The Tribune, Chandigarh, India

manifesto 2014
Cong plays its ‘aam nagrik’ card
The latest party document talks of economic resurgence and secular fabric, with focus on the new ‘aam nagrik’. It’ll have to be seen if this can draw votes, as many promises made in the 2009 manifesto remain unfulfilled.
By Aditi Tandon

A party’s election manifesto release should normally be a spirited event crafted on the one hand to woo electors and on the other to fire up cadres for the battle ahead. But the Congress manifesto launch on March 26 was a simple affair shorn of the trademark lustre party old-timers associate with the occasion in 2004 and 2009.

The plainness of the event bore testimony to the fact that the country’s oldest political party was not interfacing with the voters at the best of times. It was seeking a fresh mandate against a gloomy backdrop of recent months of jobless growth, economic slump, unprecedented graft and backbreaking prices, all legacies of the Congress-led UPA government.

That’s why Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, accused by party colleagues of not talking enough to the people, took upon himself to tell the country why the UPA was better than the BJP-led NDA. His prime target in the process was BJP’s prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi, who has become a symbol of Congress opposition and middle class angst against the ruling party’s record of inflation and corruption.

“People talk of the Gujarat model, but the Congress model is the best for our country. It recognises the need for expanding the economy to provide lasting solutions to poverty. Our record is visible to all who care to look at it…,” he said, listing 13 indicators (duly incorporated in the manifesto) on which the Congress fared better than the NDA regime of 1998.

Topmost among these was economic growth, on which, ironically, the Congress has faced the severest criticism recently — a reason why it has placed this sector on highest priority in the 2014 Lok Sabha manifesto which promises 8 per cent annual growth. The Planning Commission, however, recently forecast a lower trend for the years ahead.

But the Prime Minister remained defensive. Citing that a decade of the UPA rule saw average annual growth rate of 7.5 per cent against 6 per cent during NDA, he insisted: “Our record is superior to that of NDA.” Congress president Sonia Gandhi and vice-president Rahul Gandhi, flanking the Prime Minister at the last manifesto launch the three will attend together, concurred effusively, rubbishing anti-Congress predictions of opinion polls and predicting UPA-III’s return.

The backdrop

Though the Prime Minister, Sonia and Rahul have been maintaining that the UPA delivered impressive development, but could not ‘market it well’, people routed the Congress in four out of five state elections last year, forcing the party to acknowledge inflation and corruption as poll issues and waking up to the challenge. They rejected Congress’ development in Delhi and its welfare policies (free medicine scheme) in Rajasthan warranting introspection within the party as to what went wrong.

It’s against this backdrop, coupled with the rise of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP’s visible urban middle class domination thanks to Modi’s aggressive presence, that the Congress began drafting its manifesto five months ago. Having lost the aam aadmi and middle class support base to AAP and BJP, respectively, Rahul began wooing a new constituency during manifesto preparation — India’s 80 crore skilled and semi-skilled workers (fishermen, porters, labourers) sandwiched between the poverty line and middle class. He promised the ‘aam nagrik’ a future in the middle class — something prominently reflected in the manifesto. The Congress began acknowledging the concerns of India Inc realising its drift towards Modi due to frustration over lack of economic reforms and the resultant slump. That’s essentially why Rahul aggressively wooed corporates by addressing Ficci and CII events last year.

Looming issues

Economic slump: The government’s failure to push economic reforms put India among the ‘least favoured’ investment destinations. The Bank of America-Merrill Lynch survey recently said fund managers had cut allocations towards emerging markets, including India, to reach the lowest level in two years. The December quarter growth was just 4.7 per cent. Lack of timely environmental appraisals to projects, inability to push goods and sales tax, direct taxes code among other reform Bills, made India unattractive to investors. Minister Jairam Ramesh, involved in manifesto drafting, says: “Modi’s obduracy blocked the GST, the single-most important 2009 poll promise we could not deliver.” The promise has been repeated in this manifesto.

Jobless growth: The National Sample Survey Office recently said during the UPA-1 only four lakh jobs were generated annually as against 12 million during the NDA’s rule. The growth during 2004 and 2009 averaged 8.43 per cent. The UPA delivered jobless growth questioning Congress’ focus on rights regime and welfare schemes like MNREGA. Employment rate dipped to 39.2 per cent in 2009 as against 42 per cent in 2004 and 39.7 per cent in 1999. The latest figures are no good. If population growth is considered, employment actually declined.

