A Tribune Analysis: Why upcoming Assembly elections in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand will be watched closely
Vibha Sharma
Chandigarh, June 10
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA Government got down to business at the Centre, in Maharashtra NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar urged party workers to be ready for the state Assembly elections later this year. “The power in Maharashtra will be in our hands,” Pawar was quoted as saying, high on the success of his faction winning eight of 10 Lok Sabha seats in in the state as part of the MVA alliance and the BJP-led coalition’s subdued performance in the recently concluded 2024 General Election.
In the months that follow till 2025, Assembly elections will be held in five states — Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Delhi and Bihar. While Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand are in the line this year, polls are also expected to be held in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir in 2024.
Though Prashant Kishor’s predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha election favouring the BJP remained quite off the mark, especially in West Bengal, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, the political strategist recently suggested that for the Narendra Modi-led coalition government to remain on track at the Centre, the NDA will have to win at least two of three states—Haryana, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.
“Or else, the knives will be out”, some independent political analysts also agree, saying that the stability of the Narendra Modi government 3.0 will depend a great deal on the NDA performance in the Assembly elections due over the next couple of months. That “NDA allies, especially TDP and JD-U, will be watching the coalition’s performance in states closely”, saffron supporters also accept, adding that “it is only but natural.”
At present, two of the three states, Maharashtra and Haryana, are with the BJP and allies.
Saffron party-ruled Haryana and Maharashtra elections are expected around October, followed by Jharkhand where the JMM-led grand alliance’s performance this time improved over 2019 when the NDA won 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats there. This time, in Jharkhand, the NDA won nine Lok Sabha seats, down three, and INDIA bloc five seats, up by three. In Haryana and Maharashtra too the ruling BJP-led dispensations suffered major setbacks as compared to the 2019 elections.
Though Opposition leaders claim that the Lok Sabha results will impact Assembly elections, saffron leaders counter by quoting the example of Delhi and Jharkhand. In Delhi, they say, the BJP registered victories in all the seven seats in 2014 and 2019 General Elections but lost Assembly elections to the AAP in 2015 and 2020. Likewise, in Jharkhand, the BJP won 11 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 but lost to the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in the Assembly polls that followed.
However, they say that “like any other poll, be it Lok Sabha, Assembly or local bodies”, the BJP will fight these elections with full might “because it owes good governance and development benefits to all voters.”
“The BJP is aware that the next couple of months are crucial, it has to rebound from current perceptions in rural areas, Dalits and farmers in states like Maharashtra and Haryana. Rural/farmers’ distress cost it dear in these two states, a reason why after being sworn in for the third term, PM Modi signed his first file authorising release of 17th instalment of PM Kisan Nidhi to benefit 9.3 crore farmers. One can expect more benefits for rural India,” BJP supporters add.
“Ours is a government fully committed to ‘kisan kalyan’. It is therefore fitting that the first file signed on taking charge is related to farmers’ welfare. We want to keep working even more for farmers and the agriculture sector in the times to come,” the PM today said, while signing the file.
