17 sitting Congress MLAs bite the dust, poor show in Jat strongholds too
The Congress suffered its third consecutive defeat in the Haryana Assembly elections today as it could manage only 37 seats, falling nine short of the magic mark of 46 in the 90-member House. The loss of party’s state president Udai Bhan from Hodal constituency, by a margin of 2,595 votes, added to the disappointment.
The ruling BJP, on the other hand, put up a stunning show —securing a record 48 seats to better its earlier highest tally of 47 in 2019.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the Congress, which had fought in an alliance with Aam Aadmi Party, had won five of the 10 seats, while the remaining went to the BJP. The Congress was ahead in 46 Assembly constituencies compared to the BJP’s 44. The INDIA bloc had garnered 47.61 per cent of the votes, with the Congress alone getting 43.67 per cent. The BJP’s vote share stood at 46.11 per cent.
Six months down the line, the Congress’ vote share has dipped to 39.09 per cent and its seats to 37. The BJP’s vote share is marginally higher at 39.94 per cent.
The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD)–Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) alliance’s 5.96 per cent vote share, likely from the Jat and Dalit community, appears to have hurt the Congress.
Overconfident after its Lok Sabha poll performance, the Congress failed to capitalise on its advantage, especially with Haryana being the first state to witness Assembly elections.
In 2019, the Congress had won 31 seats with a 28.08 per cent vote share. It has gained only six more seats this time. The Congress has struggled to establish a strong organisational presence in the state over the past 10 years due to factionalism even as the BJP has a strong presence at the grassroots. Ultimately, it came down to the Congress candidates to manage their booths personally.
The party failed to gauge the anti-incumbency sentiment against its sitting MLAs, with 17 of them losing their seats. Seven of the 37 seats were won by margins below 5,000 votes. It also lost 10 seats by margins below 5,000. Former Hisar MP Brijendra Singh lost from Uchana Kalan by 32 votes, while Amit Sihag was defeated in Dabwali by 610 votes.
Analysts say the Congress remained a divided house during the elections as its top Dalit leader, Kumari Selja, was reportedly upset over most of the ticket being awarded to leaders close to former CM Bhupinder Singh Hooda. She remained absent from campaigning for two weeks, giving ammo to the BJP to call its rival “anti-Dalit”. Though she eventually returned, she continued to express her displeasure in the media, claiming her community aspired to see a Dalit CM.
Consequently, the Dalit vote, which had multiple claimants in the form of INLD-BSP and Jannayak Janta Party–Azad Samaj Party (JJP-AZP) alliances, failed to consolidate behind the Hooda-led Congress. Additionally, the apex court’s judgment in August, allowing for sub-categorisation within the Scheduled Caste quota, swayed some deprived SC voters towards the BJP.
The BJP’s campaign targeted Hooda and his tenure, trying to convince the people that jobs won’t be offered on merit. While there was resentment against the BJP regime due to the farmer agitation, Agnipath scheme and the protest by women wrestlers, the sentiment appeared to affect only the Jat votes. In the end, it seems caste divisions prevailed as non-Jats largely voted for the BJP and Hooda’s slogan of “Chattis Biradari” failed to resonate.
Even in Jat-dominated seats, the votes were divided. The Congress lost 18 of the 35 seats where Jat votes exceeded 50,000. In the Ahirwal belt, the Congress was nearly wiped out, getting only one of the 11 seats. In Hooda’s strongholds of Rohtak, Sonepat and Jhajjar, the party managed to win only eight of the 14 seats. It clinched only two of the nine seats in Palwal and Faridabad. The party drew blank in Rewari, Guurgram, Panipat and Karnal.
