Biden out, but Trump may still win
US President Joe Biden announced on July 21 that he was dropping out of the presidential elections due in November. After his poor showing in the one-to-one TV debate with Donald Trump on June 27, there had been a rising crescendo of influential voices in the Democratic Party calling upon Biden to stand down as a candidate and allow a younger nominee to face Trump, the Republican candidate, in the elections. It has taken a precious three weeks since the debate for Biden to yield to pressure from within his party to finally stand down. There will be limited time available for party managers to home in on a credible candidate for endorsement at the Democratic Party convention scheduled to start on August 19. Although Biden has endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris as the candidate he supports and has urged the party to rally behind her, there are indications that key figures like former President Barack Obama and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may prefer another candidate. Any contestation at this late stage can only diminish any raised hopes which may have been generated by Biden’s announcement.
Trump’s close brush with death is likely to galvanise his supporters to come out in large numbers to vote for him.
Assuming Harris does get the party’s endorsement at the party convention next month, how do her chances stack up against Trump?
Harris has both Black and Asian credentials and should be able to mobilise the non-White constituency. She is a strong champion of women’s rights and has been vocal in opposing anti-abortion laws. As a potential first woman President of the US, she may appeal to the large female constituency across the racial divide. She has taken a strong position on the Gaza war, calling for an immediate ceasefire, which contrasts with Biden’s continuing though reluctant support to Israel. This may be a nuanced difference with her boss but may make her more congenial to the pro-Palestinian Arab-Americans and a large section of the US youth. While these may be her assets, the downside would be the very limited time she has to mobilise support for her candidacy within the party in the less than four weeks available to her. She cannot afford to have a contested candidacy at the party convention. A quick and consensus endorsement by the party immediately in advance of the convention will free her to concentrate on campaigning against Trump rather than her possible contenders within the party. Even if she wins a contested candidacy at the party convention, legitimacy as a presidential contender will be contrasted with the overwhelming endorsement Trump has already received as the Republican nominee. And Trump would already have a head start in the campaign much before Harris gets her act together. Campaign finance may also be an issue. Some large contributors to the Democratic Party had held back on their contributions after Biden’s poor showing at the June debate with Trump. Will they open their purse strings for Harris? There are many doubts on this score. Trump has no problem at all on the finance front. Taking all these factors into account, Biden stepping down and Harris being inducted into the race at this late stage is unlikely to improve the Democrats’ chances significantly.
If not Harris, who? None of the possible contenders has the name recognition that Harris has and would have even less time to pose a serious and credible challenge to Trump. The best bet for the party is Harris, but a lack of a broad consensus over her candidature will diminish any positive outcome from Biden’s exit from the race.
Trump has a solid base of support, perhaps as much as 40 per cent of the voting population. The assassination attempt against him has given him the benefit of the inevitable sympathy factor. But more than that, his close brush with death is likely to galvanise his supporters to come out in large numbers to vote for him. There is no comparable galvanising factor on the Democratic side. Enthusiasm among Democratic supporters may be of a lesser order. At this stage of the political game, therefore, Trump appears to have a head start over any Democratic rival.
It is likely that Trump will heighten US contention with China, and not only on the trade issue. He has said that he will end the Ukraine war but not how. The large financial and military support the US has extended to Ukraine might be more easily suspended or significantly reduced. The European countries are unlikely to be able to make up for reduced US support. This may lead to Ukraine agreeing to a ceasefire along the existing battle-lines. This will be a plus for Russia though it is not expected that sanctions against Russia will be eased. A transactional Trump may seek a quid pro quo for that.
The worst affected, potentially, could be Europe. The pressure on European allies in NATO to do more for their own security will mount and tariffs against European products may increase. There may be less pressure on allies in the Indo-Pacific given the China factor.
It is not clear whether Trump will force an end to hostilities in the Gaza war as he intends to do with Ukraine. The support to Israel is unquestioned and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may feel encouraged to further escalate the war. But even Trump may not want to get embroiled in a wider regional war involving Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran. It would be interesting to see how Trump handles these contradictory aims in West Asia. His instinct would be to focus on the Indo-Pacific without distractions elsewhere. This should be welcome to India.
There should be reasonable confidence in the Modi government on navigating a Trump 2.0 presidency with the experience gained in its earlier incarnation. Relations with India have enjoyed bipartisan support in the US. This is likely to continue. For the Modi government, on balance, a Trump presidency may appear more congenial. The two leaders enjoyed good chemistry during the previous Trump administration. That would be an asset if Trump comes back. There may also be expectations of less US focus on human rights and minority issues. What may be more difficult to navigate is an even more fluid and disruptive international geopolitical terrain which Trump will inevitable foist on the world.
