‘Emperor’ Xi’s long reign secured

Rajaram Panda

ICCR India Chair Visiting Professor at Reitaku University, Japan

As Chinese President Xi Jinping was re-elected to a second term as president, he struck a strongly nationalistic tone in his closing address to the annual session of the National People's Congress, the ceremonial parliament, with a thundering statement that China would never allow "one inch" of territory to be separated from it. This single statement not only reiterates China's assertive foreign policy but also heightens geopolitical tensions pregnant with perilous consequences. At the equal breath he warned his countrymen of the difficulties that they may have to endure to ensure China's peaceful rise. It is, however, open to interpretation how warning those who have had encroached its territory with the claim of not seeking hegemony but a rise that is peaceful are compatible.

With the constitutional provision that limited presidents to "two five-year terms" removed, it has become possible for Xi to stay in the post even beyond 2023. In his closing address, Xi reiterated his objective of building China into a "great nation" on a par with the US by the middle of this century. That seems to be China's ultimate goal. 

Taking clue from Mao Zedong's famous quote, "The east wind will prevail over the west wind", Xi remarked: "We must ride on the mighty east wind of the new era, charge forward with a full tank and steadily steer the wheel with full power, so that the giant ship of China carrying the great dream of more than 1.3 billion Chinese people will continue to cleave through the waves and sail to victory for a promising tomorrow."

Though he assured that the others need not feel intimidated as China was not pursuing hegemony and its development does not pose a threat to any country, Xi's intentions seem to be otherwise.  

Xi's unusual appointment reflects his administration's sense of alarm. His remarks on territorial issue that not an inch of its territory would be ceded could have been directed at many, including those seeking independence of Taiwan or "self-determination" in Hong Kong, Xinjiang or countries such as India, Japan or in Southeast Asia, which have territorial disputes with China. It is a virtual threat when Xi says that it is "absolutely impossible to separate an inch of the country's territories". 

Taiwan is likely to be the first to face the Chinese heat. China's tough stance on its boundaries could also be a message to President Donald Trump as well. Trump has not only threatened to raise tariff on Chinese goods but has also irked Beijing over a legislation that he signed, which encourages frequent exchanges between the US and Taiwanese officials. Even when Trump prepares his trade war declaration, China is laying out its red lines. Such differing perspectives did not deter Trump to make a telephone call to congratulate Xi on his re-election and agreed to continue their close consultations on issues of mutual interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi too congratulated Xi on a telephone conversation. But a mere telephone call cannot do away the irritants.

Having now the option to remain in power as long as he wants, Xi would be emboldened to pursue his hard-line foreign and economic policies. It is well known Trump is ambivalent, often making contradictory statements and maintains no consistency. At times, he has pressed Beijing to cooperate in reducing US trade deficit with China, and has imposed measures to restrict imports, targeted at Chinese products. By taking such punitive measures, Trump is creating a situation that could develop into a trade war. The long rope given to Xi could have been intended to deal sternly with the United States, which is seen coming on its way to rise.

Internally, Xi's domestic economic woes are too plentiful. The state-run enterprises have effectively collapsed. There is an urgent need to introduce reforms that would facilitate shifting its export-dependent economy to a domestic demand-driven economy. A real estate in urban areas and non-performing loans held by financial institutions could also explode into a major crisis. It is huge challenge to the leaders who would be working under Xi's leadership to carry out structural reforms so that the opaque economic and trade practices are resolutely remedied.

China has longstanding territorial issues with its neighbouring Japan over the Senkaku islands. Both also suffer from the shadow of history. If the strong economic content between the two neighbours from which either side is reaping huge benefits are not allowed to be disturbed, the political leadership ought to rise above their differences and try to resolve the contending issues plaguing bilateral ties. In particular, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his deputy Liu He ought to keep aside their hard-line stance towards Japan and come along with Prime Minister Li Keqiang who has been appreciative of the improvement of ties between the two countries in recent times.  

Li is considering making an official visit to Japan before June-end. This shows Xi's intention to stabilise China's relations with Japan at a time when its relations with the US has deteriorated both over trade and North Korean issue. Trump has expressed unhappiness that Beijing has not done enough to put pressure on North Korea to give up its weapon programme. China has not many true friends and if it is keen to continue its 'peaceful' rise, mending relations with its immediate neighbours will be of great strategic value.

On its part, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should be prepared to welcome Li to Japan with open arms. The next step should be for Abe to visit to Beijing to meet with Xi to establish a direct communication. Investing in such a way should facilitate creation of a win-win situation for both. As Xi has now a strong grip on power and with Abe succeeding in providing political stability in Japan after a prolonged period of instability, Xi-Abe bonhomie should be a welcome development in the interest of peace and stability in the region. There are many more issues that China confronts in the foreign policy front. The analysis of those is kept aside for another forum.  

Views are personal