All set for high-stakes poll across the LoC

PAKISTAN-OCCUPIED Jammu and Kashmir, a sliver of the undivided princely state that has been under Pakistan’s occupation since 1947, goes to the polls tomorrow. Over 32 lakh voters in a region with a population of 43 lakh will elect a 53-member Assembly for a five-year term.

Of the 53 seats, 45 are general, while eight are reserved for women, technocrats and religious scholars. The region is usually part of the international narrative in the context of being described as a training ground for terrorist groups that are proscribed by various countries and multilateral bodies.

In the last few weeks, after the election date was announced, the region witnessed a high-decibel electoral campaign. The region has become an extension of Pakistani politics, particularly Pakistani Punjab. Former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s daughter Maryam Sharif is camping in the region and has become the most visible face of her party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan too held rallies for his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) near the election date. Lost in the barbs between the rival Pakistani politicians are the local specificities and larger forces that are equally important to understand the political and governance landscape of the region.

In terms of understanding the politics of the region, which is less based on ideological reasons as party hopping is common, one requires a rigorous understanding of the social structures which are quite different from the widely researched and known realities of J&K on the Indian side of the Line of Control. The earlier dominant groups of the region have been the Sudhans, Rajas, Dhond and Abbasi caste groups who live in the Haveli and Bagh districts of central Pakistan-occupied J&K. Actually, military service had been the prime source of livelihood even before 1947. The British army recruited men from the region in large numbers, sending many of them to the far-off shores of Europe during the two World Wars. The army as a career continued to be attractive even after 1947, only this time, the Pakistani army was the one recruiting them. The former President of Pakistan-occupied J&K, Sardar Mohammad Anwar Ahan, who retired as a major general in the Pakistani army, had told this writer in Rawalpindi that the Bagh and Haveli districts have one of the highest representations in the Pakistani army.

Because of the association with the Pakistani army, the country’s most important institution, the Sudhans and other caste groups from the region’s central pocket had initially dominated the political and social life of the region. It is sarcastically referred to as the Pajero culture after the fleet of Pajeros the elite own and their mansions, not only in the region but also in various parts of Pakistan such as Rawalpindi or rich enclaves in Islamabad. The ruling elite spend a considerable time in Islamabad, which is also considered the second capital of the region.

After the 1960s, because of large-scale migration to the UK from Mirpur and consequent remittances, rival elite social structures in the region were created. In the 1980s, over 50 per cent of Pakistan’s foreign exchange earnings reportedly came from the Mirpur diaspora living in Birmingham followed by Bradford cities of the UK. Some British nationals, who were born in Mirpur, claim that more than half of the population living in Britain on Pakistani passports originated in Mirpur. Mirpur is to the southern part of the region, adjoining Gujrat area of Pakistani Punjab and Jats are the dominant group here. In 1996, Barrister Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry, a Mirpuri Jat, was elected the prime minister on the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) ticket, which energised the diaspora. This was the first time a Jat became the prime minister or executive head of the region. It is not surprising that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan, who has repeatedly invoked the diaspora during his campaign in the region and has lived in the UK, picked Barrister Chaudhry to head the PTI in the region. His main rival is the sitting Prime Minister and PML (N) leader Farooq Haider, belonging to an influential sub-caste of Janjua Rajputs. Janjua Rajputs, as Pakistani-American author Shuja Nawaz notes in his book, Crossed swords: Pakistan, its army, and the wars, have a long history of joining the cavalry in the military because of their light build and are present in Pothwari-speaking areas, including Pakistan-occupied J&K and Rawalpindi. Author Shuja’s own brother Asif Nawaz, a Janjua Rajput, was the fourth Pakistani army chief from August 16, 1991, until January 8, 1993.

On paper, there is a separate Constitution for Pakistan-occupied J&K and the chief executive is called the Prime Minister and the constitutional head is known as the President. The big elephant in the room is the institutional control of Islamabad. In May 2010, when PPP was ruling Pakistan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan-occupied J&K, Farooq Haider, opposed the appointment of the police chief, of the rank of inspector general, by the federal government without any consultation with him. A Bill passed by ‘Azad Jammu and Kashmir council’, an unelected body chaired by the Prime Minister of Pakistan and based in the posh F-5 sector of Islamabad, didn’t require assent of the President of the region.

In June 2018, taking cognisance of the international embarrassment due to the institutional control by unelected council, the 13th amendment to the “Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Constitution” was passed. This reduced the council to an advisory body though it could reportedly still retain 20 per cent of the income tax generated from the region to cover the administrative expenditures. However, last year, there were attempts by the ruling PTI in Islamabad to revive the council’s powers, though the draft proposals were reportedly rejected by the ruling PML(N) dispensation in Muzaffarabad.

While there are greater forces that otherwise constrict or shape the work of elected political structure of Pakistan-occupied J&K, the last few weeks of electoral campaigning have once again provided a rare opportunity to understand the complexity of the region with a greater focus.