BJP wedged between two formidable fronts in Kerala
THE poll result in two of Kerala’s 20 Lok Sabha constituencies is a foregone conclusion. Candidates of the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) are set to win. It has always been so, barring an occasion or two when Marxist masterminds employed electoral legerdemain to wrest one relatively vulnerable seat. Otherwise, since India’s early election years, the Muslim monolith has reigned supreme in Malappuram and the adjoining constituency of Ponnani. M Muhammad Ismail had won the Malappuram (Manjeri) seat thrice in a row (1962, 1967 and 1971).
The Muslim League of Malappuram, so to speak, is different from its pan-India predecessor before Independence. When Jawaharlal Nehru was asked about it, he quipped: “It is a dead horse”. Nehru’s daughter, Indira Gandhi, when she became the Congress president, explored the possibilities of an alliance with it, clandestine or otherwise. That threw up an alliterative slogan: “Dead horse to dad, war horse to daughter”.
And so it remains. Right now, it is a constituent of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF). Who knows with whom it would not cohabit through periodic polls, except, of course, the BJP? It would certainly be a day of redemption for both the provincial green league and the saffron party promising Modi’s guarantees. The rival CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is trying every trick to weaken the bond between the league and the UDF, right now or whenever possible. Both combinations are stoking the embers of minority misgivings. While the LDF accuses the Congress of being in cahoots with the BJP, the grand old party accuses the former of having a secret deal with the saffron party. The BJP cannot brazenly address minority and majority grumblings all at once.
In contrast to the certainty of victory of two league candidates is the unlikely prospect of the BJP opening its account in what has been described as the ‘Red Riddle of India’ and the ‘Yenan of India’. The Hindu card has been played none too triumphantly. It was only in the 2016 Assembly elections that the BJP had managed to win a seat in Kerala (it drew a blank in the 2021 polls). Since the days of the legendary TN Bharathan, a scion of the Nilambur dynasty who used to fight every poll only to lose as a lamp-holding candidate (of the erstwhile Jana Sangh), there has been little progress in electoral terms. In the early 1980s, a Hindu Front candidate won a breathtakingly large number of votes. Then began the efforts of the BJP’s top brass to plant the lotus in the state and make it blossom in good time.
The current campaign marks a prestige point. The ancient slogan, “You have tried all else many a time, try us this time”, is not voiced with the same old verve, but it is a no-holds-barred push to change voting habits and traditions in the region. It is carrying the crusade right into the Congress-Communist den.
But the BJP’s relatively young state chief, K Surendran, may not be able to rattle the best ‘batsman’ of the Congress, Rahul Gandhi, in the hill constituency of Wayanad. Rahul fought and won the Adivasi terrain last time, giving his partymen a shot of hope and camaraderie at the same time. Nor can the CPI’s Annie Raja make any dent in the hills, except leaving it for record that she also fought the maverick Gandhi.
Thespian and action hero of yesteryear, Suresh Gopi, and Minister of State for Electronics and Information Technology Rajeev Chandrasekhar have been fielded by the saffron set-up with great hope. Shashi Tharoor has been an eminent presence in the state capital for the past 10 years, not one to be easily dislodged by Chandrasekhar.
The Congress has much to be concerned about. One worry is the usual intra-party discord, worsened by the shortage of campaign funds. Also, there is a growing sense of ambivalence and fear of erosion of its mass base. Even Tharoor is not free from this fear. The worst hit was Congress stalwart AK Antony, whose son Anil Antony was named a BJP candidate, with PM Narendra Modi flying down to welcome him into the party fold. AK Antony has clearly been humbled and silenced.
The Congress is accusing the Marxists of having unholy relations with extremist elements that even the IUML dreads. All that makes a brittle bundle of allegations, denials and counter-allegations. So, where lies the truth?
Kerala is a conundrum. What may look like a trifle may prompt threadbare discussions in political parlours and media forums. Kerala may be a tiny state with a small contingent to represent it in Parliament, but the dissection of every issue is thorough and exacting. Its fourth estate will see everyone and every turn of events with its own eyes.
When William Blake coined his inclusive aphorism about seeing the world in a grain of sand and eternity in an hour, he was prescribing a model view of Kerala. Do not forget that decades before Blake, there was Kerala’s humorist and satirist, Kunchan Nambiar, who talked about hell, heaven and everything with a Malayali mischief.
