BJP’s Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan strategy--why is the saffron party concentrating on seats it lost in 2018?
Vibha Sharma
Chandigarh, August 24
Last week the BJP took everyone by surprise by announcing candidates for Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections even before the declaration of poll schedules by the Election Commission. The party named 39 candidates for the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly and 21 for the 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly.
These were the seats the saffron party had lost in the 2018 Assembly elections.
This was also the first time the BJP announced candidates well before the poll schedules. There have been occasions when the party has declared candidates on the last day of filing the nominations, something that usually happens on incumbent or stronghold seats with more than one claimant.
However, the seats that the BJP announced in MP and Chhattisgarh on August 17 were the ones it lost in 2018. Sources say the party isconsidering early announcement of candidates on most of such seats in three key states—Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh—that poll later this year.
BJP lost the three states in 2018
Though the BJP eventually managed to take control of Madhya Pradesh, the ‘garh’ of ideological fountainhead RSS, by toppling Congress’ Kamal Nath government, the fact is it had lost the three key states in the last Assembly elections.
The saffron party had won 109 of the 230 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 15 of the 90 seats in Chhattisgarh and 73 of the 200 seats in Rajasthan in 2018.
Rajasthan’ dilemma
Though the party appears to be planning on early announcement of candidates for all seats it lost in the three states, in Rajasthan it first needs to clear the air regarding speculations around Vasundhara Raje—one of the top claimants for the CM post in the desert state.
Her absence from some recent party events and state poll panels have set off speculations regarding her political future and whether the central BJP leadership was looking beyond Raje for CM face? Though central leaders insist that panels do not feature many keystateleaders, observers call the absence of the former CMfrom thekey bodies “curious”.
Beating anti-incumbency in MP
That by announcing candidates on seats it lost in 2018, the BJP is aiming for an early bird advantage against rival Congress is evident. These seats are tough and the BJP wants its candidates to gain three months to prepare and campaign.
This apart, in Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan is facing a massive anti-incumbency of 18 years andthe central leadership believesthe factor will not affect prospects on the seats it lost in 2018. The party believes the losses it may incur due to anti-incumbency on seats it won may be offset by gains on seats it lost. Any gains on lost seats may also help recover from losses expected in difficult regions like Gwalior.
MP: The other issues
In 2018, the BJP won 109 seats, falling short of the halfway mark by seven seats, while the Congress emerged the single-largest party with 114. Though falling short of the majority by two seats, Kamal Nath managed to form the government with the support of SP, BSP and Independent MLAs.
He was, however, ousted via a coup led by Jyotiraditya Scindia who defected to the BJP with his 22 MLAs.
In these elections, apart from the natural anti-incumbency of 18 years, there is also talk of factionalism and unrest in party cadres especially in the Gwalior-Chambal region—the traditional stronghold of Scindia.
In the last elections, Congress won 26 seats and the BJP only seven of the 34 seats in the region. Local leaders now say it would have been better for the BJP had it allowed Nath to complete his term.
“Whether thoseCongress MLAs who came with Scindia or traditional BJP workers, no one is certain who will get the ticket in 2023. A lot of heartburn is expected once the candidates are announced. BJP’s traditional cadres also say they will not ask for votes for former Congress leaders contesting on BJP tickets,” they add.
In all the three states, BJP is pitted against Congress.
