Campaign ends in Haryana, much at stake for BJP, Congress
The campaign for the Assembly poll scheduled for October 5 came to a close on Thursday, and all eyes are now on October 8—the day of counting—when it will be known who gets the control of the 90-member Assembly.
In 2019, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 40 seats.
Haryana the first test
In the coming weeks, elections will also be held in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar. Political strategists say the results from Haryana are crucial, not just for the two main national parties—the BJP and the Congress—but also for their top leadership, especially PM Narendra Modi and Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi.
Unlike J&K (where, too, results will be declared on October 8), Haryana will be the first test, with a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
BJP partners
Strategists say that the BJP-led NDA will have to win at least two of the four states—Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Delhi—“or else, the knives will be out” within the saffron party.
The stability of the Modi government 3.0 will depend a great deal on NDA's performance in these Assembly poll, and Haryana will set the ball rolling. NDA allies, especially TDP and JD-U, will also be watching the coalition’s performance closely, they add.
Maharashtra and Haryana are both with the BJP and allies. Their performance remained below par in the Lok Sabha poll, with the ruling BJP-led dispensations suffering major setbacks in the two states as compared to the 2019 elections.
In Jharkhand, the performance of the JMM-led grand alliance’s performance also improved over 2019, when the NDA won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats there. This time, the NDA won nine Lok Sabha seats, down three, and INDIA bloc five seats, up by three.
Opposition leaders believe that the Lok Sabha results will affect Haryana, though, quoting the example of Delhi and Jharkhand, saffron leaders to counter this claim. In Delhi, they say, the BJP registered victories in all seven seats in the 2014 and 2019 General Election, but lost the Assembly poll to the AAP in 2015 and 2020.
Likewise, in Jharkhand, the BJP won 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, but lost to the JMM in the Assembly poll that followed, meaning that Lok Sabha and Assembly are a different ball game.
Though BJP leaders claim that the Congress “peaked” ahead of time in Haryana and now the two parties are neck and neck there, they are also aware of the strength of the ‘kisan-pehlwan-jawan’ combo that spelled trouble for it in the Lok Sabha poll. Rural/farmers’ distress cost it dear, with the BJP winning only five of 10 seats and its vote share dropping over the last parliamentary elections.
Congress' socialism card
Haryana is a test case for not just the Congress but also Rahul Gandhi and his newly-crafted brand of socialism-caste politics.
While the Lok Sabha elections gave his leadership the much-needed boost, favourable results from Haryana will help cement his position as a natural challenger to Modi. Haryana has been the battleground for the movement of farmers and wrestlers, and any favourable result will provide the Congress a talking point in other states.
While Dalit leader Kumari Selja shared a platform with arch rival Bhupinder Singh Hooda—which should be a relief for the senior leadership—whether the optics will manifest in the form of Dalit votes in the face of challenge from Mayawati's BSP remains to be seen.
Rahul, who has traversed a good distance in politics with his 'padyatras' ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, has also been experimenting with new planks, like social justice and caste census. According to experts, this is his way of providing his party a narrative against the BJP’s tried-and-tested Hindutva and nationalism plank. If the Congress does well in Haryana, it will be seen as an approval for his new brand of politics, while anything contrary, may break the momentum and force him back to the drawing board.
