China-Pak roadblock looms large
WHILE there are critics of India’s economic policies, it is now internationally recognised that the country’s growth rate increased rapidly with the advent of economic liberalisation and the end of what was known as the ‘Licence, Permit, Quota Raj’. The principal architect of these reforms was Manmohan Singh, who served as the Finance Minister and later became the Prime Minister. India is now the fastest-growing major economy in the world.
India must be prepared to inflict sharp retribution, should Pakistan continue to sponsor terrorism.
Even as India moves to attain higher rates of growth, it must be borne in mind that its position and influence in the world will be determined largely by its economic and technological progress. Given these imperatives, India has no choice but to strengthen its ties in its immediate neighbourhood to ensure security and peace in the area extending from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf to its West to the Straits of Malacca to its East. The main challenges India faces beyond its borders arise from the expansionist ambitions and policies of China.
India has also for long sought to develop closer ties with the oil-rich Gulf region, comprising Iran and the Arab states, where around six million Indians live. India has built good ties with Saudi Arabia, while simultaneously reinforcing its already strong relationship with the UAE. India also played an important role in restoring a cordial working relationship between the US and Saudi Arabia after intemperate comments made by President Biden about the Saudi monarchy were deeply resented by the Saudis. The UAE’s National Security Adviser (NSA), Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also participated in talks between his US counterpart Jake Sullivan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The talks were facilitated by India’s NSA Ajit Doval. An agreement for promoting cooperation between the UAE, US and India was also finalised and signed shortly thereafter. The stage is set for India to play an increasingly positive and cooperative role across the western shores of the Indian Ocean, together with Gulf nations.
India-US relations have grown significantly after Washington decided that Delhi can and will endeavour to balance the growth of Chinese power across its Indian Ocean neighbourhood. Despite pretensions of friendship, China’s policies remain committed to limiting and containing Indian influence. China continues to strengthen Pakistan’s missile and nuclear weapons’ capabilities. It also works in close collaboration with Pakistan along and across India’s western borders with Afghanistan. New Delhi’s recent moves for strengthening ties with Iran, including the construction of the strategic Chabahar port, give it increasing economic and maritime access to Central Asia and limit space for Pakistan to hinder India’s access to Afghanistan.
While the US had objected to India’s growing ties with Iran, it now appears reconciled to Delhi going ahead with the project for a transport corridor linking India to Afghanistan and Iran. Predictably, Pakistan is not pleased with this transportation corridor, as it prevents Rawalpindi from hindering India’s access to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia. This corridor, therefore, becomes a key gateway for India’s access to the International North-South Transport Corridor, which, in turn, would go on to link India to Central Asia and Russia, and ultimately to Europe by sea, rail and road.
One important factor that has cast a shadow on India-US relations is the constant criticism of the alleged curtailment of the freedom of speech in India by the US media. There is a widespread feeling that this media flak enjoys the support of the Biden administration. There is also a feeling that such criticism may be muted should Donald Trump, who has been friendly to India, emerge victorious in the presidential elections later this year. India may be among the few countries whose leadership and people found Trump friendly and blunt during his visit to India. Trump has no illusions or expectations about China and has little inclination to even think about Pakistan.
Unlike the Biden administration’s practice, then President Trump delivered no sermons about democracy in India. Nevertheless, relations with the US have grown steadily, with considerable cooperation for strengthening maritime links. This has been an important development amid the tensions and piracy in the high seas across the Indian Ocean that have accompanied the Israeli occupation of Gaza. The US continues to regard India as an important strategic partner in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region, extending from the Straits of Hormuz and Malacca to the Gulf.
India’s problems and tensions on its borders with China and Pakistan are set to continue. Despite being virtually bankrupt, Pakistan appears determined to continue fomenting terrorism in India. The Sharif brothers and their government have led Pakistan to bankruptcy, even as army chief Gen Syed Asim Munir wields substantial influence on national security policies. Unlike his mentor and predecessor Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who understood the economic and diplomatic costs of tensions with India, Gen Munir appears bent on fostering terrorism in India, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. India needs to respond both diplomatically and militarily.
While the Sharif brothers run Pakistan’s civilian and political establishments, they have little control over military-sponsored terrorism, which is prevailing in J&K and elsewhere along Pakistan’s borders with India. Moreover, India needs to keep a close eye on Gen Munir’s moves. Pakistan now has its hands full in dealing with continuing tensions on its borders with Afghanistan and Iran. Both India and Iran, meanwhile, have a constructive relationship with Kabul, with Delhi primarily focusing on economic cooperation. Nevertheless, it is important to have a ‘back channel’ open for communication with Pakistan. At the same time, India must be prepared to inflict sharp retribution, should Pakistan continue to sponsor terrorism on Indian soil.
