BJP taking nothing for granted
PRE-POLL jitters or pre-planned manoeuvring: the BJP’s Haryana unit president Nayab Singh Saini becoming Chief Minister on Tuesday had all the makings of a swift and decisive course correction. Unlike the Congress and many other Opposition parties, the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party conduct weekly surveys to understand the mood of the people in various constituencies and states as a whole. These surveys help them choose candidates, address grievances and constantly monitor their performance.
BJP strategists are roping in Rashtriya Lok Dal and Lok Janshakti Party because for the saffron party it is all about state-level dynamics and not a one-size-fits-all national campaign.
This survey-based problem-solving approach leads to an effective opinion-making process. Manohar Lal Khattar’s resignation and Saini’s elevation are the latest examples of attempts at poll-eve perception management. This time around, it is about addressing anti-incumbency of nine years and four months — a pretty long time for any CM or government. But at the same time, this change is not merely for the sake of change. Saini is Khattar’s protégé and when he does an exhibition of obsequious loyalty by touching his guru’s feet, it wipes off all traces of admission of anti-incumbency.
More importantly, the 54-year-old Kurukshetra MP’s ascension is a mark of acknowledgement of the need for social engineering to retain the party’s sway over Haryana. Obviously, there was no chance of a repeat performance of 10/10 seats in the state with increasing anti-incumbency or voter fatigue. But unlike Karnataka, where the BJP battled serious allegations of corruption, Khattar’s government did not invite vile accusations of a similar nature. So, the attempt is to bolster the party by bringing in a fresh, clean, non-Jat face, and that too from the Other Backward Classes (OBC). That is a changing of the guard, redressing of anti-incumbency, bringing in a fresh face and an attempt at social engineering, all rolled into one change of CM.
Haryana’s politics has always revolved around Jat and non-Jat assertion. Khattar, by running the Haryana Government for nearly a decade, had become the most potent symbol of non-Jat claims to political leadership. However, the choice of Saini goes one step further ahead — he is a non-Jat and an OBC, with his Punjabi predecessor respectfully retaining primacy in state politics. For, the party leadership has completely ignored the claims of Khattar’s No. 2 in the cabinet, Home Minister Anil Vij, while picking Saini — clearly indicating the role that Khattar has in PM Modi’s scheme of things. Now, as far as political messaging goes, the BJP has also created another OBC icon as an antidote to Rahul Gandhi’s new-found love for caste politics.
The bigger message from Haryana is not about the Sangh Parivar bolstering its pro-OBC image with one more CM from this category, but the fact that the party is not taking anything for granted. All the talk of winning 370 seats is just that — empty talk. In real terms, the party is tweaking its tactics at every turn during the election campaign. The BJP is not contesting the elections, contrary to its own projection and the dominant opinion, simply on Modi’s charisma. This last-minute change of CM in Haryana proves once again that Indian elections cannot ever be a presidential-style poll, depending solely on one person’s popularity. These are, if not 543, at least a few hundred simultaneous elections — each contested separately on local issues.
The best example of this fact is the 1977 elections, which Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and her extra-constitutional authority son lost. The Congress did not win a single seat in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Haryana or HP. It swept Andhra Pradesh with 41/42, Karnataka 26/28, and 20/20 with its allies in Kerala. So, the north-south divide always existed, or rather, a graver divide exists between one state and another. The Indian General Election is fought primarily in states and then in constituencies and the campaign led by an incumbent PM is never the pan-India juggernaut that it is assumed to be. The voters of Amethi and Rae Bareli cannot be ascribed greater democratic instincts, better informed choices or a grander political vision than those in Bengaluru and Mysuru, neither in 1977 nor in 2024.
Despite all the bravado about Abki Baar 400 Paar (at least 370 seats for the ruling party and 30 for its allies), BJP strategists are roping in Rashtriya Lok Dal, offering this predominantly Jat party two seats in western UP and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party five seats in Bihar simply because for the saffron party it is all about state-level dynamics and not a one-size-fits-all national campaign. Modi ki guarantee is only the icing on the cake, but the batter is all made of local chieftains, aspirations, caste empowerment and the anger against the incumbent state government. The national leader’s image cannot obviously override local anger.
For instance, more than national issues like the correlation between buyers of electoral bonds and the coercive action against them by investigating agencies preceding the purchase, local issues like the FIR against former CM BS Yediyurappa in a POCSO case could impact the mood of the voters in Karnataka. Local issues matter the most. There are instances where the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister added to each other’s negative image, as in the 1977 polls. But in a largely anger-neutral electoral context, one of the two governments — Central or state — can tilt the balance in its favour. So, the BJP’s attempt is to contain the anger against the state government as much as possible while unleashing a positive campaign beating the Centre’s drum.
Such machinations have been employed in almost every constituency, with the BJP striking seat-sharing pacts even in heartland states. On the contrary, the Congress is banking on Rahul’s image-building yatra when it hardly has any time to read the surveys, choose the candidates and run the local campaign. Contrast Khattar’s removal with that of Capt Amarinder Singh in the neighbouring state of Punjab in 2021. Captain was humiliated, Charanjit Singh Channi was brought in, and then Navjot Singh Sidhu was unleashed to savage Channi and the Congress government. Well, this difference in conduct defines the outcomes.