Corruption: Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index 2013 placed India at 94 among 177 countries and blamed its show on scams involving government officials and politicians. This despite Rahul’s stress on the Congress creating an anti-corruption code, starting with the RTI in 2005 to the Lokpal in 2014. The much-needed electoral reforms to bar criminals from politics were not pursued.

Inflation: Prices of onions soared to Rs 100 per kg and tomatoes Rs 80. Food inflation reached double digit, playing havoc with poor and middle-class households, alienating them from the party.

Major response shifts

Rahul effect: Old-timers in the Congress say the past manifestos looked more like academic journals rather than corporate drafts with defined deliverables. But the 2014 document is different, though in line with the Congress’ broader pro-poor and pro-rights ideology. “This is an experimental manifesto with newness which reflects Rahul’s takeover of the party and the ongoing change of guard,” says a party veteran.

That explains its corporate style introduction at the launch when a short film was played for the first time to depict five months of consultations Rahul had with people during the drafting. He met 10,000 representatives of minorities, SCs, STs, women, youth, etc. at 27 locations across India in a bid to “take the manifesto drafting out of closed doors to the people”. Many people’s demands are reflected in the documents such as a fisheries ministry and 25 per cent reservation for women staffers in police stations.

Big biz: While carrying forward its rights based agenda to provide right to health, housing, pension, dignity and entrepreneurship to the poor, the Congress for the first time laid down a detailed economic roadmap for 2014-2019, pledging to return to 8 per cent annual growth rate and improving India’s Ease of Business Ranking from 135 to 74. The target approach to growth is new to Congress’ poll charter which also stresses zero aversion to FDI and PPP in infrastructure to create jobs. The party has recommitted itself to passing GST and direct tax code Bills in a year and proposed Prime Minister-led national investment authority to push delayed projects and a national environmental appraisal and monitoring authority for speedy environment clearances. A special envoy to track black money is suggested amid BJP’s clamour around the issue and the apex court’s observation that recoveries would ease taxpayers’ burden by 30 per cent.

Job agenda: From talking in generalities about jobs for youth to 100-day agenda for creating 100 million jobs in five years, the manifesto seeks to target 100 million new voters this time. The share of manufacturing in the GDP will be raised to 25 per cent by 2022 to improve business environment. Rahul acknowledged this shift in approach, saying: “For India to grow, the only way forward is partnership between business and the poor.”

Politics: The party positioning as a ‘secular liberal nationalist’ alternative with an ‘inclusive vision’ vis-à-vis ‘narrow-minded communal alternative with an exclusionary doctrine’ forms part of the first chapter of the manifesto titled ‘Congress or BJP’. The Congress harps mainly on Modi’s ‘individualistic style of working’ making the upcoming battle as one between a party and a person. It marks a shift from the Congress versus BJP narrative of 2009. Though Modi is not named, he is all pervasive. The draft says: “We don’t respond to issues by lighting the fires of communal hatred or handing over the structures of democracy to one person. We respond through democratic means.” Rahul admits: “2014 election is a battle between Congress’ inclusive ideology and Modi’s exclusionary ideology”.

Third Front/allies: In 2009, the Congress termed the ‘third front’ as a recipe for chaos and a grouping of ‘opportunistic parties’. It slammed the Left, prime movers of the Front, saying it supported UPA-1 for four years by exercising authority without responsibility. This time the Congress is silent on the ‘third front’ perhaps because it hopes to use the alternative post-election to keep Modi out of power. Party insiders say: “Keeping Modi out of power is important for the secular fabric”. Also unlike 2009 when the Congress flaunted its ‘like-minded allies’ in the poll document, this time it has steered clear, reflecting awareness about its dwindling ally base. However, Rahul was defensive when asked about the dearth of allies. “We have an alliance in Maharashtra and Bihar. The BJP has none.”

‘Aam nagrik’: Unlike the 2009 manifesto which referred to ‘aam aadmi’, the Congress has settled for ‘aam nagrik’ this time. This is the segment Rahul has pledged to lift to the middle class in 10 years. The shift to a new constituency was warranted after AAP walked away with the ‘aam aadmi’ base.

