Anybody’s game in Maharashtra

MAHARASHTRA went to the polls on November 20. Along with the early risers who go for a morning walk, I, too, cast my vote. In deference to my advanced age, the polling staff ensured that I was the first to vote in my booth a minute or two after 7 am.

Two or three months ago, poll watchers had predicted the defeat of the BJP-led Mahayuti at the hands of the Sharad Pawar-mentored Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The MVA consists of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena, the Congress and the Sharad faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The majority of the exit polls favour the Mahayuti. If all or most of the women who received Rs 7,500 in their bank accounts vote for the Mahayuti, it will squeak through.

If you are the praying type, please pray that smaller parties, rebels and independents do not get to call the shots.

The MVA had comprehensively beaten the BJP-led alliance in the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra earlier this year. The morale of Congress workers, in particular, had gone up sharply following that performance. Hence, the MVA had a distinct edge going into these Assembly elections. That lead was reduced considerably following the ‘Ladki Bahin’ initiative rolled out by the ruling coalition. In this financially unviable project, every poor woman gets Rs 1,500 in her bank account every month to help her family cope with financial difficulties. It is a clear attempt to bribe voters that has escaped the Election Commission of India’s (ECI) proverbial hawk-eye.

The Congress’ response to the enthusiasm of women beneficiaries was to promise to double the freebie if the MVA was voted to power. This competitive populism might have weakened the resolve of women to vote for the Mahayuti, but it will spell doom for budget planners and the Finance Department people who wrestle every year with deficit financing.

I asked Mary, whom my wife had recruited as a domestic help 30 years ago when we returned home from Romania, if she had applied for the Rs 1,500 per month offered by the government to all ‘Bahins’. She said she had, but her request was turned down because at 60-plus she was overage! I also asked Anjana, who used to work for the family on the second floor in our building. She was all smiles. She had received Rs 7,500 in one tranche -- Rs 6,000 for four months together and Rs 1,500 as Diwali bonus! The money had been credited into her bank account. I guessed that Anjana’s vote was sealed for the Mahayuti.

There is a troubling query floating around. It became more relevant after the Congress promised to double the amount. Would the distribution of money continue after the votes were counted? Is there enough money in the government’s coffers? Voters today are better informed than they were 20 or 10 years ago. It is not easy to take them for a ride.

Taking these factors into account, the general verdict I hear being pronounced is that this election is going to be a close affair. Nobody can really predict the results. ‘Ladki Bahin’ could turn the tide in favour of the Mahayuti, but only just. It would have definitely done so had people been more convinced of the credibility of the political class. In 2014, Modi himself had reportedly promised Rs 15 lakh in every citizen’s bank account! It will be known on November 23 if the trust reposed by the Mahayuti in the ‘Ladki Bahin’ project has delivered the goods.

There are two contests inbuilt in the larger electoral contest. The ‘Marathi Manoos’ is eagerly waiting to learn the results of these two ‘side’ contests. The BJP strongman in the state, Devendra Fadnavis, had engineered schisms in the Shiv Sena and the NCP, both partners of the Congress in the MVA government that was in office over two years ago. It was proved in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that Ajit Pawar’s revolt against his uncle (Sharad) did not go down well with the large Maratha community that dominates the politics of Maharashtra.

The schism in the Shiv Sena was more proportionate. Uddhav Thackeray is the son of Balasaheb Thackeray and his anointed heir. Narendra Modi repeatedly describes the Gandhi siblings as heirs of a dynasty. But dynastic traditions in Indian culture are the norm. And political dynasties are a dime a dozen in almost every party in our country. Voters accept dynasty as a ‘natural’ phenomenon.

Uddhav has shied away from Balasaheb’s propensity to flex his muscles at the drop of a hat. It was high time that happened. Shiv Sainiks clearly preferred Uddhav’s balanced approach to the muscle-oriented approach which his cousin Raj advocated and practised. Incidentally, Raj is not only Uddhav’s cousin on his father’s side — their mothers were sisters.

Uddhav’s son Aditya has established himself in state politics as a young, promising leader to whom the environment and climate change matter more than they appear to worry other politicians. Both factions of the Sena, Uddhav’s and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s, are equally matched. In Mumbai, Uddhav appears to have a more loyal following. Shinde is popular in Thane. Only one outcome is certain. There is going to be a split in the ‘Marathi Manoos’ vote following the split in the Shiv Sena.

In hindsight, I dare say that the split engineered by Fadnavis in the Sena and the NCP have misfired. It did bring the BJP back in power in the state, but the interregnum would have been confined to just two years if the ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme had not been conceived. It all depends on how many ‘Bahins’ will bless the Mahayuti while casting their votes.

In Maharashtra, Modi does not presently command the awe and respect he does in the Hindi-speaking states of North India and, of course, Gujarat. Both Sena factions are claiming Balasaheb Thackeray as their own. Posters of the NCP (Ajit Pawar) had Sharad as their mascot! Sharad’s faction had to approach the ECI to bring down these posters.

If you are the ‘praying’ type, please pray that smaller parties, rebels and independents do not get to call the shots. Horse-trading is a scenario that needs to be avoided at any cost.