BJP’s strategy of importing Congress rebels backfires in Himachal Pradesh

KS TOMAR

The BJP suffered a double whammy with successive humiliating defeats in two rounds of bypoll held on June 1 and July 10, dashing the hopes of its state leaders and high command to topple the Sukhu government.

Himachal Pradesh’s voters have sent a clear message to other states that the BJP’s strategy of importing leaders is proving counter-productive. This was evident during the Lok Sabha poll when eight out of 13 turncoats, primarily ex-Congress leaders or their family members under investigation, lost their seats.

The BJP leaders had hoped to win all nine bypoll in HP, driven by their relentless efforts to engineer defections from the Congress. However, the party only managed a net gain of three MLAs, with four Congress turncoats defeated on June 4 and two of the three independents who joined the saffron party losing their seats. Internal dissensions within the BJP compounded its woes, whereas the Congress, for a change, fought the bypoll unitedly.

Prime Minister and Union Home Minister had hinted during the Lok Sabha election campaign in June that Himachal Pradesh might see a new government after the results on June 4, but now the plan may be kept in abeyance for some time. State BJP leaders are demoralised after losing six out of nine MLAs who have been left to navigate the fallout.

‘Operation Lotus 2’ in disarray

Given the bypoll outcome, the BJP’s plan to topple the Sukhu government appears increasingly challenging. With the loss of two rebels out of six, Congress gained two seats previously held by independents who joined the BJP a few months ago. Congress, which won 40 out of 68 seats in the 2022 Assembly elections, now has 40 seats again.

Meanwhile, the BJP’s strength stands at 28 after gaining three seats. The failure of ‘Operation Lotus 1’ had placed the BJP in an embarrassing position, with the electorate disapproving of its policy of defections to grab power. This may discourage the party from undertaking similar misadventures in future, though unpredictability remains the hallmark of politics.

Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu focused his campaign on the accusations of the BJP’s misuse of money power, while the BJP countered by claiming that the CM had alienated and humiliated his MLAs, leading to their defection.

Political observers note that in addition to internal bickering, the BJP cadres did not accept the turncoats, resulting in four out of six ex-Congressmen losing their seats. BJP supporters did not transfer votes wholeheartedly, leading to defeats, except for the Hamirpur nominee, who narrowly retained his seat.

Notably, Hoshiyar Singh, who won the Dehra seat by a margin of 3,500 votes in 2022, lost to the CM’s wife, Kamlesh, by 9,399 votes. Similarly, KL Thakur, who defeated Congress nominee, Hardeep Bawa, by a margin of 13,264 votes, lost by 8,990 votes this time.

Analysts say the launch of “Operation Lotus 2” is currently shrouded in uncertainty as the BJP will require the defection of seven Congress MLAs to topple the Sukhu government, which may be an uphill task. Moreover, such unconstitutional action might have a reverberating fallout in Parliament with an enhanced strength of Congress and INDI alliance.

Hoped to win all seats

The BJP leaders had hoped to win all nine bypolls in HP, driven by their relentless efforts to engineer defections from the Congress. However, the party only managed a net gain of three MLAs, with four Congress turncoats defeated on June 4 and two of the three independents who joined the saffron party losing their seats.

— The writer is a political analyst based in Shimla