Allies close ranks as Opposition tries to regroup

Main akela hi chala tha janib-e-manzil; magar log saath aate gaye aur karvan banta gaya (I had set off alone towards my goal, but people came along and it began to turn into a caravan)

This famous verse by Majrooh Sultanpuri partially explains Rahul Gandhi’s standing in the context of the recent show of unity by 14 leaders of the Opposition.

The question that needs an answer is why the Opposition, barring the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), have started evincing interest in the young Congress leader who is yet to formally take over as the party chief.

The renewed interest in him is a result of many factors that have come into play, post the second wave of Covid-19, Rafale investigations in France, Mamata Banerjee’s spectacular victory in West Bengal, abrupt change of BJP chief ministers in Uttarakhand and Karnataka, Pegasus revelations and the Congress’ deft handling of the Navjot Singh Sidhu versus Captain Amarinder Singh battle for one-upmanship in poll-bound Punjab.

Many regional players ranging from Mamata Banerjee to Sharad Pawar and MK Stalin are fancying the Opposition’s prospects for 2024. In their collective assessment, due to political reasons, anti-incumbency and age factors, Modi will not be able to repeat his 2014 or 2019 parliamentary performance. There has been a pattern of sorts. Each time a towering, charismatic personality faces downfall, regional players and coalition politics have come to the fore. It happened in 1977, 1989, 1996 and in 2004 against the established and tall leadership of Indira, Rajiv Gandhi, PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Rahul’s stand on pinpointing the mistakes made by the Narendra Modi regime in tackling the Covid-19 pandemic has gone down well with a large section of the Congress leaders and outside. Ditto for his vocal and consistent stand on the Rafale deal. During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, he had questioned the sale of 36 fighter jets and coined a rather offensive ‘Chowkidar chor hai’ campaign. Privately, many senior Congress leaders had questioned Rahul’s bid to treat Rafale deal a bit like Bofors by the Opposition in 1987-89. In July this year, however, when a French judge was asked to investigate the 2016 Rafale fighter jet sale deal with India on suspicions of corruption, Rahul earned respect. It is a different thing that he has not won vocal appreciation.

Just like on Covid-19 and Rafale, Rahul directly took on the Modi regime on the Pegasus snooping row, overruling some in-house reservations that the masses would not understand its impact. Rahul kept asking, “Did the Government of India buy Pegasus? Yes or no! Did the government use Pegasus as a weapon against its own people?” It must be remembered that there is a qualitative difference between phone-tapping and hacking, that too by an external agency. It is far more grave and perplexing why the Indian State is reluctant to initiate criminal proceedings against those who violated privacy.

For many, Rahul’s body language seems to have become strong and assertive. In and outside Parliament, he is seen as far more attentive, engaging with party leaders and almost all among the Opposition ranks. Once again, his language or political grammar has remained uncompromising. It is just that he is getting more attention and cooperation from those who had excelled in floor and political management during the UPA years.

There is another significant feature that is binding the Opposition ranks. Rahul is not hankering for the office of the prime minister. He is not a contender unless the Congress does unexpectedly well in 2024. In Rahul’s scheme of things, unless the Congress crosses the “half of half” figure in Lok Sabha, i.e. half of the 272-mark, the grand old party would not be staking a claim for the coveted post. As things stand, the Congress would consider itself lucky crossing the 100-mark in the Lok Sabha. Thus, at an informal level, the word is out among the Opposition ranks that the office of the prime minister is up for grabs for any regional leader having the ability to net 30-plus parliamentary seats and find acceptability among the non-Congress groupings.

In any case, past precedence tells a fascinating story about how non-contenders invariably made the cut in 1977, 1989, 1996 and in 2014. While Jayaprakash Narayan was not inclined to take the high office, both Jagjivan Ram and Charan Singh were aspirants when the mantle fell on 77-year-old Morarji Desai. In 1989, VP Singh had positioned himself but in the National Front, the choice had fallen on Chaudhury Devi Lal. It was Devi Lal’s grace and an act of benevolence that saw the former Raja of Manda realising his dream. The 1996 United Front experiment had a problem of plenty — from Lalu to Mulayam Singh Yadav, they eliminated each other’s prospects till HD Deve Gowda emerged as a compromise and acceptable nominee. In 2004, when Sonia Gandhi declined to become the prime minister, at least two senior Congress leaders — Arjun Singh and Pranab Mukherjee — had considered themselves more deserving than Dr Manmohan Singh.

In short, coalition politics is layered, having wheels within wheels. Some regional players may be away from Lucknow, but they would play ‘pehle aap, pehle aap’ (you first) games to scuttle the prospects of one another. In fact, the outcome of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in early 2022 itself will have a tremendous bearing on national politics. The Opposition story may appear chaotic yet propitious.