Chinese challenge bringing India, US closer
Instead of the placid affair of the past, the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting held in New Delhi recently was an important event marked by growing convergence among its four members. India agreed for the first time for the inclusion of a separate paragraph on the Ukraine war in the joint statement which, without naming Russia, conveyed disapproval of its actions by support to “respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity of states, inadmissibility of the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons and peaceful resolution of disputes”.
In a sharp rebuke to China, they expressed concern at “attempts to politicise the working of the UN Sanctions Regimes” (reference to China’s interventions to shield Pakistan-based terrorists like Sajid Mir, Abdul Rehman Makki, Abdul Rauf Asghar and others from being sanctioned by the Security Council). It was decided to establish a new working group to counter new and emerging forms of terrorism and violent extremism. This was of interest to India, given its long struggle to drum up international support against terrorists and their backers.
With a view to countering China’s growing influence in the region, the Quad agreed to ‘strengthen maritime cooperation with the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) to address most pressing and important challenges’ and ‘welcomed India’s leadership in finalising the IORA’s outlook on the Indo-Pacific’. The ministers resolved to pursue ‘active and constructive engagement in the inter-governmental negotiation process on the Security Council reforms to make the latter more effective, representative and credible’. The latter is of interest to the wider membership of the UN, including India, Japan and others who deserve a permanent seat in the expanded Security Council.
The sharp progress at the meeting was facilitated by the momentum gathered by India’s relations with the US, underpinned by the growing convergence in their views, shared interests and strategic needs. The Joe Biden administration is of the view that closer ties with India are important for the prosperity and security of the US. President Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met 15 times and forged a good personal relationship. PM Modi is expected to pay a bilateral visit to the US this summer; Biden will attend the G20 summit in India in September. Biden called to thank PM Modi on February 14 for the purchase of more than 200 American aircraft by Air India, saying that it would create more than one million jobs for Americans.
Biden’s key adviser on the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell said, during an address at the Centre for Strategic and Independent Studies in Washington on January 14, “Our interests are to see India playing an ever-larger responsible role in almost everything we are doing.” He spoke of more high-level visits to India and Asia this year. Instead of a hub-and-spoke model of cooperation (wherein bilateral agreements were sought from the allies with the US at the centre), the focus now is on ‘forming a network of partnerships among them’ to build their domestic resilience, he said.
The US wants to pull fastest-growing India with a big market to its side to reduce the adverse impact of the Ukraine war on the global economy and deepen its policy of ‘friend-shoring’ the supply chains away from undependable China. It is felt to be necessary as Beijing is using its trade surpluses for rapid military modernisation and threaten its weaker neighbours, many of whom are America’s allies and partners. India has emerged as a good candidate for friend-shoring with its rapid economic growth, its pro-reform leadership, reservoir of able technical personnel and increasing consumption.
Apple, the iPhone maker, has decided to shift 25 per cent of its mobile phone manufacturing from China to India by 2025. It has already exported mobile phones worth $1 billion from India in December 2022. Another American company, First Solar, is setting up a $648-million plant to build a 3.3-gigawatt fully vertically integrated solar module facility in Tamil Nadu to reduce global dependence on China and assist India’s green energy transition.
The visit of India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to Washington in January-end along with heads of key science and technology organisations was a game-changer as the two countries agreed to collaborate on the joint development of jet engines with assistance from General Electric. This will enable India to manufacture a new-generation fighter aircraft in large numbers to counter China, which is producing a range of fighter, strike, stealth, bomber and transport aircraft itself.
The two countries also agreed to expand research and collaboration in artificial intelligence, quantum technology, advanced wireless communication, semiconductors, space and 6G technology. These technologies are critical for modernisation of the Indian armed forces at a level comparable to that of China, which is building a world-class military force in a few years. The US supported India with the supply of critical defence items and intelligence inputs about the activities of Chinese troops near the borders with India in June 2020 and December 2022.
India’s ties with Russia are also less of an irritant, now that New Delhi is buying oil from Moscow at a price less than the $60 cap fixed by the US and India’s arms purchases are exhibiting a downward trend. Washington would have noticed that Modi did not visit Russia in 2022 for his annual summit with President Vladimir Putin due to ‘scheduling reasons’. India has not shown any interest in holding meetings of the Russia-China-India group till China normalises the situation on its borders with India.
The recent visits of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Prime Ministers Giorgia Meloni (Italy), Anthony Albanese (Australia) and Fumio Kishida (Japan) indicate that India’s ties with the US and its allies are in rapid ascent. These countries can play an important role in strengthening India’s economic, technological and military capacities to meet the emerging challenges to its security.
