Climate change, food security and poverty
Suresh Kumar
CLIMATE change is an environmental upheaval that has the potential of disturbing world economic order to the detriment of the poor, threatening their food security and livelihood and deepening distributive injustice. It has effects on food systems, structures, processes, food security and livestock.
Increasingly erratic weather patterns as a result of global warming are making small-scale farming and livestock management in many countries harder and precarious. The most serious visible consequences of climate change are: i) drought; ii) groundwater depletion; iii) storms and hailstorms; iv) spread of pests and insects; and v) ocean acidification.
Food production is largely dependent on weather across all nations despite the development of new technologies. Rain-fed agriculture still occupies most of the prime space in food production. In India, nearly 60 per cent of agriculture is rain-fed i.e monsoon-dependent.
The most important dimension of food security is food availability, which reflects current production, food stocks and net imports. Food buffer stocks are maintained to secure regular supplies and imports become necessary in times of periodic variations in food production due to climatic variations and other reasons.
Access to food is the economic dimension as there are a large number of poor households who can’t afford food despite its physical availability in a region; the third dimension reflects the way food is utilised and is related to the nutritional level, balance and diversity of food. The last dimension considers the stability of the other three dimensions over a considerable time to qualify for long-term food security.
The availability of food was the most important consideration of various governments in the past; however, the other dimensions of food security have gained considerable importance in recent times. But food availability is threatened by climate change, more importantly in developing countries, and that too for the poor who do not have adequate access to food owing to lack of purchasing power. Also, a decline in food production makes food scarce and expensive; and malnutrition high among the poor. It also increases farmers’ distress and makes poverty an essential aspect of food security.
Food production and productivity are affected by the changes in temperature, rainfall and sunshine on year-to-year basis differently in different locations. In Punjab, major climate changes have been experienced during the past about five decades of the Green Revolution. There has been an increase in minimum temperature (1-1.5°C) and increase in relative humidity (about 15%). Sunshine hours have also shown a reduction over these years in the state. Monsoon rain has been deficient in 16 of the past 20 years in Punjab; thus, wet days have declined, compelling farmers for greater extraction of groundwater for agriculture.
There are ample examples of changes in major crop productivity in Punjab which relate to weather volatility. Paddy productivity in the low-sunshine year of 2011 — which witnessed 36% reduction in sunshine hours — was 5,611 kg/hectare compared to 6,015 kg/hectare in the high-sunshine (+4%) year of 2009. Reduced sunshine hours during the vegetative phase and low temperature during grain-filling in 2017 led to low paddy productivity of 6,167 kg/hectare compared to 6,549 kg in the previous year (2016). In wheat, the most productive years e.g., 2018-19 (5,173 kg/hectare) and 2011-12 (5,097 kg) were characterised by mild temperature during grain-filling.
In India, the persistent poverty also challenges the sustainability of national food security. The net availability of food per day per capita in India was 503 gm in 1997 and it declined to 487 gm in 2017. One of the major measures taken by the government is to provide huge subsidies not only on food for the poor but also on water, energy and fertilisers. The food subsidy of India has risen from Rs 6,066 crore in 1997 to Rs 1,35,172.96 crore in 2017.
These subsidies are neither sustainable nor equitable and efficient. They are actually a major cause of ecological degradation with substantial damage to natural resources: soil and water. The quality of soil in Punjab is fast declining due to deficiency of micronutrients; groundwater that provides for 72 per cent of the state’s agricultural requirements is fast depleting. The groundwater table has declined from 8.16 metres in 1997 to 15.5 metres in 2017. The amount of subsidies would have been better utilised if used for long-term mitigation and adaptation measures. It could have been used for greater capital investment in agriculture, water and energy sectors and generated more wealth for landowners; but some subsidies are considered essential to keep food prices affordable.
Climate adaptation and mitigation measures would need to be evolved if not at the global level but at least at regional levels. Climate-resilient economy need to be premised on three key principles: Adapt, Mitigate, and Diversify. Such an economy would require greater investments in i) protection of livelihood and food security for vulnerable populations; ii) water conservation; iii) rainwater harvesting; iv) soil conservation; v) water desalination to maximise its usage; and vi) intelligent irrigation systems.
Food production should be sustained through climate adaptation and mitigation measures and climate empowerment through awareness generation and development and adoption of production practices that are more sustainable in changed weather conditions. It will also be necessary to diversify sources of livelihood of the poor. MNREGA in India is one such example, but there may be other options such as promotion agri-businesses through FPOs (Farmer Producer Organisations) and development of a social safety net through insurance and risk mitigation for private investors. Such programmes may require larger public spending, but that may be necessary for climate justice as richer people and countries are more responsible for the climate havoc. A climate ethics code should thus be evolved for all sectors: agricultural, industrial and services.
The author is Chief Principal Secy to the Punjab CM and International Policy Fellow with Cambridge University, UK. Views are personal.
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