Anti-BJP alliance not ruled out in Bengal

In a surprise development, Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Saugata Roy, who is a senior colleague of Mamata Banerjee, has reached out to the Left parties and the Congress to work with the TMC to defeat the BJP.

Who could have thought that Mamata Banerjee, who has shaped her entire politics on her opposition to the Left, would turn to it for help?

One of the reasons why she broke away from the Congress in 1998 was because the Congress was soft on the Left. For the same reason, she joined hands with the BJP and was part of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government.

And now, Saugata Roy is turning her politics on its head.

This underscores two trends. One, that the BJP is fast occupying the space that once belonged to the Indian National Congress.

Maybe, it’s not yet comparable to the situation that existed in the fifties and early sixties when the Congress was in power in states and at the Centre. But it is clear that the BJP wants a one-party-dominant India and makes no bones about it.

And two, though the regional satraps have been giving the BJP a fight in several states, and Mamata Banerjee is the feistiest of them, she too is now fighting with her back to the wall. And she has come to the conclusion that she may not be able to do it alone.

Saugata Roy’s ‘invite’ points to a readiness, which was not there earlier, for a ‘grand alliance’ of all forces opposed to the BJP — Left, Centre, regional — because the saffron party now threatens the existence of all of them. There is a growing sense in many state satraps that the only way they can ward off the BJP’s challenge is to come together.

Is this then a 1989 moment? In 1989, VP Singh had fashioned the National Front made up of the Janata Dal and regional parties, supported by both the right (BJP) and the Left, to vanquish the then dominant Indian National Congress.

The VP Singh government lasted only 11 months, given the contradictions it was riddled with. But it dealt a body blow to the Congress from which the Grand Old Party never recovered. The Congress, which had 415 seats in 1984, never got a majority in an election after that, except the one engineered by PV Narasimha Rao, who broke other parties to rule with a majority (1991-96).

Opposition unity is attractive in West Bengal because it would consolidate the minorities behind the anti-BJP forces instead of dividing them three ways: between Trinamool, Congress-Left, and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM. But how to ensure minority support without polarising the situation along Hindu-Muslim lines remains a challenge.

There are, of course, other problems. Workers of the TMC, Congress and Left have fought against each other, and would have to explain why yesterday’s foes have become today’s friends.

Then, there is the risk of a one-on-one fight in West Bengal, leaving the entire Opposition space open for the BJP.

Nor is the difficulty just about mega egos of political leaders. You cannot expect existing political entities to commit harakiri by ceding their space to the other, no matter how high sounding the goal may be.

The partnership, if at all it happens, would have to ensure genuine power-sharing, a constituency-level approach, and a painstaking attention to the minutiae to safeguard the interests of all partners. There may be constituencies where a fight, instead of unity, may be strategically beneficial. The Shiv Sena, for instance, has decided to field candidates in West Bengal, hoping to cut into the vote which would veer towards the BJP. Whether it will do so is another matter. Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, on the other hand, will cut into the Muslim vote which would have gravitated towards Mamata Banerjee.

Today, the Opposition needs not so much a knight in shining armour as experienced hands who comprehend the popular mood, and know how the political system works — people like Sharad Pawar.

Some have suggested that he should head the UPA. He has huge experience. Even at 80, he snatched victory out of the jaws of defeat in Maharashtra, weaning away the Shiv Sena from the BJP to install a non-BJP government in Mumbai. He knows all the state leaders well, be it Mamata, Lalu-Tejashawi Yadav, MK Stalin, Arvind Kejriwal, KCR, Jagan Reddy or Chandrababu Naidu, Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Siddharamiah or a Farooq Abdullah and others. He can pick up the phone and speak to them and they would consider what he had to say.

But the idea had few takers in the Congress. Given the wariness that exists about what he might do, Sonia Gandhi is unlikely to make way for him. Her main aim at the moment is to reinstall Rahul Gandhi as Congress president.

Despite all the problems that exist, it is possible for the regional parties, as also for the Congress, to counter the BJP at the state level, provided they pool in their resources, and make decisions on the basis of ground-level strength.

It looks that much more difficult nationally. This cannot happen without the Congress. The Congress has to put its own house in order first.

Given that reality, the regional parties could always float a coalition of state parties, like a ‘federal front’, with a view to strengthening each other in whatever way they can. As an entity, they would also be better placed to negotiate with the Congress where it has a dominant or a sizeable presence — Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry — if and when needed.

At the end of the day, it is ground-level shifts which are going to propel and shape the Opposition politics of the future, like the farmers’ protests taking place on the outskirts of Delhi, and the farmers have so far displayed a rare staying power and unity.

Saugata Roy’s overtures to the Congress and the Left and Congress reflect a weakening of Mamata’s position in West Bengal, the rapidly changing political landscape with the BJP becoming the dominant party, and the crying need now for the Opposition to come together, intelligently and around a grand theme.

It is here that the real challenge lies for these parties to figure out what they have to offer to the country which is different from the fare doled out by the BJP.