UPA VERSUS NDA

Poverty: UPA pulled 14 crore people out of poverty in 10 years

Food grain: Grew to 263 million tonnes against 213 million tonnes in 2004

Installed power capacity: 234600 MW against 112700 MW 10 years ago

Mobile subscribers: Over 95 crore; 3.36 crore 10 years ago

Coal production: 554 million tonnes a year against 361 million tonnes 10 years ago

Rural roads: 3.89 lakh km against 51,000 km 10 years ago

Public health spending: Rs 36,322 crore, five times more than 7,248 crore a decade back

Minority bank accounts: 43 lakh against 14 lakh

Education spending: Rs 79,451 crore against Rs 10,145 crore

International trade: $800 billion against $142 billion

The promises, then and now
Economic growth
2014: 8 per cent annual growth in three yrs; fiscal deficit of 3 per cent GDP; passage of GST/direct tax code Bills in a year; 10 crore jobs in five years; 1 trillion investment in infrastructure; no retroactive taxation; special envoy to track black money
2009: Inclusive high growth (no targets set but 7.7 per cent average rate achieved); GST Bill passage by April 2010 (not done); skilling of youth (no major success)
The challenge: The manifesto does not reveal sources of funding to get $1 trillion or create 100 million jobs. The Election Commission in its manifesto guidelines issued recently told parties to reflect the sources of finances to fulfil poll promises and seek voters’ trust only on promises that can be kept.
Right to health
2014: Universal health coverage through a right; public spending on health at 3 per cent GDP (less than 1 per cent now; 12 Plan projects at 1.8 per cent); three-year diploma in public health; 60 lakh jobs
2009: Health security for all (not achieved)
The challenge: Universal health coverage requires a spending of 3.8 per cent of the GDP on health. Dr Vinod Paul, HoD paediatrics, AIIMS, says: “The manifesto favours an insurance-driven model to health coverage which will spiral healthcare cost and cause equity gap. It is silent on strengthening the public health system.” K Srinath Reddy, Public Health Foundation of India, says: “The promise of public spending at 3 per cent of the GDP is pending. Hope it is realised now.”
Social welfare
2014: After RTI and NREGA in 2005 and right to food and fair compensation for land in 2009, the Congress has promised right to homestead by expanding Indira Aawas Yojana to cover poor rural households and Rajiv Aawas Yojana to cover urban poor households; pension for entire labour class, widows, destitute, the disabled
2009: Comprehensive social security for those at risk (single-woman headed households, bonded labourers, etc. (not achieved)
The challenge: No mention of finances
SC/ST and minorities
2014: Introducing quota in education and jobs for the economically weaker sections of all communities without affecting the current SC/ST/OBC quotas; pursue reservations for backward minorities; national consensus for affirmative action for SC/ST jobs in private sector; skill development vouchers of Rs 10,000 to unemployed graduates
2009: Affirmative action for SC/ST — a 2004 manifesto promise — (not done); equal opportunities commission law promised (not done)
The challenge: Minority sub-quotas within 27 per cent OBC quota face court hurdles; industry not ready for quotas for SC/ST in private sector, wants competence to reign; source of financing vouchers not known
Governance
2014: All pending anti-graft laws to be passed; Administrative Reforms Commission’s recommendations to be implemented; judicial appointments and accountability Bills to be passed; special envoy to track black money; decriminalisation of gay sex
2009: Police reforms to be accelerated (achieved summarily); judicial reforms to cut court delays (achieved summarily)
The challenge: UPA was in power for 10 years, but it could neither speed up reforms nor impress upon Switzerland to reveal holders of foreign accounts to trace black money. Opposition is blaming it on lack of political will.
Women
2014: Women’s quota Bill will be passed; 25 per cent job quota for women staffers in police stations
2009: Women’s quota Bill will be passed so that elections to the 16th Lok Sabha are held on new basis (not done)
The challenge: Evolving political consensus on the Bill, just like the Congress evolved one on the Lokpal Bill to counter AAP’s anti-corruption crusade and blunt BJP criticism.
Education

The RTE was a right move but some states have still not met the targets. A file photograph

2014: Moved from Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan to Shreshtha Shiksha Abhiyan
2009: Make quality education available to all (not achieved but RTE Act was implemented with infrastructure targets under it yet to be met by some states)
The challenge: Quality education requires quality teachers and training institutions which are in acute shortage. Funding not clear when social sector spending is being cut compared to previous budgets.