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world THE world has done all it could to eliminate the Taliban but without success. The US-led multinational forces have used all the tactics they could think of to make the Taliban irrelevant in the Af-Pak region, but at the end of it all they have indirectly accepted that the extremists cannot be handled effectively with military might alone. The invincibility of the Taliban came out as an ugly reality when the US initiated a move in Afghanistan to bring all the Taliban factions to the negotiating table to get them inducted into the Hamid Karzai government in Kabul. President Karzai made considerable efforts to win them over. There were attempts to hold talks in Qatar on the Taliban's insistence, leaving aside the groups (bad Taliban) which refused to have any kind of dialogue with Kabul under the prevailing circumstances. But nothing concrete came out. The Taliban groups, particularly the most powerful one led by the Haqqanis in Afghanistan, perhaps, are convinced that they will re-capture power after the scheduled foreign troop withdrawal in 2014. President Karzai, too, has indirectly been sending out messages that the world must learn to live with the Taliban. That is why he has been stating on different occasions that Pakistan has to play a major role in the efforts to establish peace in Afghanistan. The Haqqanis and some other not-so-prominent Taliban groups have their lifeline in the ISI headquarters in Islamabad. The Taliban factions have, however, provided sufficient proof that they are friends of neither Islamabad nor any other government. They have their own agenda and clearly defined support base among the tribes in the Af-Pak region. President Karzai knows more than anybody else that the Taliban threat will make it almost impossible to hold the presidential elections, due in 2014, in Afghanistan. He himself may not be a candidate after serving two terms as President, as the Afghanistan constitution does not allow a third term. But he can field any of his brothers to contest the polls so that power remains with the Kazai family, of course, courtesy the US. The Taliban factor has forced him to come out with the idea of advancing the polls and holding these in 2013, when he will feel comfortable to manage the democratic exercise to his advantage. The situation in Afghanistan remains very alarming and may continue to be as such in 2013 because of the failure to tame the Taliban. It is not without reason that the Brussels-based International Crisis Group has predicted that the Karzai government cannot survive after the 2014 NATO troop withdrawal. This means conducting elections in 2014 will be too risky a task to think of. This uncomfortable reality has forced the US to give a fresh thought to how to manage the post-2014 likely scenario in the Af-Pak region. President Barack Obama has invited President Karzai to Washington in the first week of January for finalising a new strategy for Afghanistan. This indicates that the US military presence in the war-torn country will not end despite the troop pullout plan. In what shape the US maintains its presence remains to be seen. The situation may be clearer in 2013. Interestingly, if elections in Afghanistan are finally held in the coming year, the battle of the ballot there will coincide with the scheduled polls in Pakistan. Both countries may have a regime change, but the government likely to be formed in Islamabad after the 2013 elections may be different in its approach to the Taliban. Most probably, the next government in Pakistan will be either led by Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League or Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf. Both are known for their soft corner for the Taliban. The extremist movement may have more advantages in 2013 than it had in 2012.
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