China lurking, India walks tightrope on Myanmar
Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses
Myanmar has been gripped by instability after the February 2021 coup which removed the Aung San Suu Kyi-controlled government from power. This coup in its wake brought western sanctions on Myanmar with the hope that it will put pressure on the military junta to restore democracy. The coup has also posed a challenge before the biggest democracy in the region, India, to devise its own policy towards the crisis in Myanmar. The recent visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla to Myanmar was aimed at constructively engaging the country that shares its borders with the Northeast and where vital Indian interests are involved.
India would prefer that democracy is restored in Myanmar and the country moves towards a more federal structure based on its Constitution. New Delhi expressed its unhappiness when ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi was found guilty by a court of charges of incitement and breaching of Covid-19 restrictions. India criticised the verdict and saw it as undermining the rule of law and democratic process. Still, it was careful not to be too critical of Myanmar’s military rulers fearing that it might drive the country closer to China.
To restore democracy in Myanmar, Shringla, during his visit, urged the military leadership in the country to hold elections. The military junta in Myanmar has indicated that they might hold elections in 2023 and they are considering introducing proportional representation along with direct elections. India has, however, suggested that Myanmar should opt for a system that is politically more acceptable to its people. India also urged the Myanmar authorities to release political prisoners. Shringla had a meeting with the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) to indicate that India considers the opposition party an important stakeholder.
However, India can’t adopt the western policy of imposing sanctions on the military junta in Myanmar. India shares a 1,700-km-long border with Myanmar in its north-eastern part. This region has been plagued by insurgency and in the past, several north-eastern insurgent groups have operated from Myanmar territory, with or without the support of the Myanmar authorities. In the last few years, due to better understanding between India and Myanmar, these insurgents have been on the backfoot. The cooperation of the Myanmar military has been crucial in improving the situation in the Northeast and bringing relative peace. However, even today, at least six insurgent groups active in India’s Northeast are believed to be operating from Myanmar and China has shown its inclination to use these to cause disturbance within India.
Myanmar also needs to be handled carefully for geopolitical reasons amid the unrest prevailing in the country. China has always been deeply entrenched in Myanmar. It has been a major supplier of weapons. Only a few days ago, it gave a submarine to the Myanmar navy at a ceremony in Yangon, presided over by coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. China is also engaged in infrastructure building as part of China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Besides, Myanmar has been sourcing fighter jets, jointly manufactured by China and Pakistan. Russia, another major player, has been contacted by the Myanmar authorities for supply of weapons. Russia is also looking for a port in this area, which can be used by its navy for logistic purposes. Clearly, complex geopolitical developments are taking place in this region and any fissures in the India-Myanmar relations would be used by forces hostile to India.
The pro-democracy protests in Myanmar unfortunately have caused another security issue for India. Due to the crackdown of military on the pro-democracy protestors, some of them have escaped to the Indian states of Mizoram and Manipur. The Indian policy in this regard is to persuade these protesters to go back to Myanmar. It is believed that a persistent Covid infection in Mizoram is due to the crossing over of these protesters. To deal with the situation, India has donated one million vaccines to Myanmar, most of which will be used to vaccinate border populations.
There is no doubt that a civil war-like situation in Myanmar is of great concern to India. If this situation worsens, the fighting might spill over to the bordering areas of the Indian side as well. The deterioration in situation might be used by China or Pakistan to revive a weakening insurgency in India’s Northeast. There are already reports of intensified arms smuggling in the area. Some of these arms could be easily transferred to the Northeast insurgents. At this stage, keeping the sensitivity of the situation in view, India can’t afford to take sides and the pragmatic policy of engaging with all stakeholders is the only option. The military junta in Myanmar seems to be going back to the old system that prevailed before 2011. However, if this leads to a serious decline in the situation, either within Myanmar or in the bordering areas of India and Myanmar, then there might be a need to revisit this policy.
