Better vaccination rate can rein in coronavirus

Now that the country is clearly in the throes of a second wave of Covid-19 infection, it is critical to have a quick and correct focus for the public policy needed to fight back. It is important not to repeat unthinkingly what was done last year when India went in for the quickest, longest and most severe lockdown in the world. Right then, there was no knowledge on a successful response to the pandemic and the Indian lockdown was a kind of shot in the dark.

A clear sign that our leaders have learnt from the past is provided by the prescription Maharashtra’s former BJP chief minister Devendra Fadnavis has indicated. He has come out against a complete lockdown as an impractical option. Why? It will adversely affect the livelihood of the people, especially the poor. Instead, harsh restrictions need to be imposed and areas with surges monitored.

It is critical to remember that the lockdown of last March was in many ways counter-productive. It confined India’s urban poor to their homes where anything up to 10 people shared a room and had little access to water so as to ensure frequent handwashing. That was the easiest way for many of them to get infected. Then, after the migrant labour among them lost their jobs and their urban shack homes, they took to the highways to trudge back to their villages, sometimes halfway across the country, taking their infection along with them to their homes from whence they had come.

This migrant labour’s trudge back home has been described as the biggest migration since partition which was tragically counter-productive. Hence, the learning — don’t go for complete lockdowns, be selective in the preventive steps you take, but ensure that they are rigorously followed.

As the world has learnt a lot since early 2020, it is imperative to examine the policies and practices which have worked or failed across the world. The latest World Happiness Report (for 2021), which has the theme of the impact of Covid-19 on global happiness, looks at the successes in East Asia, Australia and New Zealand and notes that policies can be effective when citizens are compliant (East Asia) and more freedom-oriented (Australia and New Zealand). These policies centred around test, trace and isolate to contain community spread and travel bans to stop trans-border spread. People’s morale improved when governments acted and with better morale, compliance improved.

The success in Asia-Pacific in controlling infection did not come at the cost of economic growth (on the other hand, the Indian economy contracted hugely last year). The successful formula lay in decisive intervention (test, trace and quarantine) as well as personal hygiene (masks, handwashing).

The Asia-Pacific success in controlling infection is in sharp contrast to the failure in the North Atlantic. The success resulted from policies imposed top down by governments which were matched by bottom-up compliance of the people. The North Atlantic, on the other hand, is imbued with a more individualistic culture in which assertions of personal liberty and concern for privacy of personal information were paramount.

What can Inda learn from this and implement, given its existing political system? The Centre has to lay down policies and the states have to do most of the implementing. A lot swings on the administrative ability of individual states and the kind of political culture that prevails in it. It goes without saying that the administrative practices of Kerala have to be followed, instead of those of say Bihar.

Kerala took an early lead in controlling the infection, but thereafter suffered successive waves possibly because of rules of personal behaviour being excessively relaxed and thereby neglected. It has also had to continually grapple with trans-border infection carried by its armies of migrant workers returning home.

It is also necessary to examine why Maharashtra, blessed with strong administrative capabilities, is now in the grip of an intense second wave. Of all the reasons offered, the most convincing is that the state, with a professional work culture, went full tilt in getting back to work. Mumbai suburban trains became crowded and social distancing was at a discount. In contrast, lifting of restrictions on occupancy in suburban trains serving Kolkata experienced only around 50 per cent of earlier regular traffic.

Perhaps, most importantly, there is a need to re-examine the practice of leaving in the hands of the police the task of imposing mask wearing and social distancing rules in public places. The police have for the most part tried to achieve results by levying nominal fines. It is necessary for the state leaderships to take back this initiative and give the job to political workers. They have to implement the rules as a social movement, using a mixture of persuasion and firmness. Streets in urban centres should be full of young people wearing distinctive badges designed for the purpose, and if necessary, hectoring people to follow the rules. If this can be made into an all-party initiative, then nothing like it.

What we are looking at is an agenda for the next three months in order to curb the second wave. In that time frame, vaccination cannot be of much help. Only around 5 crore of India’s 130 crore people have been given one shot each so far. It takes around two months or a bit more after the first shot is taken for immunity to kick in and herd immunity cannot be expected unless at least 60 per cent of the population is vaccinated.

Extensive vaccination is hugely needed as a long-term goal so that from the second half of the year, the country can look forward to getting near to decisively beating the virus. But for that, the vaccination rate has to improve quickly. Here, the state governments have their work cut out.