Assembly polls ignite J&K’s hopes for restoration of statehood

THE three-phase Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), starting on September 18, are historic, being the first after the state became a Union Territory (UT).

The last Assembly elections were held in 2014 under entirely different political circumstances. As a UT, J&K has undergone significant changes since August 5, 2019. The Reorganisation Act, 2019, implemented following these changes, has resulted in new constituencies, based on the recommendations of the Delimitation Commission.

The UT is abuzz with political activity. Participants include traditional regional parties, some separatist organisations, and even individuals charged under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA).

Jamaat-e-Islami Jammu Kashmir, banned under Section 3(1) of UAPA, has fielded candidates in Kulgam, Pulwama and other areas of South Kashmir. Sugra Barkati, daughter of jailed separatist leader Sarjan Barkati who was the face of the 2016 protests in South Kashmir, had last week filed nomination on his behalf, which was rejected. Barkati may now contest from the Ganderbal Assembly seat in Central Kashmir. The brother of Afzal Guru, a convict in the Parliament attack case, may also contest.

Engineer Rashid brought noticeable changes to the politics of the Valley. There was already a strong sentiment in his favour, but it remains uncertain whether a similar sentiment will be seen again. If Rashid is released from jail, he might create an impact that could benefit his Awami Ittehad Party candidates. However, without him, the main contest seems to be between the Congress-National Conference (NC) alliance and the BJP, with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) following behind.

In this year’s parliamentary election, the Congress- NC alliance secured over 41 per cent of the votes, while the BJP received 24 per cent and the PDP 8 per cent. Whether the same pattern will be observed in the Assembly elections remains uncertain. In the parliamentary elections, people in Jammu had voted for the BJP in support of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, dissatisfaction was seen among party workers when they protested against the first list of candidates. The BJP had to withdraw the list and release a new one.

As political parties prepare for the elections, their manifestos continue to echo familiar promises. The NC has once again included autonomy as one of its key promises. However, despite an absolute majority in the past, the party could not fulfil this promise, even after passing a resolution in the Assembly in 2000.

Similarly, the PDP has also promised to pursue the restoration of J&K to its ‘original status’ and to establish full connectivity across the Line of Control for trade and social exchange. Both the NC and PDP have called for resuming talks with Pakistan.

The manifestos of the NC and the PDP are almost similar. However, Mehbooba Mufti has added the “resolution of the Kashmir issue” to the PDP’s manifesto promises. What this means and how she intends to achieve it remains unclear though. Engineer Rashid’s party has promised to prioritise “land security,” and address the “issue of prisoners in various jails across the country.”

In the Kashmir valley too, the BJP faces major challenges. While its ally Sajjad Lone of the People’s Conference performed well in the parliamentary elections, others did not achieve success. Traditional regional parties like the NC and Congress are expected to have an advantage, and the PDP may also see gains. There is, however, some residual dissatisfaction with the PDP due to its earlier campaign against the BJP in 2014, and then its subsequent coalition with the same party. The NC appears to be the party that has made the most gains in the last four to five years.

There had been a consistent demand for the restoration of statehood before the elections. There is a widespread perception that unless the Central Government restores statehood, the next government may find it hard to address the aspirations of the people. Nevertheless, the formation of a local government will be a crucial first step toward raising voices and passing resolutions in the Assembly that could eventually lead to meaningful change. This election is seen as a clash between pre-2019 and post-2019 politics. Despite this, many across J&K, regardless of their identity, want statehood to be restored. Therefore, there is interest in parties, alliances or ideologies that promise a quick restoration of statehood.

The elections are expected to see a considerable increase in the voter turnout. Factors that previously discouraged participation, such as boycotts and threats from terror groups, are now largely absent. People are not likely to vote based on what is offered in party manifestos but rather to restore democracy in the region. After years of direct rule from New Delhi, there is a strong desire among the people to elect a government that can represent their voices.

Some narratives at the national level had suggested that Governor’s rule was beneficial and welcomed by the people. While it is true that there was widespread resentment against earlier state governments, as well as corruption and backdoor appointments in the government machinery, it is not a corollary that the people desire continuous Governor’s rule, regardless of how effective it may have been in the past. Given the current political scenario, there is a high possibility of a coalition government being formed.

The fact that candidates opposed to the Centre were elected in the parliamentary elections demonstrates the fairness of the electoral process. Given the positions of major parties, there is a possibility of the 2019 narrative making a comeback. However, the people are likely to focus more on issues of basic amenities and governance rather than ‘strategic’ concerns.

Confidence in the political process, as well as in eventual governance, will also depend on how much power the Chief Minister ultimately has. Local governance also needs a degree of autonomy to effectively address the region’s unique challenges and function as an effective grievance redressal model. The holding of elections is a significant step forward and offers a substantial opportunity to normalise the situation in the UT.