The Qatar crisis

THE endgame is clear in the high stakes chess that is being played by the Gulf monarchies. It is the process of isolating Qatar diplomatically and blockading it by the monarchies led by Saudi Arabia that is proving so difficult. Encouraged by US President Donald Trump, intentionally or otherwise, Riyadh is riding high in enforcing its writ on the Sunni world in the Middle East.

The crisis of enforcing Saudi hegemony in the region has been simmering for a long time. Riyadh sees Qatar as an upstart challenging it by following its own foreign policy and punching far above its weight by its immense gas reserves and running a successful pan-Arabic television channel in Arabic and English, Al Jazeera. Matters came to a head in the Arab Spring which elevated the Arabic version of the Doha-based channel to a cult status, being the only Arabic channel voicing popular opinions against the staid channels sponsored by the other monarchies.

That a tiny country like Qatar could defy the lead of Saudi Arabia in looking at the world rankled in Riyadh. A second bone of contention was Doha’s cordial relations with Shiite Iran, the declared enemy of the Sunni world. With President Trump receiving a royal welcome to Saudi Arabia on his first trip abroad in his new capacity and his tilt towards Riyadh was taken as a signal of American acquiescence in blackballing Doha, as his first tweets supporting Saudis suggested.

The Saudis compounded the problem by listing a set of demands for Qatar that would force it to wear sackcloth and ashes as it surrendered. Among them was to close down Al Jazeera and bring relations with Iran to the norm adopted by other Sunni monarchies. The rationale given for these extraordinary demands was Doha’s support of extremists and extremism best described by  the German foreign minister as provocative.

It is well recognised across the world that the shape Islam has taken in recent years and decades is in a large measure due to Saudi largesse in generously funding the Wahhabi strand through building of mosques and sending imams to preach this form of Islam. Doha entered the field much later and has publicly expressed its sympathies for the Muslim Brotherhood. Unlike Saudi Arabia, which welcomed the coup of the military ruler, General al-Sistani, and showered economic aid on him, Al Jazeera called it by its proper name.

The initial time given to Doha to obey the demands was extended by a couple of days after which the Saudi-led coalition, including the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt met in Cairo to leave sanctions in place without enhancing them. Those in place are severe enough — breaking diplomatic relations and isolating Qatar on land and in the air.

Qatar, one of the richest countries in the world, given its tiny population and immense oil and gas wealth, is dependent on its neighbours for essential food and other requirements. About 40 per cent of its food requirements came from Saudi Arabia across its only land bridge. And the rest of the world provided other essential requirements.

Initially, Iran and Turkey flew in essential food and other supplies to keep Qatar running, but it is an expensive way to live even for a rich country. Another bone of contention is a Turkish military base in Qatar, now reinforced. And President Trump had to tone down his enthusiasm for Saudi belligerence against Doha by being reminded by his advisers that Qatar hosts the biggest American base in the region comprising fleets of jet fighters and some 10,000 US servicemen. It is indeed the hub of the anti-Islamic State military operations.

Kuwait is acting as an intermediary in the Gulf crisis, to little effect thus far. It is true that the longer the impasse lasts, the greater will be the price Qatar will have to pay in keeping the country on an even keel. Perhaps the Saudis are banking on this aspect to keep the crisis going. Unless the Saudis are willing to reconsider their demands, no country — much less one with immense wealth — can accept such humiliating conditions.

One consequence of the major spat will be the end of the life of the Gulf Cooperation Council of Sunni monarchies. The Qatari hope seems to be that there will be other world powers that will seek to influence Riyadh in seeing the absurdity of the demands. Turkey is one regional country siding with Qatar, apart from Iran. The demand for Al Jazeera closure goes deeper because free media is anathema to the Gulf monarchies, which apply strict censorship to their own media outlets.

It is, indeed, Al Jazeera that has given Qatar an outsized influence so resented by Saudi Arabia, which considers itself as the big boy of the region. Doha would probably agree to make its contributions to outside groups in the Islamic world more transparent. And it could be prepared to acknowledge Saudi regional prominence in a symbolic way.

In a world of monarchies bound by customs and traditions, rulers have pronounced concepts of honour and valour. Part of the problem for any mediator would lie in safeguarding the amour propre of the concerned rulers, principally Saudi Arabia, particularly its present centre of power, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The Trump effect on the crisis cannot be wished away. By seeming to encourage Saudi rulers to spread their wings, the new US President has set in motion new currents in a region cursed by wars and terrorism, some of them of America’s own making. While his advisers are trying to pick up the pieces, the world waits for the next cataclysm.

The dilemma for the rest of the world is that it has dealings with Qatar and other Gulf countries, in the case of the developing world in the shape of providing employment to millions of their workers, apart from meeting their energy requirements. India, like others, is therefore averse to getting involved in what is essentially a family quarrel.