chance to retain power. This may appear to be a mirage as of now, but Congress leaders are counting on the Akhilesh Yadav-Jayant Chaudhury combine in western UP. The Congress is unlikely to have any alliance, but could work on a tacit understanding with the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Lok Dal and a few smaller parties.
Overall, the Congress strategy is to somehow tame the BJP in Uttar Pradesh or Gujarat or both, accentuate the caste factor, and keep raising issues that hurt Modi the most. The Congress organisational revamp can wait till the end of the Gujarat polls, when a formal, full five-year term of the 88th president of the AICC will be up for grabs.
